[Sixstrings]

There has been zero net job creation since December 1999. No previous decade going back to the 1940s had job growth of less than 20 percent. Economic output rose at its slowest rate of any decade since the 1930s as well.

Middle-income households made less in 2008, when adjusted for inflation, than they did in 1999 -- and the number is sure to have declined further during a difficult 2009. The Aughts were the first decade of falling median incomes since figures were first compiled in the 1960s.

And the net worth of American households -- the value of their houses, retirement funds and other assets minus debts -- has also declined when adjusted for inflation, compared with sharp gains in every previous decade since data were initially collected in the 1950s.

"This was the first business cycle where a working-age household ended up worse at the end of it than the beginning, and this in spite of substantial growth in productivity, which should have been able to improve everyone's well-being," said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/01/AR2010010101196.html?hpid=topnews

I've griped about this so much now, I really don't have anything to say about it anymore. Just thought that chart was pretty stunning and worth sharing. It's beyond obvious that we have a major, systemic problem in this country.

[Novus]

The true picture is worse than that chart appears. It does not distinguish between the quality of jobs or the net good those jobs bring to society. Manufacturing jobs went out and were replaced by McJobs such as working at McDonalds or Walmart. Something fundamental changes when young people entering the work force can no longer for instance become a shoe maker or other honest trade that actually involves making something tangible. A million people flipping burgers and selling Chinese plastic trash does not make a society better off. It used to be said that one manufacturing job would stimulate the need for the creation of three other jobs. So when America lost a manufacturing job it would cause a cascade effect that would to take out three more jobs.

Instead of trying to reverse the trend TPTB encouraged the the final act in the largest misallocation of resources in the history of Mankind. Literally $trillions were spent on the the construction of particle board plastic homes that paved over pristine farmland only accessible by cars. They mortgaged our future to pay for a way of living that had no future. When the bottom fell out of that scheme partly thanks to $140 oil the jobs were gone. America ended up with a lost decade because we squandered away our investment resources on making trash and sending the wealth creating jobs overseas. For the life of me I do not understand why nobody has been held accountable for this travesty of waste.

[Homesteader]

For the life of me I do not understand why nobody has been held accountable for this travesty of waste.

Because to one degree or another we all participated.

[mefistofeles]

They mortgaged our future to pay for a way of living that had no future.

Yeah but I enjoy living in my McMansion! Lol.

However in all honesty society misallocates resources on a tremendous level. The Polywell fusion reactor only has $12 million dollars worth of funding. Some college football coaches will earn more in salary than is currently being budget for Polywell's fusion project:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/2009-11-09-coaches-salary-analysis_N.htm

The ceiling goes much higher. Southern California's Pete Carroll and Florida's Urban Meyer, whose teams have won or shared four of football's last six national championships, are among a trio earning $4 million or more, USA TODAY's study shows.

Carroll was at close to $4.4 million in 2007, the most recent year for which the private school's tax reportings are available. Meyer, whose No. 1-ranked Gators are chasing their third national title in four years, is making $4 million after agreeing to a new six-year, $24 million deal in August. His average annual raise: 23%.

This guy is being paid more than Polywell is getting for developing energy that might save the world. Even if Polywell fails it was a worthwhile endeavor. But college football. I think society is more jacked up than we can even imagine.

[PrestonSturges]

With every soldier in Iraq and Afghanistan costing $1,000,000 to protect our trillion dollar dependence on foreign oil, our GDP has gone poof.

Now if we put the GOP back in charge to save us from the "Muslim fascist," we can have a BOHICA.

[MarkJ]

Many moderate to high paying full-time goods producing jobs with benefits have been replaced with low paying part-time, temporary or seasonal service industry jobs with no benefits, high turnover, no chance for advancement and frequent slowdowns, layoffs, terminations etc.

Jobs once filled by single full time employees with benefits are now filled by 2 or 3 lower paid part-time employees without benefits and/or filled by temp workers.

Many workers have to work 2 or 3 jobs many miles apart in different regions to get 40 hours per week. Much of their low income paychecks are eaten up by the expenses of child care, travel time, winter driving, gas, oil and vehicle maintenance, repairs, wear and tear, accidents etc.


Many of the workers that fill these jobs are younger healthy teens, college students and younger adults still living at home, not people that need jobs to put a roof over their heads.

Many unskilled/semi-skilled jobs are currently tougher to get due to education/experience/knowledge/transportation requirements, drug testing, background checks, aptitude testing, physical assessment, probationary periods, worker performance reviews etc.


One Example:

We are currently seeking Manufacturing workers for temporary and temp-to-hire positions in the Albany/Schenectady area. Candidates must have previous manufacturing experience and a good work history to be considered.

Responsibilities may include some or all of the following:
• Standing for 8-10 hours per day
• Lifting/moving 30-50lbs of material with regularity
• Working in a team environment
• Make adjustments to equipment/machinery as needed
• Work on a production line where safety/quality/efficiency are stressed
• Using some power tools (drills, screwdrivers, mallets, etc.) to assemble products
• Ability to be flexible and learn various production lines as needed by our client
• Ability to stay late, come in early on an as needed basis (sometimes last minute)To apply for these positions, please submit your work history/resume along with a cover letter detailing your experience and qualifications.

Candidates may be asked to pass pre-employment drug screen, physical assessment, and/or criminal background checks prior to start based on our clients’ needs. Work schedules will vary based on client needs. These positions are NOT on bus line routes, thus you must have reliable transportation.

* Location: Albany, NY
* Compensation: $8-10/hr, temp, temp-to-hire"

The good paying manufacturing jobs are in high tech, nanotech, design, setup, maintenance, or troubleshooting of computerization, robotics, automation, specialized tools, specialized equipment etc.


One of the best paying jobs in the region for unskilled/semi-skilled workers is working at the Walmart Distribution Center. Pay starts at around $16 per hour. Many former skilled tradesmen are leaving the trades to work for the warehouses and distribution centers due to pay and benefits.

Since manufacturing pay is so low, and layoffs are so common, many former manufacturing workers are taking jobs as drivers, warehouse workers, fork lift drivers or working as home health care workers, or retarded/handicapped/senior care workers.

One of my tenants was only making $8.75 per hour after working in manufacturing for 3 years, plus they had no benefits and were constantly laid off. They took a job driving handicapped/retarded clients which pays $12 per hour plus benefits with no layoffs.

[ian807]

No mystery. Technology and wage arbtrage continue to suppress USA job growth.

Dumb repetitive jobs are going away because of technology and wage arbitrage. As artificial intelligence improves, more jobs dissappear. As long as poor countries exist, work well be sent there.

On the not so plus side, we in the USA are well on our way to being a poor 3rd world country.

Won't effect the rich though. Never does.

[Sixstrings]

More doom:

U.S. growth prospects deemed bleak in new decade

ATLANTA (Reuters) - A dismal job market, a crippled real estate sector and hobbled banks will keep a lid on U.S. economic growth over the coming decade, some of the nation's leading economists said on Sunday.

Speaking at American Economic Association's mammoth yearly gathering, experts from a range of political leanings were in surprising agreement when it came to the chances for a robust and sustained expansion:

They are slim.

Many predicted U.S. gross domestic product would expand less than 2 percent per year over the next 10 years. That stands in sharp contrast to the immediate aftermath of other steep economic downturns, which have usually elicited a growth surge in their wake.

The decline has sapped a principal source of wealth for U.S. consumers, whose spending is the key driver of the country's growth pattern. The steep drop in home prices has also boosted their propensity to save.

"It's very hard to see what will replace it," said Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel laureate and professor of economics at Columbia University. "It's going to take a number of years."
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6021LK20100103

Scary thing is, I really think this forecast is overly optimistic -- I expect much worse. But even assuming this best case, the 2% growth per year is disastrous (in view of population growth, and getting the currently unemployed and underemployed into living wage jobs).

We really need 4% annual growth just to keep the status quo going. And when you factor in increasing public debt burden, 2% growth is even worse.

It's interesting how all the economists keep repeating the same line, "I don't know what's going to replace the consumer economy." Fact is, you can't replace a job that you send overseas. And you can't replace a job that you ship in a foreign H1B visa worker to do cheaply. You can't replace jobs you give to Central American illegal immigrants.

When you keep giving everything you have away, there is no replacing, you're left with nothing.

Here's a prediction for you.. in 5 years you'll start hearing American nurses griping about all the foreign H1B visa immigrants competing for their jobs. And you'll hear all manner of health care industry workers complaining about outsourcing to India, for things like medical billing to test-reading done over the internet. In the next 5-10 years, one of the last bullwarks of a living wage in American work will begin to crumble in on itself under the pressure of foreign workers and outsourcing.

Another trend for the next decade: lower wage, lower benefit "telecommuting" jobs. Cuz let me tell you something, companies who want to save money on bricks and mortar won't hesitate to save it in your paycheck too. Right now the average wage for these telecommuting jobs is like $8 an hour for grueling, back-to-back work.

To sum up, in the coming decade we'll finally see healthcare and government jobs collapse under their own weight. The global market demands wage destruction, and it will have it. Outsourcing and insourcing of H1B visa foreigners will continue, it will get so bad that finally enough Americans will be out of work that they'll wake up and want to do something about it. But by that time it will be too late. The transfer will be complete, the nuts and bolts of the American capitalist engine will have been long hence dismantled and sold to China for scrap metal.

(oh, and the usual caveat.. if Peak Oil is imminent, then everything will be much worse)

[Pretorian]

Well what did you want? US already created millions of useless jobs, one more useless than another. If you dont like whats going then just shut the border.

[Kristen]

Honestly, is anyone surprised? Not only did we support outsourcing in the beginning so our corporate gods could make a profit, but we willing bought things at huge price compared to what it actually cost to make. Capitalism is behaving exactly as any philosopher or idealist would have guessed. It benefits few and takes away from everyone. So the jobless continue to be ridiculed as lazy or incompetent, but it's not really their fault the system sets one up to fail.

[MarkJ]

The largest complaints we hear from job seekers aren't about the lack of jobs, pay or benefits. Their largest complaints are about the part-time, temporary and seasonal nature of jobs, frequent layoffs, no overtime, no bonuses, no incentives, little chance of promotion, probationary periods, performance rating systems, demotions, suspensions, fewer perks, fewer breaks, zero tolerance pre-employment screening etc.

If many of these workers show up a little late, miss work, make small mistakes, or they fail to meet performance standards, they're scolded by management, suspended, demoted or terminated.

Many employers are using performance standards and performance rating systems which eliminate many older workers and younger out-of-shape workers that can't handle multi-tasking and hours of working at an ultra-fast work pace without fatigue while maintaining quality, accuracy, safety etc.

Hiring younger healthy workers and hiring more full-time-part-time workers ensures that employee performance remains near peak, plus eliminates overtime, burnout, mistakes, accidents and gaps due to full-time employee turnover.

Due to employer preference for younger, healthy energetic workers, its' very tough for many unemployed, under-employed manufacturing workers and tradesmen to find work due to their age, health, physical fitness and physical appearance.

[frankthetank]

Yeah.. i had an employer that found any way possible to get rid of the old/inefficient workers. Some of the shit they said/did was borderline legal in my book. I can't believe no punches have been thrown. There were some pissed off people. They once sat me down for a few hours because they didn't like my attitude. After that i worked part time!! Company was owned by a bunch of banker millionaires from NY. The board of directors each made 7 figures a year and there were a lot of them. Fucking assholes.

[rangerone314]

I wonder how many jobs you can create with 2% GNP increase... especially seeing how the wealthy 1% scoops up so much of any economic "increase"...

It would look like the 2010's will also have 0% job growth, even without peak oil kicking in.

Maybe we should consider the possibility of a "lost century"...

[Daniel_Plainview]

(oh, and the usual caveat.. if Peak Oil is imminent, then everything will be much worse)

Oil is hovering around $81.50 with the zombie economy at zero real growth (stripping away the phony govt stimulus) ... If somehow the US can muster 2% or 4% actual growth (good luck with that), I shudder to predict how much higher oil prices will increase.

[phaster]

There has been zero net job creation since December 1999. No previous decade going back to the 1940s had job growth of less than 20 percent. Economic output rose at its slowest rate of any decade since the 1930s as well.

thought that chart was pretty stunning and worth sharing. It's beyond obvious that we have a major, systemic problem in this country.

for the most part I've never liked the shrill rants of conservative talk radio or fox "fair and balanced" TV news because they are pretty much like those scared un-worldly individuals on the other side of the world who never take time and look at the big picture.

For example one of the five pillars of islam is Zakāt or "alms giving" to the poor and needy. In Christianity which there seem to be many of "in name only" on the aforementioned "conservative" media outlets, I never seem to hear god fearing jesus freaks talk about trying to improve the lot of those less fortunate, which if memory serves was in beatitudes (see Matthew 5:3 Blessed are the poor in spirit: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.)

Since this forum the peak oil web site is about economics, I'd say one of the reasons there was basically zero job creation since 1999 is because too many people in the USA have lost their moral compass in terms of worshiping material goods and crap that in the long term does not promote job growth.

I'm in san diego, which is one of the regions which had an explosive growth in terms of real estate prices, and from what I saw first hand I witnessed I am not too surprised that job growth is basically zero because the over all mentality does not value skill sets or education.

This past weekend for example the San Diego Chargers beat the Washington Redskins, 23 to 20. So this means the Chargers will play their first postseason game at 1:40 p.m. on Sunday, Jan. 17

What caught my eye in the paper this past monday was a picture of a kid holding up a sign that sadly captures why there has been zero job growth.



As long as society as a whole places more value on stuff that does not create lasting value, society and the economy will reap exactly what was planted IMHO!