[Speculawyer]

We've all heard from and read information from Peak Oil personalities. You know the crowd: Colin Campbell, Matthew Simmons, T.Boone Pickens, Daniel Yergin, Michael Lynch, Jeremy Leggett, David Strahan, Richard Heinberg, Robert Hirsch, Jeffrey Rubin, J.Howard Kunstler, etc.

Has anyone and gone through and critically viewed the background, psychology, and vested interests of the various people? I think it would be an important exercise in valuing the different opinions.

I don't mean to cast aspersions on the various people. But people's opinions are definitely shaped by their backgrounds, psychology, vested interests, etc. And the shaping of opinions may not even be intentional.

For example, all of the people that have written books have a vested interested in book sales. This may or may not affect the views of various people depending on the factors. (How much money they already have, how many of these books they've written, etc.)

A few views:

Richard Heinberg - I think this guy has been drinking the Kool-aid for too long, has written several books, and has built a whole career over this issue. He comes off a bit alarmist. "Peak Everything" is one his books. Everything? Really?

Daniel Yergin - He seems to have a lot of close ties to people in big oil. Perhaps this tilts his views toward the cornucopia view that he typically espouses.

Matthew Simmons - He does seems quite passionate about this and he did found that Ocean Energy Institute. However, at the same time, he is a gas & oil business investment banker and so he will profit from increased investment in oil rigs & other equipment needed to search for and extract oil.

T.Boone Pickens - Has lots of investments in natural gas and wind. But does this mean conflicted interest or does it mean that he "talks the talk and walks the walk"? (Or "puts his money where his mouth is.") He already has billions . . . but does that mean he loves making money . . . or that he is already rich and that doesn't motivate him as much as his desire for energy and fiscal security for the USA?

[Revi]

I think you are right. They all come at peak oil with something they want to sell.

That doesn't mean that peak oil isn't real, but the messenger can interpret the message and change its meaning.

I like the Chris Srebowskis and Stewart Standifords of the world. They are constantly poring over the data and coming up with pssible scenarios.

Heinberg got the word out to a certain crowd that would not have heard about peak oil from Jay Hanson.

We are in a kind of a cave and are getting our information from those who are in the know, but I agree with you that you want to check the sources.

[TheDude]

Regarding Lynch, I came across this rather unfavorable assessment the other day:

[-] seismobob on September 3, 2007 - 2:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | [Parent subthread ] Comments top

I have debated Lynch, reviewed a paper of his before it was published in the O&G journal and went to the 2004 SPE talk to meet him. I wanted to look the guy in the eye to see if he really believed it.

As I sat in the audience of the Peak oil debate, Lynch put up the UK production and said that there was no problem. But I spoke up loud enough that those around me heard me. He had only shown the UK production up until 1999. He had failed to show 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 figures which were readily available IN 2004!!!. The guy pulled a sleight of hand of Biblical proportions.

I have little, no correct that, NO respect for the man.
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/Oilcrisis.htm
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That's not the only time I've heard accounts of him that suggest he's a bit of a double dealer, too. Permalink |

There are few out there that I'd call both wholly objective and rigorous. Heinberg's research on coal seems pretty solid, less agenda driven than his Powerdown stuff. Agree all the way with revi that Stuart Staniford's a very keen intellect: Early Warning. He used to post great stuff at the Oil Drum, aka TOD.

[jedrider]

We've all heard from and read information from Peak Oil personalities. You know the crowd: Colin Campbell, Matthew Simmons, T.Boone Pickens, Daniel Yergin, Michael Lynch, Jeremy Leggett, David Strahan, Richard Heinberg, Robert Hirsch, Jeffrey Rubin, J.Howard Kunstler, etc.

Has anyone and gone through and critically viewed the background, psychology, and vested interests of the various people? I think it would be an important exercise in valuing the different opinions...

Richard Heinberg - I think this guy has been drinking the Kool-aid for too long, has written several books, and has built a whole career over this issue. He comes off a bit alarmist. "Peak Everything" is one his books. Everything? Really?

Just googled and got to The Energy Bulletin in which Heinberg is a featured columnist. Got to admit that what he says is interesting. Mostly speculation but someone has to be on the edge speculating about these things because when they happen, they probably happen quickly. The Soviet Collapse comes to mind.

http://www.energybulletin.net/authors/Richard+Heinberg

I bet you this guy wants to sell a lot of books though

The significant thing to remember is that when the Soviet Union collapsed, it was not a linkpin of the world economy. When the U.S. collapses, well, a lot of money and debt will be devalued.

[AirlinePilot]

jed,

Dont agree about Heinberg. Ive read a lot of his stuff, and while he is a bit on the doomerish side, I really think he is trying to do things to wake folks up. He sees it as a lifes work worth doing and its very important to him. I think he is the genuine article and not motivated by greed or ego. He understands this is about change on a glacial and monumental scale. Without that sort of change he feels we are headed for real problems as a species. I dont think the man is getting rich off any of this.

Yeah we need to take a lot of this with a grain of salt, but one thing you will realize as you get older, is that there are a lot of ego centric, ignorant, arrogant, closed minded folks out there. It's important to cultivate the skills to separate wheat from the chaff. There is plenty of crap being flung on both sides, its up to us to figure it out somehow or other.