[Kevin Green]

Good afternoon.

After registering up with the forums, and spending some time browsing through the various threads, I have to question some of the sanity of ya'all. Let me begin by stating I am a firm believer in Peak Oil. Oil is a finite supply, and so of course, it will run out one day. Even Exxon Mobile has to agree with this to some extent. We are headed for a cliff, and eventually we are going to tumble over it.

I am curious how many of you thing the "end" will come. After reading some of the preparing-for-the-future threads, it seems many people here feel that it will come quick and fast and that society will crumble around us overnight; to the point of having a "bug out" bag ready to go, firearm and all.

Short of a significant natural disaster (which could have nothing to do with Peak oil anyways), I don't think this approach is correct. I don't think society will collapse overnight. I believe that it will be a very slow, thrashing decline. Prices will continue to slowly rise, the economy of our country will continue to sink, and eventually, a lot of us will suddenly want to live in oil-free Germany or Japan.

What are your thoughts? How do you think it's going to end?

[Ferretlover]

The end of this segment of humanity on this planet has started. Increasing numbers of people, with dwindling resources, including that of fossil fuels, spells D-O-O-M, that spells moon!
How bad will it look at the end? As bad as you think, only worse would be my estimate. It depends on whether or not the planet makes non-life sustaining moves.
It is happening in slow motion. Well, at least it *seems* slow compared to how fast the situation can be dissected and analyzed. Lack of arable land, bits and pieces of the food chain in danger (like bees), parts of the oceans and seas are dying (cannot sustain life), resources dwindling (using up raw parts of the planet), contamination of our air supply, global dimming, you name it.
Only nuclear war, or a pandemic (which, in all liklihood, will be manmade) will speed up the process of a major die off.
Until then, invest in bandaids!

[Carlhole]

The peak oil story has been frequently reported in the media for several years now. Many, many people are aware of the arguments. For example, if you tune into SeekingAlpha.com, lots of investment manager and individual traders/investors invoke peak oil, pro and con regularly. It's no secret. And peak oil theory is very simple to understand. It does not present a barrier to widespread comprehension.

Yet, hardly anywhere is the doom foment so strong as on sites like PeakOil.com. The vast majority of people who are "peak oil aware" do not read forums like this one because they've reached the conclusion that there is no way to be certain of energy outcomes beyond few short years.

So, this site is weighted heavily towards the doom side of peak oil awareness and tends to attract those whose juvenile fantasies about it are stimulated. Arguing with them is like arguing with those who believe that Jesus is destined to return very, very shortly. Any contrary ideas are attacked or ridiculed reflexively.

If you bring up one of the many promising energy innovations that appear daily in the news, you only get silly responses like: "Well, why can't I buy {energy innovation} at my local Walmart right now?".

So, this site is for believers, not rationalists. But enjoy if you be one of them!

[pup55]

The end?

Massive unemployment, unaffordable energy, the middle east a tinderbox, Europe impotent and ineffectual, Widespread religious fundamentalism around the world as people turn to this for security, decay of the family and other institutions, lack of social cohesion and sense of shared sacrifice...The financial institutions under stress, government apparently incapable of dealing with the crises of the day in any effective way other than whining about it. An unusual number of blizzards and other disasters in the US and around the globe.

This is 1978 we are talking about. All we need is to bring back the bell bottom pants.

three decades go by, and nothing has changed. We might, conceivably, have a few more years left.

[POAlex]

Its quite the topic, that's for sure.

[MarkL]

It's no longer about oil. I think we're past that. We are now exploring(experiencing) the dynamics of fiat currency at the end of its cycle within the context of a globally connected marketplace.

It's a global train wreck in slow motion. People are dying *right now*.

If ya got money coming in, good for you. If not, well, welcome to the party pal

For some doomer perspective on what a currency crisis might look like, read Patriots by James Wesley, Rawles

or

Try the blovol The Day the Dollar Died series by "John Galt" He now has 19 chapters. Look on the right sidebar for more chapters.

[mos6507]

This is 1978 we are talking about.

Look, I was 8 in 1978 and let me tell you, it was nowhere near that bad and I don't think I was blind to it just because I was a kid. There has been a lot of revisionist history about how terrible life was in the 1970s and somebody has to tell it like it is. There was 'stuff' going on but it was largely pushed to the periphery of people's lives. That's why it was a malaise rather than TEOTWAWKI.

[mos6507]

For some doomer perspective on what a currency crisis might look like, read Patriots by James Wesley, Rawles

You actually take that book seriously? Even most doomers think the book is over-the-top unintentional doomer self-parody.

[Loki]

I don't think the notion that it's all going to end overnight is particularly widespread here. But there are certainly many here who believe peak oil will be utterly disastrous, with (literally) a die-off of billions of people, the complete collapse of civilization, a reversion to pre-industrial times. Very pessimistic to say the least.

I disagree with this notion. It's the worst case scenario, but not the most likely. I personally think that there's an uncomfortably high possibility of a deep, lingering economic depression caused by peak oil and a number of other factors that will effect significant changes in how most of us live. Not die off, but economic collapse of a sort.

With this in mind, I've determined that the best response for me personally is to cultivate a variety of practical skills in order to maximize my employment options as well as to be able to provide for my own subsistence (gardening, etc.). It has serendipitously turned out that I quite enjoy the job path and "hobbies" that my doomerism has precipitated, and I've always believed in voluntary simplicity, so not living high on the hog doesn't bother me much. But I don't look forward to seeing soup lines in my neighborhood, which may very well be on the horizon.

The decline of western civilization will be a very uncomfortable situation for most of us. But I don't think we'll be seeing piles of bodies in the street any time soon.

[kpeavey]

Contrary to what Carlhole said, many of us have done our homework and possess critical thinking skills which have allowed us to draw our own conclusions. We've read the studies, examined the reports, looked around and independently came to the same rational result.

Faith is listening to the government when they say "Everything is under control, return to your homes."

Prudence dictates you plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Responsibility demands you do your own homework.

[mos6507]

I disagree with this notion. It's the worst case scenario, but not the most likely. I personally think that there's an uncomfortably high possibility of a deep, lingering economic depression caused by peak oil and a number of other factors that will effect significant changes in how most of us live. Not die off, but economic collapse of a sort.

Which means you don't think a die-off is ever gonna happen or you just won't live to see it?

[Loki]

I disagree with this notion. It's the worst case scenario, but not the most likely. I personally think that there's an uncomfortably high possibility of a deep, lingering economic depression caused by peak oil and a number of other factors that will effect significant changes in how most of us live. Not die off, but economic collapse of a sort.

Which means you don't think a die-off is ever gonna happen or you just won't live to see it?

Not sure there's a functional difference between the two, at least in terms of practical solutions for how I, as a very small ape, can make a living in this great blooming, buzzing confusion of a world. I start work as an apprentice on an organic farm in the spring, so I'm trying to do what little I can to ensure my own survival and the long-term survival of my people.

But I doubt very much there will be a great dieoff this century, at least in the US, Europe, and other parts of the civilized world. Is there a small possibility? Sure. But the probability seems very low to me, notwithstanding Monte's pseudoscientific rants.

I can't speak for the Third World---their situation may very well be more precarious. I also can't speak for what happens in the 22nd century and beyond. I have an industrial grade crystal ball, only guaranteed to be accurate for a century.

[JustaGirl]

Just read the Hirsch report and draw your own conclusions.

No one on this site has a damn clue. There are guesses, some a lot better than others, but no certainty. To many ifs, ands, or buts. We are not calling any shots, we are just here for the ride. ENJOY IT!

[Carlhole]

Contrary to what Carlhole said, many of us have done our homework...

Again, the only "us" you'll ever hear about on this site are those whose doom fantasies are bolstered by the groupthink here. Far more people are "peak oil aware" elsewhere. They have read the books, the hundreds of articles, seen the movies, have made investment decisions based on what they have investigated, etc. However, on a site like PeakOil.com, doomers are the only ones who stick around - quoting each other, agreeing with one another, and otherwise reinforcing the clusterf%*k concensus.

Take a look at the Google Trends graph of the general interest in the subject of peak oil:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=peak+oil

Interest is fairly steady but is trending downwards.

If you want to read a good anti-doomer study of the subject of peak oil, I recommend The Age Of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the World's Most Controversial Resource. This book was written with the peak oil crowd in mind. If your first inclination is to refuse to even read the book, then you can be fairly well-assured that you are merely one who has drunk too much of the doomer kool-aid (rather than someone who seriously investigates all sides of an important debate).

I always like to refer FatherOfTwo's last post. He was someone who really investigated all aspects of the peak oil debate thoroughly and conscientiously. He REALLY "did his homework" on this subject over a period of about 4 years. I miss his contributions.

I'm going to throw this thread off on a bit of a tangent, the only reason I'm doing so is because I received a PM about it. I was originally going to reply directly via the PM, but perhaps this will be read and appreciated by others. Apologies if this tangent annoys you.

Honestly I don't follow peakoil.com that much anymore (although I do pop in every now and then to the economic forum to read MrBill's very, very insightful posts) Here's why I don't follow it too much anymore, and why I would suggest doing a lot more reading before taking the "doomer's prep stage":

I started reading and researching peak oil in 2004 (as you can see by my join date and number of posts) It rattled me extensively as I was seriously uneducated about the topic at the time. I became a frequent visitor to this site and my appetite for energy related news and information became ravenous. I also became pretty depressed about the whole thing.

Over the years I have done a tremendous amount more reading and I've also attended the UofC's IEEE speaker sessions too. (I highly recommend those) With much more info under my belt and 4 years of reflection, I have a very different point of view now - and that is that we are headed for a gut wrenching adjustment, but doom due to peak oil is not on the horizon. This thread is not the place for me to extrapolate on my position.

In general I think blukatzen has good recommendations: living locally and sustainably is good regardless of what happens with Peak Oil. But as someone who has 4 years of this topic under his belt, I'd caution you to do more research before "prepping". peakoil.com is slanted hard towards the doomer side of things, and as with any topic it's best to get all the facts and a full sampling of viewpoints before betting the ranch on any one outcome.

I'm willing to discuss things further via PM but this thread isn't the place to continue any discussions on this matter.

Cheers and best of luck,

FoT

[bshirt]

It's no longer about oil. I think we're past that. We are now exploring(experiencing) the dynamics of fiat currency at the end of its cycle within the context of a globally connected marketplace.

It's a global train wreck in slow motion. People are dying *right now*.

If ya got money coming in, good for you. If not, well, welcome to the party pal

For some doomer perspective on what a currency crisis might look like, read Patriots by James Wesley, Rawles

or

Try the blovol The Day the Dollar Died series by "John Galt" He now has 19 chapters. Look on the right sidebar for more chapters.

Yup.

There's no way out. It'll be a mess for a good while.....

[Roy]

I don't think anyone has the definitive answer. Anyone who claims to have it should be viewed with some skepticism.

I went through a progression very similar to the post quoted by FatherofTwo. Found out, freaked out, and over-reacted initially. In that time I've made some moves that some people might think foolish. That's their issue. Not mine. My quality of life is much better as a result of my lifestyle adjustments -- these inspired by my understanding of PO, overshoot, energy, fiat currency, debt, climate change, etc etc etc.

I think Loki and Kpeavey make some good points in their posts too.

It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job, and depression when you lose yours. The point is this is a very personal topic, and how you decide to deal with it is also personal in nature. Whatever happens to you, in part, will be a result of what you did or did not do in the run up. I think it's foolish to put all your eggs in one basket. Business as usual could continue for another 50 years for all we know. Or everything could completely fall apart tomorrow.

Both outcomes I just listed are very unlikely IMO (either end of a bell curve). So there's nothing wrong with keeping your job, continuing to save for retirement, and at the same time developing some skills that will help you if some other future beside business as usual plays out. Skills are worth far more than any stash of food or ammunition in the long run I think.

There is a certain contingent on this site that likes to call everyone who disagrees with them crazy. I don't listen to them. I do what I think needs to be done based on my personal assessment of what is going on.

Believe what you want. Do what you want. Do some research and try to get a grip on the issues. You can't eat a whole elephant in one bite. It takes time and a great deal of research. There is no easy answer or proven formula for success.

You pay your money and you place your bet. If it's suburbia and 401k accounts, great. If it's an isolated doomstead totally off-grid, great. I decided to keep one foot in the BAU world and one in the doomer world. Local food, gardening, and self-sufficiency are my new hobbies in lieu of muscle cars and sports fandom. I read non-fiction now instead of the fiction I used to read. It was all voluntary and I love my new life even if some people don't understand or approve.

That's their issue. Not mine.

[TreeFarmer]

What was it like when the potato famine hit Ireland? Were people running all over the place raiding each others houses for food or, did they know there was no food to be had so they meekly stayed where they were or migrated to the U.S.

If there would have been no U.S. to migrate to would the Irish potato famine be a good example of what will happen with peak oil? Will most of society just run down like an unwound watch?

I forsee a smooth slowdown interrupted periodically as various social systems collapse.

TF

[pup55]

What was it like when the potato famine hit Ireland?

Hey, this is an interesting thought. There have been plenty of periods in history when things were much more chaotic than they are right now.

This is an account of the black plague outbreak in Florence.

It was the common practice of most of the neighbors, moved no less by fear of contamination by the putrefying bodies than by charity towards the deceased, to drag the corpses out of the houses with their own hands, aided, perhaps, by a porter, if a porter was to be had, and to lay them in front of the doors, where any one who made the round might have seen, especially in the morning, more of them than he could count;

http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/source/boccacio2.html

With a few exceptions, perhaps witnesses of the disaster in Indonesia a few years ago, or similar disasters, we can't possibly imagine how horrible this would be. Imagine this happening today, on your street in Suburbia, or in your apartment building, or in the downtown of your city.....

No, things are not quite that bad yet.

[rangerone314]

If you bring up one of the many promising energy innovations that appear daily in the news, you only get silly responses like: "Well, why can't I buy {energy innovation} at my local Walmart right now?".

So, this site is for believers, not rationalists. But enjoy if you be one of them!

I'm still waiting for Walmart to sell fusion power.

Okay, I'm still waiting for ANYONE to make commercial fusion power.

Rocket ships, transistors, satellites, nuclear weapons , silicon wafers, space shuttles, quad core processors, still no fusion...

Maybe if I sleep for 5,000 years and humanity still exists, fusion power will be figured out. Or not...

[Rod_Cloutier]

Harrison_Schmitt a former US astronaunt and Republican senator claims that successful fusion with Helium 3 has been achieved in the labratories at the University of Wisconsin. The principal problem being the only reliable source of Helium 3 exists in trace quantities on the moon. See link:

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=10924

In terms of the end, we have to be clear on terms. The Earth will always be here, a rock circling the Sun, the question is will Humans be occupying it? As I've said in previous posts I believe were in for a very hard crash soon.

Anywhere that is reliant on food imports is done for. After a hard and severe die-off, the survivors will have signifigant resources still at their disposal. Same situation with rabbit population overshoots, or rat population overshoots; the die-off reduces the population back to a background level that its enviroment can sustain. So will it be with humans.