[Sixstrings]

The real question, he says, is what kind of jobs they'll be. "The worrisome trend is something I've called the polarization of the labor market."

Katz says the U.S. has experienced this for the past 15 years or so. It results in strong job growth for the high-paying jobs and the low-paying jobs at both ends of the labor market, but less growth in the middle to replace the well-paying manufacturing jobs the U.S. is losing.

Projections for the next decade from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest that elements of that basic trend will continue.

Dixie Sommers, assistant commissioner for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, recites a list of the 10 occupations that the BLS expects will provide the greatest number of new jobs over the next decade. These include:

1. Registered nurses

2. Home health aids

3. Customer service representatives

4. Food preparation and serving workers

5. Personal and home care aides

6. Retail salespersons

7. Office clerks

8. Accountants

9. Nursing aides, orderlies and attendants

10. Postsecondary teachers

Six of the top seven fastest-growing occupations are low-skill, low-wage jobs.
http://internsover40.blogspot.com/2010/01/where-are-jobs-in-next-decade.html

Interesting.. not even Obama's own Bureau of Labor Statistics thinks we'll have any "green jobs" in the top ten. I guess this is the future, folks -- waiting on the aging baby boomers hand and foot, whether in the hospital, as a home health aid, a "personal aid," serving them at the Golden Corral buffet, or ringing up their plastic Chinese stuff at the Dollar Store.

Seriously, 7 of these 10 jobs are minimum to low wage, low benefit, precarious fields of employment. Of the health fields in this list, only registered nurses currently do okay -- but I predict their wages will fall as more Americans move into that field, and as we import even more Filipino H1B visa nurses. But even today, everything below a nurse earns crap -- we're talking $8 or $10 an hour for CNA'S, home health aids, etc. And that's the same range for the food service jobs, the customer service jobs, and the office clerks.

Now, it's not all bad news.. there will be high paying lines of work if you can get it, but as far as total numbers the growth is all at the bottom of the barrel.

EDIT: Interesting omissions.. zero IT jobs in the top 10 (I guess all that growth will be in India), also notice no housing industry growth (contractors, construction, real estate agents). And of course no manufacturing growth, green or otherwise -- no surprise there.

[jdmartin]

Nice find - nice list of jobs too. I bet we can really be a consumer economy on those jobs...

[eXpat]

Don´t forget security! that should be an important job in the times to come (I hope )

[SeaGypsy]

I saw exactly this coming and switched to an apprenticeship in nursing about a year ago, from aboriginal art. I make a bit less than what I did, but I am pretty sure art will go down the gurgler while nursing will remain a strong employment position. I would rather make an ok wage than none at all. I would rather be able to get a job on my own terms than beg for one on the employers terms.

[Ayoob]

I doubt that list has any bearing at all on the reality that is awaiting the future cashiers.

[Novus]

I don't think healthcare will be able to stand on its own for very long. How much healthcare can min-wage earners afford anyway. Social Security and Medicaid are unfunded going forward and with mostly min-wage earners paying into the system it won't be long before those big government programs are all bankrupt. If you think healthcare jobs can pay their way then that like is a snake eating its own tail. America needs to stop chasing bubbles and start making things again and not just for domestic use but for export too.

[Jotapay]

You forgot this one.

Internment Camp Worker

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iB5xwKJC ... _embedded#

http://www.goarmy.com/JobDetail.do?id=292

Internment/Resettlement Specialist (31E)
Enlisted Officer Active Duty Army Reserve

Internment/Resettlement (I/R) Specialists in the Army are primarily responsible for day-to-day operations in a military confinement/correctional facility or detention/internment facility. I/R Specialists provide rehabilitative, health, welfare, and security to U.S. military prisoners within a confinement or correctional facility; conduct inspections; prepare written reports; and coordinate activities of prisoners/internees and staff personnel.

Some of your duties as an Internment/Resettlement Specialist may include:

* Assist with the supervision and management of confinement and detention operations
* Provide external security to confinement/corrections facilities or detention/internment facilities
* Provide counseling and guidance to individual prisoners within a rehabilitative program
* Prepare or review reports and records of prisoners/internees and programs

Yay, the police state has a job for me! I knew it was good for something! Thank you Bush and Obama!

[MarkJ]

Many locals that worked skilled trades and manufacturing jobs in the past are taking warehouse/distribution jobs, local truck driving jobs, or working in disabled/retarded care facilities due to decent pay, better working conditions, full-time work, fewer layoffs, overtime, benefits and chance for advancement.


Since these types often have multiple skills, trucks, vans, tools, garages, workshops and equipment, many continue to work side jobs performing auto service, snow plowing, landscaping, home improvements, light construction, plumbing, heating, electrical etc.

In the local trades, the demand for top performing licensed plumbers, electricians, heating, cooling and refrigeration techs remains good whether they're job seekers or self-employed.

Local manufacturers and warehouse/distribution businesses are also looking for higher skilled maintenance workers with commercial plumbing, electrical, heating, cooling and refrigeration experience.


Since many former goods producing workers are making much less money, their wives and kids must enter the workforce, so they're taking warehouse/distribution jobs, home health care type jobs and lower-skilled nursing/hospital senior/retarded/disabled or child care jobs.

There are plenty of private duty home care jobs that pay cash as well. Many of our senior customers pay home health care aides for overnights, weekends and help with cooking, cleaning, driving, shopping etc. These workers often get paid for sleeping on the job, surfing the net, watching television etc.

The physicians, RNs, LPNs and other health care professionals in our family complain they have too much work. Most are working tons of overtime, on-call work or working double shifts. We've been trying to plan a large family ski trip, but nearly everyone is too busy, or on-call.

[PrestonSturges]

Somebody has to implant those New World Order microchips

[jdmartin]

Many locals that worked skilled trades and manufacturing jobs in the past are taking warehouse/distribution jobs, local truck driving jobs, or working in disabled/retarded care facilities due to decent pay, better working conditions, full-time work, fewer layoffs, overtime, benefits and chance for advancement.

Since many former goods producing workers are making much less money, their wives and kids must enter the workforce, so they're taking warehouse/distribution jobs, home health care type jobs and lower-skilled nursing/hospital senior/retarded/disabled or child care jobs.
.

I usually like your posts Mark but this one borders on Utopian or Cornucopian thinking. Look at the lines I emboldened in your post. First you state workers are leaving these jobs for *decent pay* among other reasons..then you immediately state "Since so many former goods producing workers are making much less money..". This is fantasy island thinking. NOBODY I know willingly gives up a better paying job for the reasons you listed. No, the reason they give up those jobs is for the reason you left out. How your paragraph should have read was:

"Many locals that worked skilled trades and manufacturing jobs in the past are taking warehouse/distribution jobs, local truck driving jobs, or working in disabled/retarded care facilities - due to decent pay, better working conditions, full-time work, fewer layoffs, overtime, benefits and chance for advancement, but mostly because their better paying job has been eliminated and they're desperate for work. And, since many former goods producing workers are making much less money, their wives and kids must enter the workforce to try to make up the difference".

There, now that would read better.

[SeaGypsy]

+1 JDMartin.
Working in health but unable to take leave? Are they working to live or living to work?
My plan from the outset in changing jobs to nursing was to be able to dictate my own terms of employment. I worked 3 months 76 hours a week for the 2 biggest providers in my state. I then put my resume out to every care organisation in the state with very specific requirements of my employer. I wanted 1/3rd time off. I.e. I work anything from 2 to 4 months followed by half whatever I have done in leave, with my choice of dates after 2 months. I got 3 offers and took the one which paid all of my expenses whilst at work, flew me to the capital for 4 days each 2 weeks and looked most interesting in terms of training development.
I never would have been able to dictate terms like this in the arts. It was 12 month to 2 year contracts with 4 weeks leave. Plus competition was fierce. Plus the arts were full of wankers/ baloney people/ jazzed up used car salespeople. Health care is a very broad field and has a humanist focus which draws a lot of good, kind people. I don't regret the change 1 little bit.
Those who feel like they can't get out of going to work every day and massive overtime, are either in too much debt or some righteous trip about not disappointing the employer. The former is foolhardy, the latter is out of date. Life is too short to be either a debt slave or a 'work comes 1st' drone.

[MarkJ]

First you state workers are leaving these jobs for *decent pay* among other reasons..then you immediately state "Since many former goods producing workers are making much less money, their wives and kids must enter the workforce, so they're taking warehouse/distribution jobs, home health care type jobs and lower-skilled nursing/hospital senior/retarded/disabled or child care jobs."

Both statements are accurate. Many goods producing workers are leaving their jobs, want to leave their jobs, or avoiding goods producing jobs due to low pay, poor working conditions, layoffs, slowdowns, no benefits, no overtime, little chance for advancement.

Those goods producing workers that can't find other work, don't look for other work and/or have taken even lower paying goods producing jobs make much less money these days, so their wives and kids have entered the workforce.

Often the wives and kids working unskilled service industry jobs make more money than the unskilled and semi-skilled goods producing workers that were once the breadwinners of the household.

Due to employer preference for females, attractive workers or young, strong, healthy top performing workers, many of their wives and kids are more successful than the former breadwinners.

Just one example: One of our office worker's husband makes $8.50 an hour currently at a local manufacturer with few benefits, fewer and fewer hours and more frequent layoffs. His brother in roughly the same situation makes $8.65 working at another manufacturer. His wife, our employee makes $11 per hour with benefits, overtime, perks and gravy working conditions. His son makes $20 plus per hour with benefits working at the Walmart Distribution Center. His step daughter makes $12 per hour with benefits working in group homes with retarded clients. His step daughter's boyfriend makes $15 per hour with benefits as a local commercial delivery driver.

The largest employers of full-time unskilled and semi-skilled workers in the area are disabled/retarded care providers, warehousing and distribution center jobs. These industries effectively replaced low-tech unskilled and semi-skilled factory, mill and tannery jobs in the region years ago.

We have manufacturing jobs that pay well, but the growing high tech and nanotech jobs require higher education, certifications, specialized skills and/or multiple skills.