[Graeme]

Oil reserves 'exaggerated by one third'

The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, the Government's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years.

The scientist and researchers from Oxford University argue that official figures are inflated because member countries of the oil cartel, OPEC, over-reported reserves in the 1980s when competing for global market share.

Their new research argues that estimates of conventional reserves should be downgraded from 1,150bn to 1,350bn barrels to between 850bn and 900bn barrels and claims that demand may outstrip supply as early as 2014. The researchers claim it is an open secret that OPEC is likely to have inflated its reserves, but that the International Energy Agency (IEA), BP, the Energy Information Administration and World Oil do not take this into account in their statistics.

telegraph

[MD]

This is really really really old news. But thanks for bringing it up again because it's so often overlooked

[MD]

[Graeme]

Well, the point is that it is now being recognised by the UK's Chief Scientific Advisor. He says that their research is independent of the IEA. And it's "current news".

[timmac]

"The belief that alternative fuels such as biofuels could mitigate oil supply shortages and eventually replace fossil fuels is a pie in the sky. Instead of relying on those silver bullet solutions, we have to make better use of the remaining resources by improving efficiency."

That is from the article you posted, I just wished we would have focused on efficiency years ago, especially with Americas auto's, we should be at 50+ mpg average today.

[Sixstrings]

Oil reserves 'exaggerated by one third' The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, the Government's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years.--snip-- Sir Richard Branson , founder of the Virgin Group, and Ian Marchant, chief executive of Scottish & Southern Energy, are members of the Peak Oil Industry Taskforce, which is trying to raise awareness of potential shortages in the coming decade.

I'm seeing this date of 2014 more and more, is that consensus on when TSHTF? Incidentally, I'd read on this forum that Branson is a peaker now but I didn't know he had a "task force" set up. This is from his task force website:

London, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015.

I have a feeling in a few years everyone will be talking peak oil, and we'll all feel like country before country was cool.

[Sixstrings]

This is really really really old news. But thanks for bringing it up again because it's so often overlooked

True, it's nothing I didn't read on this forum two years ago. BUT.. it is validation, when the "establishment" start saying it.

Funny how much tinfoil turns out to be true.

[dorlomin]

Well, the point is that it is now being recognised by the UK's Chief Scientific Advisor. He says that their research is independent of the IEA. And it's "current news".

The information is old but the source is very important. King has had the ear of the Labour party for many years and is widely respected throughout the UK establishment. Yesterday there was an important meeting in London between concerned fuel users and the energy minister.

Peak oil is breaking through to the upper echelons of power in the UK, though I am not sure the message is sinking in yet. The real power in this country is the civil service mandrins and it will be very interesting watching for any change in them.

We do have an election in a few months so peak may just get onto the fringes of the election agenda, the Greens are giving it a bit of a push.

[Revi]

We knew about this like ten years ago.

Funny how now it's news.

I think we'll start to run short a little sooner, around 2012.

We won't start to go down by 5% a year until 2014, however.

[eastbay]

Graeme.... this is important 'hot off the presses' news! Thanks for sharing.

As more and more 'mainstream' government and academia officials come around to understanding what we've long suspected, the sooner we can initiate mitigating steps. Looks like one more head has been removed from the sand. Cool!!

[mos6507]

I have a feeling in a few years everyone will be talking peak oil, and we'll all feel like country before country was cool.

Talking, but not necessarily reaching a consensus (as we can see via the retrograde movement on global warming). Europe's demographics are way ahead of the US in a lot of respects. When peak oil awareness hits critical mass there, expect a significant lag-time before the same happens here. Remember that Roscoe Bartlett talks up peak oil constantly to an empty chamber in the house of representatives. That pretty much says it all, IMHO.

[Sixstrings]

Europe's demographics are way ahead of the US in a lot of respects.

Another thing about Europe.. they are much more able to withstand higher fuel costs and / or shortages. All the cars you see over there are itsy bitsy tiny things, and there's efficient public transport all over the place. Plus, there's a culture of walking as opposed to America's drive-thru restaurants, drive-thru pharmacies, drive-thru banks, drive-thru smokes and liquor, drive-in theaters, etc. etc.

It's also denser living over there (not all subrubs, exurbs, and strip malls like over here). When you add all that up, denser living, small fuel efficient vehicles, walkable towns and cities, extensive rail systems and subways -- that all adds up to less oil required per person.

[eXpat]

U.S. Government Exposes Its Own Oil Supply And Demand Data To Be Completely Flawed

The Department of Energy has just released a study that found 'critical shortcomings' in U.S. oil inventory data.

Rig Zone:

The documents, obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request, expose several errors in the Energy Information Agency's weekly oil report, including one in September that was large enough to cause a jump in oil prices, and a litany of problems with its data collection, including the use of ancient technology and out-of-date methodology, that make it nearly impossible for staff to detect errors. A weak security system also leaves the data open to being hacked or leaked, the documents show.

Moreover, problems with EIA data underscore the hazards of depending on companies or other firms to self-report data.

While this may been suspected in the past by many in the energy industry, oil inventory data can still be a substantial market mover. Thus it's worrisome how, at times, it appears that data errors were large enough to make a substantial impact on the market:

On Sept. 16, the EIA released data showing almost four million barrels of oil had vanished from the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma during a single week. The market paid particular attention because Cushing is the nation's most important commercial storage facility. Its oil is used to fill orders from buyers on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil futures jumped 2.2% after the report

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-government-exposes-its-own-oil-supply-and-demand-data-to-be-completely-flawed-2010-3

[KevO]

Oil reserves 'exaggerated by one third' The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, the Government's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years.--snip-- Sir Richard Branson , founder of the Virgin Group, and Ian Marchant, chief executive of Scottish & Southern Energy, are members of the Peak Oil Industry Taskforce, which is trying to raise awareness of potential shortages in the coming decade.

I'm seeing this date of 2014 more and more, is that consensus on when TSHTF? Incidentally, I'd read on this forum that Branson is a peaker now but I didn't know he had a "task force" set up. This is from his task force website:

London, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015.

I have a feeling in a few years everyone will be talking peak oil, and we'll all feel like country before country was cool.

It's mentioned regularly now on the BBC as if everyone has always known about it