[lonewolf]

Recently watched most of "Zeitgeist 2008" (Google Forum, a la TED) on youtube. A few of the oil-related statements: (I didn't note which presenter/video these came from)

"Between 2000 to 2008 humans used 20% of all the petroleum consumed in history."

"From 2000 to 2008, humans consumed 20% of all [remaining] known petroleum reserves."

In recent decades [unstated interval] "while oil consumption went up by 23%, the price increased 16-fold".[which equates to each 1% increase in consumption ('demand') > price increased 70% ] <- while. no doubt plausible to the gullible (and thus happily ignored), I happen to find these precise statements to be historically dubious/suspect in specific, but not wrt to the trend.

So, as supply inevitably decreases, will (can) price continue to increase by 70% per 1% supply constraint? Alternate phrasing of the question I'm seeking consensus on:

At what price per gallon (2009 USD) does said unit-price in-and-of itself precipitate the "Great Unraveling" of Western 'Civilization' ? (as if precipitation of fecal-matter hasn't already commenced locally/personally)

At what (acknowledged) decline rate in 'production' (availability) is this unit price achieved (by whatever mechanism)?

or
At what additional percent reduction in the current claimed "Proven Reserves" does this occur?
Or, how much more must we extract before the 'futures' markets intervene and make sure that the remainder is 'connedserved' for use by the military to 'protect' the prospects of the spawn of today's most 'elite' monkeys?

or In what year and month is (or was) this 'achieved'?

Given that 80% or more of the belligerent bipedal buffoons on Earth are only here at all due exclusively to oil consumption (et al) by their parents and themselves, and also that 100% of what 99+% of us/you do on/to the Earth is from and by the direct abuse of formerly sequestered Carbon, how much longer do the malevolent misery monkeys continue to 'rule' (subjugate, defile, rape) the Earth?

I will abstain from having an opinion on this, since, as everyone here knows, primates are so much 'smarter' than mere canines.

[gnm]

Well, I'm of the mind that we got our answer to what price of oil would break the back of the economy. $150.00. At $150.00 gas was rapidly hitting $5 in many parts of the US so I'm going to say sustained prices at $5.00. Yeah yeah I know you already pay that in England etc etc but you have to take into account the lack of availability of public transport and the dependency on trucking etc in the US. $5.00 gas drives everything up rapidly. That and we have to cough up for health care, college, etc...

-G

[Daniel_Plainview]

In the US, I suspect that gasoline priced between $5 to $6 per gallon begins to suffocate both the transportation industry as well as industries reliant upon transportation (e.g., food industry). A full-blown "collapse" could easily occur at that price level if the remainder of the economy is sufficiently fragile.

[davep]

We've already paid nearly 10 dollars a gallon in Europe and nothing collapsed. I'm guessing 20 dollars would be a different story.

[mos6507]

Don't assume $4 is the breaking point. It was the point at which people started to change their behaviors, but life was still basically BAU. BAU with a lot of bitching and moaning, but still BAU. But it would really take gas at $10 and beyond to create a TEOTWAWKI situation.

[PrestonSturges]

At $10 people would start actually carpooling

[gnm]

I think we need to qualify it with "right now dollars" since economic factors could cause gas at $10/gal as well due to inflation or deflation. In right now dollars $10 would certainly put commuting out of reach of a lot of people but I know quite a few who would continue BAU. Problem is when those kind of prices filter down through the distribution, farming, and other channels. We started to see that at $5 with all kinds of shipping surcharges and fuel increases on local distribution, propane delivery, trash pickup etc...

Maybe if we did it in oz gold/gallon it would make more sense.

Gasmon, I think it all comes out even if you add health care, etc and all the other costs subsidized by your fuel taxes to our "cheap" gas here - If you looked at it that way with average fuel consumption it probably comes out around the same cost here too..

-G

[efarmer]

$10 would get us to Uglyville in a hurry and $6 would get us there on the scenic route.

[gnm]

$10 would get us to Uglyville in a hurry and $6 would get us there on the scenic route.

+1 couldn't have said it better myself....

-G

[Revi]

I think most people wouldn't even notice until it gets to around $3.50 per gallon, and we should be paying over $5 a gallon.

Think of this, you get to zoom aound in a motorized couch with 500 pounds of your stuff for less than a quarter a mile.

Wouldn't you pay that?

[gollum]

I voted $5 with the belief that our present problems are at least in part due to the $147 oil we had a year and a half ago.

[Outcast_Searcher]

People can adapt far more than most folks on this site seem to want to admit.

Assuming it takes several years to occur instead of all at once, I suspect that while $20.00/gallon would certainly crimp the economy and cause LOTS of bitching and moaning, that life would go on.

Less distant vacations, expensive electronic gizmos, fancy meals out many times a week, gigantic houses, 300+ HP cars, etc. and more focus on practical considerations like getting enough to eat, staying warm, etc. will be required, of course.

At least in cities where public transit is an option, and things are moderately close together. OTOH, in rural areas where things are spread out and average incomes are more modest, I think most families are pretty screwed by $15.00 a gallon.

[gollum]

Yes some will adapt, I believe as a country there is a huge amount we can do to adapt, like alternate energy and four day work weeks, however thus far our government seems like an alcoholic who can't even admit he has a drinking problem. Let's not even get into the fact that he is stealing booze from the poor neighbor down the road!

[anador]

I paid £1.075 / litre at supermarket today (discounted !!)

4.55 litres = 1 UK Gallon, Thats £4.89 / UK gallon
3.785 litres = 1 USA gallon, Thats £4.07 / USA gallon
Todays exchange rate is £1 = $1.59410

So we Brits are paying $6.49 for a US gallon (cheapest supermarket price) AND we have more tax rises to come soon.

We grumble, we pay it.

As Yazz sang, "The only way is up" !!!

Gasmon

You brits didnt utterly destroy your city fabric and rail system however.

You prolly drive far fewer km per day in far more efficient cars.

[MarkJ]

When diesel, heating oil and kerosene were pushing $5 per gallon, we were still waiting in line at convenience stores behind people buying beer, cigarettes and multiple $5, $10 and $20 scratch-offs after they filled up their cars, trucks, vans, SUVs, snowmobiles and portable fuel containers.

We had a modest increase in amount of heating and heating fuel customers that made price driven furnace, boiler, water heater, zoning, control upgrades, but demand for insulation, weatherization, windows and doors was low.

Rather than insulate, weatherize or replace grossly oversized, grossly inefficient furnaces or boilers, customers applied for HEAP, Emergency HEAP, they installed wood stoves, pellet stoves, coal stoves, they used electric/kerosene space heaters, they switched from auto-fill to will-call and/or bought kerosene and diesel at the pumps on a daily basis.

We had customers making 30 plus mile round trips every day or two in trucks or SUVs to pick up a few gallons of kerosene for their furnaces, boilers, water heaters, space heaters and salamanders. Our sister saw dozens of our heating customers at her store buying only 2 or 3 gallons of kerosene per day, yet they'd spend a fortune on lottery, beer, cigarettes, subs, sandwiches etc.

We'd service HEAP and free furnace/boiler service/repair/replacement customers that cried poverty, yet had multiple newer cars, trucks, SUVs or toys like motorcycles, snowmobiles, boats, quads or waverunners.

One of our gas stations that still has gas with no ethanol has a large customer base that make 100 mile plus round trips to buy fuel for vehicles, boats, snowmobiles and equipment. They have a large base of customers that still buy $5 at a time.


When fuel prices were at their peak, carpooling was nearly non-existent, the suburban and rural transit lines were often empty/nearly empty and school buses were often half empty as well. High school kids were still driving to school and parents, nannies, relatives and friends were still driving younger kids to school. They'd let their vehicles idle for 20 to 30 minutes while waiting to pick up their kids since they'd arrive early to get a premium parking space.

Locally, we have what we call the "Scratch-Off Idle" during the winter. People leave their vehicles running while they're in convenience stores purchasing scratch-off tickets and cigarettes. When they get into their running vehicles, they light up then rub off their scratch-off tickets. They then take their winning tickets into the store, then buy more tickets. This cycle repeats itself until they lose, they run out of money or they're late for work.

Even the people that call themselves poor have such high standards of living and so much support from social programs that they have dozens of areas where they can eliminate spending, reduce waste, or trade down.

[Gerben]

$5 is normal for Europe. It made Americans buy European style cars when the price went that high in the US. $10 made many Europeans bicycle a lot more and car-pool more. And use public transport a bit more. You need a significantly higher price for a small behaviour change. $10 won't result in a complete collapse. $15 won't be a complete collapse, but people will have to shift their behaviour a lot. It will impact the economy negatively. But will also stimulate new developments.

[ian807]

We've already paid nearly 10 dollars a gallon in Europe and nothing collapsed. I'm guessing 20 dollars would be a different story.

Curious. How long did $10/gallon last?

My off the cuff formula for economic impact is: Price of Gas X Size of transportation sector X size of economy = economic impact. In Europe, they're smart enough to still use trains and public transport. In the USA, not so much. I expect that high gas prices will hit us harder in the USA.

[gollum]

Collapse can't be seen as an event so much as a series of events, as affordability declines the ability of society to continue BAU declines, at $5 a gallon people buy European style cars, at $10 they car pool and bike and a lit of discretionary spending disappears, at say $20 only the very rich drive, at $40 most jobs disappear....At no point (other than the eyes of history) do the majority of people in the society actually view the collapse clearly as it will seem like just hard time to those involved.