[TheAntiDoomer]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35890963

The world may soon achieve something long dreamed of by governments and policymakers: higher economic growth without using more oil.

Rising efficiency, conservation and substitution are steadily reducing the amount of oil needed to fuel an increase in the goods and services produced around the world.

Oil demand in the rich, industrialized countries of the West already appears to have peaked and the trend in developing economies is towards an ever-smaller increase in the amount of oil consumed for every extra unit of economic growth.

[mcgowanjm]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35890963

The world may soon achieve something long dreamed of by governments and policymakers: higher economic growth without using more oil.

Rising efficiency, conservation and substitution are steadily reducing the amount of oil needed to fuel an increase in the goods and services produced around the world.

Oil demand in the rich, industrialized countries of the West already appears to have peaked and the trend in developing economies is towards an ever-smaller increase in the amount of oil consumed for every extra unit of economic growth.

BWAHAHAHAHAHA 8D You're quoting CNBS as a reliable source?

Point to when CNBC called the Depression.
When did CNBC say to hold off on buying a home, especially
with PicaPay Options.
When did CNBC decide that Off Balance Sheet BookKeeping was
a Bad Thing.

Has CNBC even MENTIONED Repo 105s yet?

When did CNBC realize that Lehman owned Tishman Speyer?
Who owns Tishman Speyer now?

[TheAntiDoomer]

IF that link doesn't work for you farmerjim, I can provide this one:

Coming soon: 'oil-less' economic growth

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 690888.cms

Here's a little stat doomers will not like!

Global oil intensity -- oil demand growth divided by economic growth -- has fallen by about 2 per cent a year over the last decade and the decline is now accelerating, spurred by high oil prices, moves to alternative fuels and measures to curb global warming.

This does not yet mean that absolute oil consumption is falling because population growth and rising wealth in poorer parts of the world will push up oil consumption for some time. But it does mean global oil use will eventually peak and start declining -- and "oil-less growth" may not be far away.

[mcgowanjm]

Rising efficiency, conservation and substitution are steadily reducing the amount of oil

In Direct Contradiction of Jevon's Paradox and

Fischer's Paradox: "The more debtors pay, the more they owe"

and

Fekete's Paradox if you will: "The more the Fed tries to pump up commodity prices with its printing presses, the more they will fall".

And

Growth Never Pays for itself. It really is that simple. We get back to Eco-nomics and just when Civilization pays back what it
borrowed. ' Infinity and Never' is not an answer that the Planet will accept.

And let me get this strait, AD. You can't believe in Limits of Growth
and the SecondLaw of Thermodynamics, but you believe this:

Global oil intensity -- oil demand growth divided by economic growth -- has fallen by about 2 per cent a year over the last decade and the decline is now accelerating, spurred by high oil prices, moves to alternative fuels and measures to curb global warming.

Oil demand growth(since when )

Economic growth(This is after we've paid the Planet back or before. Have we had a Debt Jubilee or are we still counting
$1.5 Quadrillion in Mark to Fantasy, Off Balance Sheet Accounting.)

If the Decline in the Amt of Oil Burned is accelerating, Civilization
is Collapsing.

[mcgowanjm]

This does not yet mean that absolute oil consumption is falling because population growth and rising wealth in poorer parts of the world But it does mean global oil use will eventually peak and start declining --

Even your own article describes 'Oil-less Growth' as an unproven theory.

and "oil-less growth" may not be far away.

It's coming Almost here

will push up oil consumption for some time.

Oil Demand is being crushed. There will never be a Recovery. Only the Top 50 000 Households have recovered and only because they got the $trillion per Month Bailout and all their Loans are still marked to fantasy.

After that we'll find all the oil we need.

$29.77 per BBL by Xmas.

[mcgowanjm]

How Can Anyone Claim That The Housing Crisis Is Over When The Delinquency Rate On U.S. Mortgages Continues To Explode At An Exponential Rate?

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... ntial-rate

Over the past 30 years nearly all Wall Street wealth was the result of leveraged debt and tax loopholes: paying for corporate refinancings using interest deductions and phantom loss carry forwards. I believe that in addition to the mortgage securitization debacle, we will soon realize--from a greater, long-term public good standpoint--how misguided Wall Street has been in its use of debt. Despite various rationales about "unleashing pent-up equity" and applying it to good use, the public policy implications of Wall Street's actions are essentially criminal. We've mortgaged our basic infrastructure, and it's a real national security issue.

http://www.gregman2.blogspot.com/

Exactly how long the US has been dealing with Domestic PO.

[rangerone314]

Hypothetically, if inflation is grossly understated, what effect would that have on the GNP?

[dsula]

I remember at the end of the 90's, when the IP boom was in full swing. Some smart professors claimed in the future there will be no need for resources anymore. The economy will all be 'information' based and the whole world would become rich and happy. The oil story sounds a bit like that.

[gnm]

Oil Demand is being crushed. There will never be a Recovery. Only the Top 50 000 Households have recovered and only because they got the $trillion per Month Bailout and all their Loans are still marked to fantasy.

After that we'll find all the oil we need.

$29.77 per BBL by Xmas.

I'm not going to say thats an impossibility but I really hope you're wrong because that would imply economic implosion part 2....

Its possible that Chindia demand can offset lower demand in the US. We might continue to bounce around th 80's even with decreasing demand in the US. Guess we'll find out what portion of use is non-negotiable...

-G

[Novus]

This thread is troll spam.

[Plantagenet]

There is plenty of room for energy efficiencies in most western societies. The US has had periods of growth over the last 10 years while oil use has been flat or even gone down slightly.

In the short term a small amount of additional economic growth in the west without increased oil use is certainly possible.

However, additional economic growth in China and India, without additional oil, is impossible because their growth is currently targetted at allowing their professionals to achieve the American style suburban lifestyle, complete with two cars per household.

[eXpat]

The horse-drawn vehicle industry is about the take a leap!

[Revi]

I think it's possible, but unlikely. We are tied to oil here in the US, so when it sinks we drown.

The addition of lots of wind and solar to the grid could cause some economic growth. Efficiency and conservation could make more energy available to do useful things which could fuel growth as well.

Do you see it happening yet? A little, maybe.

The only thing climbing back up out of the Kondraitieff winter are the greenest, leanest, meanest businesses and people. They might fuel a new economy, but it isn't like the one we are seeing die now.

In the last century we were consumers. God was dead and the only thing to believe in was materialism.

Now we aren't being given jobs and money so we'll have to figure something else out.

I think we'll reconnect with the reality of the world and that will bring us out.

We will realize that it's actually very nice to be able to read by solar energy and get around on an electric scooter. Everyone will grow a garden and our vacations will be spent close to home.

What's the matter with that?

[mos6507]

The shift of the 1st world away from manufacturing into the service sector only outsources fossil fuel use. This is what powers 3rd world industrialization. Note that I'm using the word fossil fuel, not just oil, since much of the world is powered by coal, which is in no way good news.

If even after factoring that in, oil "intensity" is going down, I don't see how it can actually dip into the negative in any meaningful way as long as we have a growing population and a fundamentally oil-dependent culture. Wake me when I start see industrial agriculture and plastics powered by something other than petroleum.

[gnm]

The shift of the 1st world away from manufacturing into the service sector only outsources fossil fuel use. This is what powers 3rd world industrialization. Note that I'm using the word fossil fuel, not just oil, since much of the world is powered by coal, which is in no way good news.

If even after factoring that in, oil "intensity" is going down, I don't see how it can actually dip into the negative in any meaningful way as long as we have a growing population and a fundamentally oil-dependent culture. Wake me when I start see industrial agriculture and plastics powered by something other than petroleum.

+1 YUP.

Outsourced production = outsourced petroleum usage.. Then the first world can pat itself on the back for reducing emissions and lowering toxic outputs! Wow look all those environmental controls worked! /sarc

Not in my backyard is all that was accomplished....

-G

[rangerone314]

Maybe if we continue to accrue debt, neglect maintenance on decaying infrastructure, overstate GDP, understate inflation, and export our energy-intensive manufacturing overseas, we can continue to pat ourselves on the back for being "efficient".

[gnm]

Maybe if we continue to accrue debt, neglect maintenance on decaying infrastructure, overstate GDP, understate inflation, and export our energy-intensive manufacturing overseas, we can continue to pat ourselves on the back for being "efficient".

This is so true it hurts...

Don't worry though, I have a feeling we are going to get even more "efficient" in the not to distant future.

-G

[rangerone314]

I like what Thomas Friedman said:

"We are the United States of Deferred Maintenance. China is the People's Republic of Deferred Gratification. They save, invest and build. We spend, borrow and patch."

Deferred maintenance has a price. We will find out that enough of that will be yet another restraint on "growth", peak oil nothwithstanding.

Its like a person who was able to borrow enough money for a nice house and car, but now can't afford to fix leaks in the roof or get an oil change for the car, but they still want to do happy hour with their friends to keep up the appearance of prosperity and buy a round for everyone to still appear like a big shot.

Yup. Doing well. Nice car, nice house, nice designer clothes. At home eating rice and ramen noodles and the roof is leaking.

[TheDude]

I plotted it out - oil prod/GDP. Energy intensity hits zero round about 2070. Maybe we'll kick the spurs on her now a bit? But it's one big cheap laugh that CNBC never question the validity of GDP as a benchmark in the first place. Wonder what you get with prod/GPI?

Recommended reading: Econbrowser: The challenges ahead for world oil

The factors most responsible for reducing demand since 1971 cannot be repeated. Almost all the low-hanging fruit has now been picked; it cannot be picked again. The OECD has already done the easy fuel-switching, away from oil used in electricity generation and space heating.

So it's got to be true alternatives to petroleum now, or ridiculous efficiency gains. I'm for the former - eBikes/scooters. None of this waiting around for the major automakers to pull their fingers out. Toyota Considering Cutting Production of the Prius

[SilentRunning]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35890963

"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar

Concerning your tagline - This Sridhar you quote clearly didn't understand Darwin's work - because it is built upon Malthus.

There's also no guarentee that human ingenuity will be able to get us out of every predicament. Indeed, we already instinctively know that there are many, many people killed every year by doing stupid things - and they were unable to find a solution quickly enough to save them. Somebody falling off a cliff, for example, doesn't have time to invent an anti-gravity device while they are on the way down.

Darwin and Malthus would agree that a species that has overshot its resource base is in for a population crash - and that it wont be pleasant for the individuals involved.