[Xei]

Hey, sorry if this is a stupid noob question but where can I get access to a clear graph of oil production over the last half century or so? I can't easily find any graphs which go beyond 04 or so.

I was wondering what the general outlook about the peak is here, by the way. I've been thinking about it recently; I used to be pretty depressed and thought it meant the end of civilisation, but nowadays I'm thinking more along the lines that it'll just cause large damage to poorly prepared countries (probably meaning the US and UK for example). There are a few countries out there where most of the electricity is produced by renewables and they're approaching 100% (Swiss, Norwegians...). Electric cars are going on the market over the next couple of years... hydrogen for the Haber process can come from electrolysis... and these countries tend to be politically neutral too, and with stable governments. What would cause unbearable conditions or societal collapse..?

Even in the UK we have loads of untapped coal which, if things really got bad, could, within a few years, be used to power houses and create oil, causing a cushion effect after a few years of austerity and hopefully then enough political will to sort out the situation.

Thanks.

[copious.abundance]

Source (PDF)

[TheDude]

world crude oil production - Google Search

[Xei]

Thanks The Dude, and I am aware of the existence of Google Search, but those look like '06 data and like I said, I was after the whole decade's.

OilFinder: cheers.

Interesting, looks like it's been a linear trend for quite a while rather than an exponential one. I thought we might be going through a plateau but apparently not.

[Xei]

I've just realised the interesting result of comparing those two graphs.

Most of the earlier predictions seem to have significantly underestimated how much more oil could be produced... only the top four seem viable now.

[TheDude]

2008 production was 85.5 mb/d. EIA.

[lonewolf]

IS "Xei" the employer/handler of OF2 or vice versa?

Not than anyone 'cares' what I and others here think, BUT, these and like-minded Fascist goons got to go if y'all want to ever return to a minimally respectable discussion forum.

[AirlinePilot]

Ahh I see another techno-cornucopian has been born...

Xei....if that is truly who you are..there is a lot to learn from many other sources instead of just looking at production graphs. I suggest you start by doing some research into oil production history. Follow that with some learning on current techniques used to explore for and drill oil. Next move on to reservoir management and the current state of global production in light of those areas of study. After that move on towards what the major global Energy agencies think is happening. Finally, go to The Oil Drum and start learning what some of the more corporately "disconnected" energy experts think is actually happening vice what corporate and political leadership want you to believe.

Pay particular attention in your studies to global discovery trends and field production with occasional side trips into discussions of what depletion and decline means. After about a year or two of intensive study I challenge you to come back in here and claim all is going to be fine and the future production graph of global oil has nowhere to go but up.

[Xei]

IS "Xei" the employer/handler of OF2 or vice versa?

Not than anyone 'cares' what I and others here think, BUT, these and like-minded Fascist goons got to go if y'all want to ever return to a minimally respectable discussion forum.

What on Earth are you talking about?

Ahh I see another techno-cornucopian has been born...

Xei....if that is truly who you are..there is a lot to learn from many other sources instead of just looking at production graphs. I suggest you start by doing some research into oil production history. Follow that with some learning on current techniques used to explore for and drill oil. Next move on to reservoir management and the current state of global production in light of those areas of study. After that move on towards what the major global Energy agencies think is happening. Finally, go to The Oil Drum and start learning what some of the more corporately "disconnected" energy experts think is actually happening vice what corporate and political leadership want you to believe.

Pay particular attention in your studies to global discovery trends and field production with occasional side trips into discussions of what depletion and decline means. After about a year or two of intensive study I challenge you to come back in here and claim all is going to be fine and the future production graph of global oil has nowhere to go but up.

Thank you for the good advice regarding research.

However I'd like to point out though that I never said anything remotely along the lines of 'global oil has nowhere to go but up'. That's the exact opposite of what my original post says. I fully accept the reality of peak oil and think a 2010 peak is a very real possibility. If you have any information regarding my actual queries I'd be very interested.

You're all a very suspicious bunch by the way... yes of course I 'truly am' Xei, what are you suggesting my motives are?? All the graphs I found were out of date so I thought I'd ask a community. I tried Savinar's but it took ages for the admin to okay my account and weirdly non of the forums there are actually about discussing peak theory so I came here instead.

[Revi]

Thanks Xei, it was interesting to look at the graphs again and pick up on the logistic curve and the high and low cases. It looks like we might be in the middle of the two. I just hope it all holds up until around 2018 when I retire. I think we'll be in a serious decline by then, however.

[AirlinePilot]

Ill give you the benefit of the doubt Xei. When you squeeze that big graph down to the 2000-2009 time frame the plateau will become very evident.



The Cornu-trolls here will attempt to convince you that reserve growth and new discoveries can and will lift us off that plateau anytime now and global production will continue to climb for another 20-30 years. The entire body of evidence does NOT suggest that. It suggests, if you have an open mind, that we are struggling to even maintain the current levels except for the last 8 months or so since the global recession had an actual impact on GLOBAL consumption. By the way, global consumption is STILL PROJECTED TO GROW in the future.

[shortonsense]

I've just realised the interesting result of comparing those two graphs.

Most of the earlier predictions seem to have significantly underestimated how much more oil could be produced... only the top four seem viable now.

Go here for an estimate from 1956 from the father of peak oil himself. Fiqure 20. We were supposed to reach 34 million barrels a day!!! Compare that graph to the modern stuff and then ask yourself....hmmmmm...how did THAT happen.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13630

[AirlinePilot]

Something to also understand which shortonsense doesnt want to talk about is that as time goes on we get better at knowing what has happened in the past and we get better at estimating what can and might happen in the future. In other words the industry gets smarter and so do we in estimating what may or may not happen. Cornutrolls will attempt to persuade you with a logical fallacy that just because reserves grow(nad have grown) they always will.

In other words estimates from 1956 dont mean squat in todays picture.

Unfortunately that is not how finite resources work.

[Xei]

Ill give you the benefit of the doubt Xei.

I wish you'd explain what you were doubting... I'm a total noob to the peak community but as far as I can tell my request was totally benign...

When you squeeze that big graph down to the 2000-2009 time frame the plateau will become very evident.

Thanks for the graph, it's very helpful... of course extrapolating using the end of a data set is notoriously dangerous, and you can find a similar plateau up to mid '03, but it's not a good sign.

What do you mean by a projected rise in consumption? Is that ignoring projected production? Because, naturally, consumption cannot rise without an equal rise in production.

As you seem knowledgeable about the area could you maybe address what I said in my first post about mitigation etc.? Thanks muchly.

[shortonsense]

In other words estimates from 1956 dont mean squat in todays picture.

Unfortunately that is not how finite resources work.

I am also willing to admit that Hubbert got it really, really wrong in 1956.

[TheDude]

They think you're another member posting under another name for whatever reason.

All the large government agencies such as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) project increased consumption over the decades. Usually their projections extend out to 2030, a conveniently round number that isn't too far off. Actually they've been using 2030 for quite a while, hmm.

Here is an excellent summary of various forecasts, including information on how reliable they have turned out to be: Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers. Read the primers listed at that site as well. All of your questions about mitigation have been hashed out in the past in great detail, do a search here and at the Oil Drum (TOD), the site I linked to here. That will give you plenty to research.

Best of luck.

[AirlinePilot]

In other words estimates from 1956 dont mean squat in todays picture.

Unfortunately that is not how finite resources work.

I am also willing to admit that Hubbert got it really, really wrong in 1956.

Hubbert may not have been that great at the NUMBER but his concept and the math to figure this out are clearly good tools with which to CONTINUALLY UPDATE the global production picture.

[AirlinePilot]

Thanks for the graph, it's very helpful... of course extrapolating using the end of a data set is notoriously dangerous, and you can find a similar plateau up to mid '03, but it's not a good sign.

After you have done your research as suggested, check into WHY there has been a peak during the largest crude price run up in history(2004-2008). Ask yourself how could that be? Most sterile economists will tell you it should not have looked like that.

[shortonsense]

In other words estimates from 1956 dont mean squat in todays picture.

Unfortunately that is not how finite resources work.

I am also willing to admit that Hubbert got it really, really wrong in 1956.

Hubbert may not have been that great at the NUMBER but his concept and the math to figure this out are clearly good tools with which to CONTINUALLY UPDATE the global production picture.

I beg to disagree of course, on both general, and specific, grounds. Generally, if the most likely global profile is not a single peaked, generally bell shaped curve, then we certainly can't rely on the profile itself to be precognitive at all. And if the number generated by such a shape, when production does follow the predicted outline, is out of sync with reality by 2-3X, then as we sit here today we can't be sure if the peak is in the past ( again ) or if it might be 2-3X higher than today.

If we define the ability of a "clearly good tool" as within -66% or +200%, then fine, Hubbert built a clearly fine tool.

[shortonsense]

Thanks for the graph, it's very helpful... of course extrapolating using the end of a data set is notoriously dangerous, and you can find a similar plateau up to mid '03, but it's not a good sign.

After you have done your research as suggested, check into WHY there has been a peak during the largest crude price run up in history(2004-2008).

I agree. And then examine why it has happened before, in order to compare and contrast with the present.

Ask yourself how could that be?

Again, I agree.