[SeaGypsy]

Looking at the Bloom box, combined with advances being made in solar technology, with both apparently getting away from rare earth minerals and metals; for the 1st time it is starting to look like some real possible sustainable alternative to oil/ coal/ nukes for baseload power ands transport fuels is possible. These areas both have their own threads, I am starting this one specificly about the combination of these technologies.
I think it is starting to look very interesting, do others here?

[TheDude]

No.

[rangerone314]

How many square miles of solar panels do we need for transporation sector?

[ian807]

Not substantially. Gas fields deplete far more rapidly than oil reservoirs. This just speeds it up.

As for solar cells, tell me when I can:

1) Buy a 75% efficient panel at Wal-Mart for under $100.
2) The panel has its own integrated voltage protection, removable rechargeable battery, inverter and phase synchronizer.
3) The power produced comes in at about 10 cents per KWH.
4) I can hook it up by plugging it into my outside electrical socket without an electrician.

Until then, solar panels are either a rich mans toy, a military necessity or a pricey niche market device for small items like parking meters, camping equipment, signs, or water pumps in remote locations.

Cheers!

[TheAntiDoomer]

Yes. But these 2 techs are only the beggining. Remember this was KPs first clean energy investment 7 years ago and they are just having their first breakthrough. More than likely there are several more projects awaiting for reveal in the pipeline. So like SOS says oil is probably obsolete already it just doesn't know it yet.

[TheAntiDoomer]

No.

Excellent analysis.

[Dezakin]

Oil depletion is expensive and important because of the trillions of dollars in sunk infrastructure costs dependent on liquid hydrocarbon fuel as an energy storage medium, not because there weren't alternatives. Rising oil prices means larger dependence on synthetic liquid hydrocarbons, and energy conversion technology is incidental at best. The difference between running a fuel cell and an internal combustion engine just wont be that big compared to the larger issues of large infrastructure and fuel supply chains.

As for solar technology, sure it has a place when global civilization approaches the waste heat limit of earth; Issues of maintenance and capital cost go further than weather solar cells themselves are inexpensive enough to put everywhere. In addition there are many hidden costs for solar such as power transmission infrastructure and energy storage. Its not going to be competitive with nuclear power for the next century. But then, it doesn't have to be.

[TheDude]

No.

Excellent analysis.

Pardon me if I have my doubts.



Everyone should dig into the history of a tech and see what has been promised in the past. I found an article on EOR from 1965 that gave firm assurances that RF would be at 70% in 10 years.

Hi Dez. Was just reading Jim Hanson's book, he's a big fast reactor fan. Any hopes the rest of the world could pressure the FSU into letting us know how the BN 600 works?

[shortonsense]

Looking at the Bloom box, combined with advances being made in solar technology, with both apparently getting away from rare earth minerals and metals; for the 1st time it is starting to look like some real possible sustainable alternative to oil/ coal/ nukes for baseload power ands transport fuels is possible. These areas both have their own threads, I am starting this one specificly about the combination of these technologies.
I think it is starting to look very interesting, do others here?

Interesting is the wrong word. Predictable is much better.

Clever monkeys, historical precedent, economic incentive, etc etc.

[Keith_McClary]

No.

Excellent analysis.

The Dude was responding to a "yes or no" question, wasn't he?

Answer "yes" or "no".

[Keith_McClary]

Looking at the Bloom box, combined with advances being made in solar technology, with both apparently getting away from rare earth minerals and metals; for the 1st time it is starting to look like some real possible sustainable alternative to oil/ coal/ nukes for baseload power ands transport fuels is possible. These areas both have their own threads, I am starting this one specificly about the combination of these technologies.
I think it is starting to look very interesting, do others here?

Interesting is the wrong word. Predictable is much better.

Clever monkeys, historical precedent, economic incentive, etc etc.

So, should I sell my investments in fusion power and invest in this stuff? How are you Shortonsense Monkeys investing your retirement stash?

[SeaGypsy]

The Dude, while I understand the logic of your argument here, there is an element of straw man about it: Others have always exagerated/ lied about their potential, therefore these technologists must also be lieing/ exagerating?

My idea of a technotopian future would be where the total of human wastes can be put through a local system, embodied energy can be extracted, before inert leftover residuals can be utilized safely as fertiliser. Effectively getting close to a closed loop system.
To my way of thinking these systems are getting ever closer to the point where this becomes not only possible but affordable, then mandatory.

The argument that the energy infrastructure will be so costly to replace that humanity will die off rather than pay this cost ignores the primal drive of humans, to live.

Was this predictable? Is continued success predictable? Well that is in the mind of the reader. There is a saying that the great thing about being a pessimist is that one is almost always right but occaisionally pleasantly surprised; whilst an optimist is almost always disappointed but occaisionally gets to say "I told you so!".

[shortonsense]

How are you Shortonsense Monkeys investing your retirement stash?

Right now, nearly 90% t-bills. I'm betting on either a double dipper or some stagflation while the current financial mess sorts itself out. I'll do okay if inflation comes along and the market doesn't, I'll lose if we get inflation and a recovering market. I'll do real well with low inflation and the market tanks. Not so much because of any gains, but by minimizing losses. Of course, if the DJIA goes back below 7000 or the S&P500 down to 600 or so, I'll jump back in with at least a 6 figure bet on a recovery of either. Made a bundle this year following that basic plan.

[Keith_McClary]

How are you Shortonsense Monkeys investing your retirement stash?

Right now, nearly 90% t-bills. I'm betting on either a double dipper or some stagflation while the current financial mess sorts itself out. I'll do okay if inflation comes along and the market doesn't, I'll lose if we get inflation and a recovering market. I'll do real well with low inflation and the market tanks. Not so much because of any gains, but by minimizing losses. Of course, if the DJIA goes back below 7000 or the S&P500 down to 600 or so, I'll jump back in with at least a 6 figure bet on a recovery of either. Made a bundle this year following that basic plan.

So you're not risking your boodle on pie-in-the-sky schemes like Bloom box or solar technology. Leave those to the Clever Monkeys.

[SeaGypsy]

Short has his tongue firmly planted in his cheek. He is betting indirectly on alternative tech replacing oil deficits or he would not be betting on the future of the USD$ via T bills. The way he sees it there is plenty of oil left to see the promise of these technologies come to fruition well before the US economy tanks to such an extent that T bills would become worth significantly less. Excuse me putting words in your mouth Shorty, but that is what I am reading here.

[Carlhole]

Leave those to the Clever Monkeys.

I'm a clever monkey. Most of my shares are in APWR. Got some CWS and CPQQ too. Don't want to be in cash. Endure the volatility. It's a roller-coaster. Wish I could swing trade like a ballerina...

But I can only see that certain businesses simply HAVE to grow no matter how big the debt. If fiat money isn't real, neither is debt - if you look at human action as they ultimate economic driver (as the Austrian school says), then you will see economics reflect it; you won't see people reflect economics, peak oil or not. People call China a bubble. But human actions will be intense in certain areas - like Chinese grid stocks. No matter what happens in the financial world, billions of people will do what they believe they must do.

[NeoPeasant]

The technological solutions to our energy problems have been just around the corner since I was old enough to pay attention. Which I recall was roughly around the time I was reading about how the AMC Pacer would revolutionize the automobile.

[Homesteader]

[TWilliam]

The technological solutions to our energy problems have been just around the corner since I was old enough to pay attention. Which I recall was roughly around the time I was reading about how the AMC Pacer would revolutionize the automobile.

Actually the general assertion that 'paradise is just ahead' has been one of civilization's fundamental driving fantasies for oh... four thousand years or so? This is just one more variation on the theme...

[shortonsense]

How are you Shortonsense Monkeys investing your retirement stash?

Right now, nearly 90% t-bills. I'm betting on either a double dipper or some stagflation while the current financial mess sorts itself out. I'll do okay if inflation comes along and the market doesn't, I'll lose if we get inflation and a recovering market. I'll do real well with low inflation and the market tanks. Not so much because of any gains, but by minimizing losses. Of course, if the DJIA goes back below 7000 or the S&P500 down to 600 or so, I'll jump back in with at least a 6 figure bet on a recovery of either. Made a bundle this year following that basic plan.

So you're not risking your boodle on pie-in-the-sky schemes like Bloom box or solar technology. Leave those to the Clever Monkeys.

I am limited in my financial investments for reasons which I have no intention of explaining.