[TheDude]

Home | The Peak Oil Group

On 10 February 2010 at the Royal Society, six UK companies - Arup, Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach Group and Virgin - joined together to launch the second report of the UK Industry Task-Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES).

The report, titled “The Oil Crunch - a wake-up call for the UK economy”, finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity within five years.

The Task-Force warns that the UK must not be caught out by the oil crunch in the same way it was with the credit crunch and states that policies to address Peak Oil must be a priority for the new government formed after the 2010 election.

[yesplease]

How does a chart for capacity additions over seven years indicate production declines when the average project only takes ~4+ years?

[shortonsense]

Any time a report starts off with:

Q: What is different in this analysis of peak oil – I’ve read hundreds?
A: This is the first time leading businesses have warned that a peak in cheap, easily available oil production is likely to hit by 2013, posing a grave risk to the UK and world economy.

you know darn well they haven't even taken the time to discover that cheap oil disappeared before some of the authors of the report were born.

Of what value can a report be from a bunch of neophytes who haven't even figured out the basics of the debate yet?

[AirlinePilot]

you know darn well they haven't even taken the time to discover that cheap oil disappeared before some of the authors of the report were born.

I would not necessarily agree with that statement. I think most would agree that barring the few years of geopoltically derived increases in the 80's "cheap oil" didn't disappear until recently. I'd say that you might make a case that it was in the 80's but the real increases have only been pretty recent.

I frankly doubt we ever see oil prices below 30-40$ ever again. We all know what the rest of that graph looks like if continued to present day.

oilprice.jpg

[yesplease]

I would not necessarily agree with that statement. I think most would agree that barring the few years of geopoltically derived increases in the 80's "cheap oil" didn't disappear until recently. I'd say that you might make a case that it was in the 80's but the real increases have only been pretty recent.

I suggest using a source that looks at real (inflation adjusted) instead of (or as well as) nominal price. From ~1945-1975 oil prices were at ~$20+/bbl. From ~1975 to present they have averaged ~$40+/bbl. For the next decade at least it looks like they're going to average ~$60-80+/bbl, and unlike the 80s, OPEC can effectively behave like a cartel, putting a floor on oil price, so I don't think we're going to see another drop. I don't think the idea of additional oil coming at higher costs is foreign to anyone on this forum. Up until ~1975 it was pretty cheap at ~$20/bbl, from that time until the present averaged ~$40+/bbl, and from the present to who knows when will probably average much more than $40+/bbl. The era of cheap ~$20/bbl oil and stable prices was over after ~1975, just like the era of ~$40/bbl oil, and probably an unstable price floor given OPEC's control of the market, is effectively over now.

[shortonsense]

you know darn well they haven't even taken the time to discover that cheap oil disappeared before some of the authors of the report were born.

I would not necessarily agree with that statement. I think most would agree that barring the few years of geopoltically derived increases in the 80's "cheap oil" didn't disappear until recently.

I don't dispute that the reasons for the price increases starting in about 1969 had nothing to do with a particular peak oil or anything Hubbert related, but I also maintain that it doesn't matter. Neophytes are revealed by their obvious lack of perspective, no knowledge of real or nominal pricing, confusion and cherry picking data trends because they started driving in 1999 and are personally amazed how much gasoline has increased....and with no research into the actual history of crude or gasoline prices.

Its a sure fire giveaway sign for beginners, or those who haven't researched any deeper than reading a Colin Campbell article claiming something similar.

I frankly doubt we ever see oil prices below 30-40$ ever again. We all know what the rest of that graph looks like if continued to present day.

The graph sure looks like it explains why those claiming cheap oil is on the way out need to read a little more history on the topic. Particularly if you are writing some major report which hopefully people will take seriously.