[lonewolf]

In a continuing, if not futile, effort to attempt to return this site to some semblance of of oil-depletion related discussion:

You, I, and everyone of us in the 'West' are alive solely because of our oil prolific (obscene) consumption - both direct and indirect. The energy content incorporated into every single product, service and thing that we do (and have ever done) is irreplaceable (in today's world). Take someone's long-term access to oil away (via whatever mechanism) and , well ... they die. Period. After much suffering and lashing-out at 'injustice', I should note. To anyone that 'cares' to not believe this, I suggest that they try it - literally - but I digress ...

Now, price (affordability) is the key to one's direct access to any resource in a capitalist system - especially including energy (aka everything). We all (mostly) talk of pending "higher prices" - of much higher future prices (in multiples of any high seen to date btw)- as per capita oil extraction continues to accelerate on the decline slope. But, if you think about it, "higher prices" is actually a euphemism for "constrained access" to 'life as you knew it' - aka equates to directly impeding one's personal continued survival and that of ones genes (progeny). Rather self-evident, assuming one actually 'thinks' about it.

Put another way, an escalating price (cost, in real terms) increasingly limits (impedes) access to necessary survival resources to fewer and fewer people. Therefore. with ever rising price inevitably comes (leads to) an ever increasing death rate. Put yet another way, ever increasing price (supply constraint among other drivers) produces an ever decreasing gene pool of would be survivors/progenitors. When only the very-rich can afford oil, only the very-rich will be able to reproduce (and have progeny likely to survive to maturity and perpetuate the species - if any.) When only the ultra-rich (uber-elite) can afford to access/consume oil, only the mega-elite will have ongoing access to the resources necessary to sustain themselves and their spawn (if prepared for the coming anarchy).

So, as price escalates, the (effective, future) gene pool decreases. Pumping/burning oil as fast as we can has basically the same effect as pumping DNA out of the future of life on Earth as fast as we can.
Good luck with that plan, man. Smart monkey? ROF

==========

To another peak everything observation, we speak of Peak Oil as being when approximately half of the planets petroleum endowment has been consumed (I do know that this is NOT a/the literal definition of Peak Oil). But this 50%-gone meme is NOT actually true. While it may be nearly correct that we have extracted approximately half of what we have found, much if not most of what remains will never be extracted (IMO) - due to a variety of related reasons. For a historical example. it is estimated that Britain still has 90% or more of their endowment of coal remaining in the ground despite more than two centuries of extraction frenzy. Why? Because no matter how much technology/efficiency ones applies to the effort, the low-hanging fruit has already been removed (forever) and each subsequent fraction becomes increasing more difficult/less efficient to extract (the EROEI declines exponentially). It can/will be the same for oil - and for any/every other resource. Therefore, far more than half of the oil ever to be extracted/consumed by man has already occurred - regardless of how much may remain in alleged reservoirs, or the extraction technology/efficiency applied, or what the prevailing mean global retail price may be. I'd 'guess' that we have already consumed 3/4 of the oil that we ever will. And this is barring near-term catastrophic demand destruction (collapse of 'civilization'). Which implies that we have far less time remaining to suckle on the great oil-teat than we would have thought based on a half gone model. The uber-elite (and their personal slave force) are sorely pleased. However, one must wonder just how 'prepared' most of them are to take true personal/genetic advantage of their happy circumstance as the future continues to unfold at ever breath-taking velocity.


I do know that the above is deliberately 'simplistic' and generality. Which IMO does not render it inaccurate. But what say thee?

[Ludi]

With nearly 7 billion humans on the planet, the gene pool will be plenty big for quite a while. You might want to worry when it gets down to a few million, like the whales.



"Not enough people" is the least of our worries.



<<< Darwinian Zero

[lonewolf]

i fully concur. Just that you and I - and progeny - aren't likely to be among those transmitting genes into a future. Unless you happen to be a closet billionaire.

[Rod_Cloutier]

You talk about 'When only the ultra-rich have access to resources", but this will never happen either. When you get revolution from a die-off or related event, people pull out the pitchforks, torches, and dust off the guilotine blades to even the score.

Think of the French revolution where the entire aristoscracy was beheaded.

Also the Earth will always have 'some' carrying capacity. Some foodstuffs will still be grown. Some self-sufficient farmers or hunter gatherers will still survive. Some self-sufficient industrial agricultural regions will still make due with limited bio-fuel inputs and be able to retain some industrial capacities. Not to mention all the Amazonian tribes peoples that never developed or civilized that are still living the same way they've been existing for thousands of years.

[lonewolf]

I said "western 'civilization' - not rain forest 'aborigines' et al, who could do very well indeed as 'civilization' succumbs to energy death.

[Revi]

The meek will inherit the earth. Sure there will be the Cheneys of the world driving around in their Hummers for a while, but the people who will really survive will be the large numbers of people who adapt to the lack of oil and live on very little.

I lived in a third world country in a small town where there were only 2 cars. They were owned by the richest people in the town. Everybody else walked and took the bus. Most of the food came from the immediate area.

Lots of people figure out a way to live without huge amounts of fossil fuels.

[lonewolf]

I've lived in several third world countries and in 'villages' that had rarely if ever seen a car. So what? That has nothing to do with 'western civilization' coming apart at the seams.

[Ludi]

i fully concur. Just that you and I - and progeny - aren't likely to be among those transmitting genes into a future

I guarantee I won't be!

[Hawkcreek]

I've lived in several third world countries and in 'villages' that had rarely if ever seen a car. So what? That has nothing to do with 'western civilization' coming apart at the seams.

It kind of depends on what you mean by "coming apart at the seams".
Does it mean some type of die-off - 50% maybe in 30 years?
Or that we will become unable to communicate via radio or telephone?
Or that we won't be able to farm with IC powered machinery?
Or will be no longer be able to teach the young things important to making them productive members of society?

I believe we can (and will ) have all kinds of problems resulting in various amounts of die-back, but we can't destroy the stored knowledge that will allow us to eventually re-initiate and maintain a technological society. Most of our problems lie in overpopulation, in my view. Get a lot of the mindless, consuming morons out of the way, and we could have a pretty nice world to live in.

[Ainan]

If Western Culture had not collapsed in the last half of the last century I might agree with lonewolf's assertion. But modern people are closer to savage beasts than you think, and are likely to become harder and harder for the elite to control. If the elite don't control the masses, they are no longer elite, just as powerless as the rest of us.

Whatever happens in the future I expect the survivors will be some of the most intelligent people around, and the most adaptive to a changing reality. Most people can't change their mental model of reality quick enough to survive a paradigm shift. I expect the survivors will come from the middle class, those thinking ahead and accepting reality, those building doomsteads, bugout retreats and nuclear bunkers. The kind of people who could survive in a world without massive amounts of energy, not some consumer junkie living off of reality TV and new age ideologies, nor an immoral psychopath who would sell his Mother to get to the top. If anyone lives to live in a world without fossil fuels it must be those who are capable of doing so. People who can't pull their own weight and do their own thinking will soon be a thing of the past.

[lonewolf]

Whatever happens in the future I expect the survivors will be some of the most intelligent people around, and the most adaptive to a changing reality. ...

I'd hope (if I had any) that those that survive will be "the most intelligence" - and some actually may, but I'm doubtful on average. The most brutal, ruthless, violent, unconscionable and best equipped have more than a fighting chance of coming out on top of the debris pile. Expect to see a rapid rise in neighborhood hegemon , 'religious' radicals, and gang-patterned overlord want-to-be's making themselves known.

Reviving former life skills and knowledge will be as, if not more, critical than preserving current knowledge/technology.

[gt1370a]

You are right, this is why when physical shortages start governments will implement rationing and price controls. This will allow them to extend business as usual for a few more years.

[lonewolf]

I've lived in several third world countries and in 'villages' that had rarely if ever seen a car. So what? That has nothing to do with 'western civilization' coming apart at the seams.

It kind of depends on what you mean by "coming apart at the seams".
Does it mean some type of die-off - 50% maybe in 30 years?
Or that we will become unable to communicate via radio or telephone?
Or that we won't be able to farm with IC powered machinery?
Or will be no longer be able to teach the young things important to making them productive members of society?

I believe we can (and will ) have all kinds of problems resulting in various amounts of die-back, but we can't destroy the stored knowledge that will allow us to eventually re-initiate and maintain a technological society. Most of our problems lie in overpopulation, in my view. Get a lot of the mindless, consuming morons out of the way, and we could have a pretty nice world to live in.

A. Yes
B. Yes
C. Yes
D. Really? When did that ever supposedly happen?

and MUCH more (worse)

WRT the problem IS population overshoot! BINGO

[Rod_Cloutier]

Again, I would disagree with lonewolf. The most brutal, ruthless, and corrupt rule society right now. How else can you explain multi-millionaries, multi-billionaries who can never get enough, that will exploit the poorest of the poor to increase productivity to no end? CEO's of utility companies who make a million dollars a year, but don't hestate to turn off the heat or electricity to the poor if they cannot pay. We have that now.

I think that five years after a collapse event, the survivors will have no choice but to live in a less competitive society and cooperate more just to survive. Survivors from the dog eat dog world, where the 9-5 rat race stresses are a distant memory, they will have more time to 'meet their next door neighbor' that the've ignored but lived beside for 20 years. Circumstances will force people to learn about community again as they have to leave the vehicle to rust and walk miles thru the community to public markets every day.

I live in a city of 635,000. If 90% of the population died off in the collapse, there would still be a public population of 63,500 left in what remained of the city. It would be the return to a small city, small town mentaility. community farming in open spaces, flea markets in abandoned buildings, ect. No doubt the survivors will all have done and seen awful stuff during the collapse. History has a record of a similar situation after the catastrophy of World War II. Fifty million people had died. Everybody was involved, from soldiers, to factory workers making munitions, to victims of every sort and measure. People were tired of war and conflict, everybody knew people who had died, the scars and bad memories everyone carried with them were enough.

If your shotgun happy neighbor is starving with 3 kids at home, and your single with a stockpile of food, you'd think twice about not sharing. 4 to 1 is not good odds. Chaos during the collapse most assuredly, but a quiet and restrained recovery for whatever people survive the collapse event as well.

[pablonite]

It's up in the air what might happen as far as the gene pool goes. I suppose they have studied the Reindeer Island herd and probably figured out the fit survive, the weak and old die - like how their lichen economy operated. To draw an anology to what might happen with humans is a big leap of faith, I see some very unfit people under extreme stress at the top of the economic heap and sport star might be just as likely to fail huge after the limelight goes away.

On the other hand, you might have some egghead elites who read too much history and got a plan to keep them and their military axles greased until your living in a dirt pit begging for a bullet in the head. Starvation is an ugly way to die but it looks like the primary depopulation bomb at the moment, the gene pool is up for grabs IMO but advantage uber-elites who are prepared which is almost a certainty.

Besides, having a legal "mate" is in no way a guarantee your offspring will be a combination of the two of you, some of the statistics with DNA testing would make most people think twice about their own family. Looks like Daddy but not Mommy or vice versa, we've all seen them

[Hawkcreek]

D. Really? When did that ever supposedly happen?

Worked for my kids - and hopefully your folks would say it worked for you.

[Ludi]

Reviving former life skills and knowledge will be as, if not more, critical than preserving current knowledge/technology.

Do you expect the most brutal and ruthless to be able to "revive former life skills and knowledge"?



To me, the most brutal and ruthless rarely seem very interested in knowledge or reviving past skills.

[lonewolf]

Do you expect the most brutal and ruthless to be able to "revive former life skills and knowledge"?

NO. And I don't expect any 'sustainable' fraction of humanity was we knew it to do so either. We will fight over the decaying scraps of a dead civilization on a dying planet until the last ape rots. However, few 'tribes' in Amazonia, Borneo, Congo basin etc may do quite well if left to their own devices - assuming that their ecology and local environments remained intact, which is NOT at all guaranteed.

[Ludi]

Do you expect the most brutal and ruthless to be able to "revive former life skills and knowledge"?

NO. And I don't expect any 'sustainable' fraction of humanity was we knew it to do so either. We will fight over the decaying scraps of a dead civilization on a dying planet until the last ape rots. However, few 'tribes' in Amazonia, Borneo, Congo basin etc may do quite well if left to their own devices - assuming that their ecology and local environments remained intact, which is NOT at all guaranteed.

Then you didn't mean it when you posted this?:

The most brutal, ruthless, violent, unconscionable and best equipped have more than a fighting chance of coming out on top of the debris pile.

[lonewolf]

D. Really? When did that ever supposedly happen?

Worked for my kids - and hopefully your folks would say it worked for you.

Well, I didn't 'exactly' try to raise mine to be "productive members of society" but rather to be compassionate and respectful of all life. I failed. However, by most sheeple's measuring stick, they are "productive members of society" - for as long or as brief as that may last. Then, they die. They have NO clue what's happening or what's coming down the pike despite my efforts to inform their judgement. They, like most OMO, do not want to know. They want what they want - and they want it NOW. No discussion. No "negotiation". Period. Can't say I blame them. I certainly 'had it my way'. Those days are gone. Someday they may wake-up to physical reality, but I somehow doubt it.