[Cabrone]

There are bonkers theories about a new American Civil War: there are predictions of it, even computer games based on it - and then there is reality.

But reality in America is looking a little bit different than it did before the passage of the Obama healthcare bill. Public discourse has reached "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" levels and, watching it all from the outside, I am wondering where it all ends up.

There has been an outbreak of vandalism - bricks through politicians' windows; there have been threats of violence and a lot of violent language. Democrats, in response have begun to accuse mainstream Republican commentators of stoking up the violence, and in turn they have accused the Democrats of trying to provoke a violent reaction.

All this has made me consider in a new light something said by an oil-man who consults for one of the biggest companies in the world. Last summer he told me:

"We run a mainframe computer simulation of the global political and economic situation, modelling various outcomes of the resource crunch that begins in the back half of the 2010s. And no matter which way we tweak it, it always comes out with the same result: civil war in America in 25 years's time."

For obvious reasons, given that the said company is a global player, they were not very interested in publicising the scenario.

In this oil company scenario the driver is not ideology but simply resources. As explained to me, the question becomes whether the world's biggest consumer of petroleum based products can move away from oil dependency fast enough; and in the scenario the answer is no because its political institutions are too consensual. That is, even where you get politicians who are prepared to act decisively, there are so many checks and balances - state-level opt-outs, Supreme Court, Congressional filibuster, corporate-controlled media etc - that they can never implement the most painful decisions. And as a result the political system fragments once the oil gets scarce.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/paulmason/2010/03/angry_america_why_an_oilmans_s.html

[Loki]

"We run a mainframe computer simulation of the global political and economic situation, modelling various outcomes of the resource crunch that begins in the back half of the 2010s. And no matter which way we tweak it, it always comes out with the same result: civil war in America in 25 years's time."

This struck me as a bit peculiar. A big oil company has a political/economic computer model of the planet, and they regularly run scenarios? Really? Do such models even exist?

It was an interesting piece, but some of it struck me as a bit hyperbolic. Yes, there's a lot of partisan heat right now, but this is hardly 1859. Or 1968 for that matter. Civil War II ain't exactly looming on the horizon. Yet I can't disagree with this:

If America is faced with huge, painful choices contingent on the outbreak of global resource rivalry in the next 20 years you would not ideally want to go into such a period with politics so polarized along ethnic, demographic, social and cultural lines.

[tahoevalleylines]

The Abraham Lincoln Solution was to build a national network; "A Guarantor Of Societal & Commercial Cohesion". Establish rational time zones, to facilitate scheduled operations on a railway matrix, built to a standard gauge (4'8&1/2") so all the equipment could run any place the rails are. Still running strong, about 1/4 the pre-WWII maximum mileage. Railways are private enterprise operations in the US. Oil Crash will bring about a return of railways to front & center status in American economic planning and maintaining decent standard of living. Note articles 374 & 1037 in peakoil.net, Newsletters 42 & 89, respectively.

Oil men are car people. They have trouble picturing an American economy not tied down to automobiles. You know what: we were a lending not a borrowing nation for well over 150 years without rubber tire economics. To assure connectivity and robust distribution and ability to travel thru the Oil Interregnum & beyond, we will build on the existing rail lines. We shall vastly expand mains capacity & reach, rehab 100's of dormant rr branch lines (Trails To Rails), and build some new main rail arteries.

All hands, the following is for anyone with some initiative, or having help to delegate to... Particularly, to the oilmen and the Peak Oil writers. Tea Party people are invited to back up rhetoric about defending the Constitution by acting to PRESERVE THE UNION OF STATES.

To expand the railway network in North & Central America is the objective. The scope of the job shall be to expand existing and dormant rail footprint to reach the Panama Canal to the South, Alaska to the North. This should be undertaken through the present decade, beginning in the contiguous 48 states, and approached as a local enterprise as much as possible. The Alaskan portion would be financed by Alaskan Oil income. Alaskans will see the wisdom of not relying on aviation for their future economic and regional security. Sarah Palin is hereby delegated to ramrod the Alaska/lower 48 railway link.

Mexico and Central American Nations can be left to dictate importance and timing of extending standard gauge rail South to Panama. Chinese influence over the Canal will fade as time passes, and the Central American version of the "Monroe Doctrine" will include secure North American rail link to the Canal.

Back to the job here- Any number of groupings of interested parties can take part. Students, Chambers of Commerce, State & County/local planning orgs, corporate interests, even banks and investment firms can get their hands dirty on railway building. As always, you gotta know the territory! Big shipping operations like UPS, Wal-Mart, Sears, American Trucking Association... These named plus others, already have operating maps of North America. They will get the railway maps past & present and see how railway will link to their distribution patterns and hubs. One source for US Rail Map Atlas Volumes is spv.co.uk

A favorite of legacy railway researchers is-

"The Official Guide of the Railways and Steam Navigation Lines of the United States, Canada & Mexico"

Cuba was included on ship schedules, and in fact had railway cars moved on barges from New Orleans to Havana until Castro. The Cuban connection makes sense again, and people in that region should consider rail linking Haiti, Dominican Republic & Cuba. Initial project should connect Haitian ports with rail line to Dominican Port.

Bound copies of the GUIDE can be found in larger public and University libraries; certainly available on the web. Look for years circa 1920, when US had maximum railway mileage, including electric interurban lines "shadowing" the class I & class II rail mains and rr branch line network.

Using the GUIDE, you can find your city or town in the index at the back, and see rr initials. Then look up the rr in the table of contents in the front of the book. So easy even Doomer oilmen can do it. Having the railway history of your locale, you can begin the task of seeing what sort of smaller lines were in the vicinity. Usually, you will find some branch line or interurban electric line that is not too far from where you live. Compiling the legacy railway map for your County is more fun if you let some school age talent help (you are doing it to assure they will have connectivity and ability to maintain food supply).

The State & Federal level role in this is less as a funding source, more importantly, prioritizing order of line and platform/terminal rebuild. Ideally, private operators will have primary role as the feeder and local lines are returned to service. Federal help with steel and equipment allocation will be the rule, not actually operating the system. Financing will be by shippers and equipment trust certificates: capital extended directly to fabrication of railcars & plant, income derived from the freight traffic.

Passenger traffic will share many of the freight lines, high volume passenger lines will have dedicated tracks. High volume dedicated lines are not necessarily "High Speed Rail". Moderate speed passenger ops around 125 mph are more energy efficient than vanity HSR. Energy limits will overrule most of the political vanity High Speed Rail projects. Cost of Jet A will determine which high Speed Rail projects are built. Airline operators will become railwaymen.

Reformed Army/National Guard Railway logistics units will station at priority branch line rebuilds such as agricultural corridors; see the construction phase to operation status, then move on to the next job. Background for the US Railway Battalions can be seen on the web. Ft. Eustis VA is home of the remaining US Army rr Battalion technical center. See copy of James A Van Fleet's little book "Rail Transport And The Winning of Wars" for prescient warning of homeland attech, and folly of relying on imported oil, and over-emphasis on motor transport vs, railroads. Rare in libraries, get from Association Of American Railroads or contact this writer.

Renewable energy source is new partner with railways, as the role of coal and diesel as energy source diminishes. See "Suntrain Transportation Corporation" on web, also "GoRail". See book on off-the-shelf renewable tech applied for local power generation and sustainability, "ELECTRIC WATER" (New Society Press, 2007).

Some will take the initiative, Godspeed. Doomers, make yourselves useful...

[gollum]

Being pretty hard on government myself, even I am shocked at the anger over the health bill. Yes I think the country will fracture.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Natio ... th_America

[Sixstrings]

"We run a mainframe computer simulation of the global political and economic situation, modelling various outcomes of the resource crunch that begins in the back half of the 2010s. And no matter which way we tweak it, it always comes out with the same result: civil war in America in 25 years's time."

This struck me as a bit peculiar. A big oil company has a political/economic computer model of the planet, and they regularly run scenarios?

Well, obviously no computer model can predict what even one person will do in the future, much less 350 million. Either the author made the story up (actually sounds likely) or what the "oil man" said was the human analysts own interpretation of peak oil consequences. Just sounds made up to me, I can't imagine any oil company predicting "civil was in the US within 25 years, every time we fire up the computer that's what it says." If their computer models were that good, they'd give up the oil business and open a hedge fund.

Interesting read though, thanks for sharing.

[gollum]

Here is a more up to date analysys...

http://petewarden.typepad.com/searchbro ... he-us.html

[Sixstrings]

Here is a more up to date analysys...

http://petewarden.typepad.com/searchbro ... he-us.html

With that in mind, I take back some of what I just said. It's amazing what can be done with social media data, but that is limited to what people are thinking and doing NOW, not 25 years from now.

[tahoevalleylines]

The MAP

See NAWAPA. Recharge the Central Valley & Ogallala Aquifers.

Add water and renewable energy power, flesh out the legacy railway footprint. Ecotopia can run the Sail network and have their cake brought in by rail... Trade lumber for grain products. The rest of North America stabilizes population and commerce around the 1920's transport model, with cars and trucks used locally, passenger & freight longer distance using Parallel Bar Therapy.

People with mapping skills would profit and look smarter too with equal time in the US Constitution and understanding of the distillation of human and divine inspiration that produced that unique document.

Keep 'em rolling

[gollum]

Here is a more up to date analysys...

http://petewarden.typepad.com/searchbro ... he-us.html

With that in mind, I take back some of what I just said. It's amazing what can be done with social media data, but that is limited to what people are thinking and doing NOW, not 25 years from now.

I agree no one can predict the future to a T, but the theory is in my opinion worth a look, and the social media is predicting long term social trends. A political or economic study may be able to see a year or two into the future, but friendships (which is what social media often reflects) often last decates or even lifetimes.

[gollum]

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/03/30/ir ... -approval/


A sign of the times, this won't end well. It will take years, maybe even a couple of decades for the system to collapse but I am sure at some point it will.

[Cabrone]

Civil war sounds a bit extreme to me but a break up along the lines of the old Soviet Union doesn't seem too far fetched.

The US is a big country - you need a lot of energy to get around it. Reduce that energy source and I'd imagine that communities would become more distant and self reliant.

In an energy reduced world what would South Floridians have in common with those in Idaho for example, or Californians with Alabamans?

Some of the posts on here have already shown the different zones within the US\Canada - how much pressure would need to be applied to create those splits?

Despite all the angry screaming from minority groups I could see the majority opting to peacefully split apart and do their own thing.

[pup55]

Do such models even exist?

I just have to comment on this point. I was working in a big chemical company at one point, and there was always a handful of young bright Ivy-league MBA's with offices in one corner of the basement that were put in charge of the long term forecasts, and they annually prepared the medium-term outlook for interest rates and that kind of thing....

The actual departments that did things, namely the sales, manufacturing and those sort of people that actually made and sold products used these forecasts as the basis of their budgeting every year, and also to prepare medium and 10-year forecasts of where the business was going to be.

So, it was a pretty important function, and here is why: The number they predicted for the 5-year in advance interest rate was used to calculate the ROI for any project that you might need to do. Example: If you needed to spend money to do a debottlenecking project to make the process more efficient, and get a little more capacity, you used these interest rate projections to do the analysis to decide whether or not to do the project. Also, since there was a pretty big lead time for any new projects to happen (up to 2 years in some cases) you had to know a couple of years in advance what your demand was going to be to know whether or not you were going to have capacity issues.

So, at least where I was, some effort was put into trying to predict what was going to happen in the future.

Now, here is where I am going with this: Being, as they were, young MBA's these forecasts tended to be "what the boss thought was going to be reasonable".... Even if their little computer models were predicting armageddon, they would not dare go to the CEO and tell him that. Invariably, the forecast would look more or less like what had happened with the economy the last couple of years, and assume that the same conditions would prevail into the future, particulalry if they got wind from some conversations around the coffee machine that the CEO thought the economy was picking up.

That is why everybody (except the radical PO community and some others) did such a crappy job of predicting the economic collapse that happened and is still going on. Too many of the corporate planners in these businesses are so inbred, and entrust this important job to their youngest employees, there is such groupthink that even if you did come up with a forecast like this, it is quite likely that you would miss your promotion opportunity and no one in the company would ever take you seriously again.

So what I am saying is: It is possible that some major corporation is paying a lot of deep thinkers to sit around in some corner of the place and make up movie script scenarios, but I think it is pretty unlikely, and also, it is unlikely that any of it would ever see the light of day.... and it would be a far stretch of the imagination to think that anything like this would actually be taken seriously or acted upon by anybody in any kind of position of authority within these companies.

I have been around some of these people, at the "C" level, as they used to say, in some of these big businesses, and the one thing you can say about them is that they are 100% certain that they reached their lofty position because they themselves are management geniuses. They know everything, they can predict the future with certainty, and so if someone emerges from one of the cubicles with a forecast like this that is contrary to their experience, they are going to laugh it off....

This, of course, is exactly why the current economic collapse situation happened, and also, exactly why the climate change stuff is going to happen, and why oilmageddon is going to happen, and even though there are plenty of warnings, 90% of the businesses in the country are not going to be prepared for the changes that are going to come in the next 20 years...

I suppose it was Campbell that said "sometimes there actually is a wolf".

[gollum]

Civil war sounds a bit extreme to me but a break up along the lines of the old Soviet Union doesn't seem too far fetched.

The US is a big country - you need a lot of energy to get around it. Reduce that energy source and I'd imagine that communities would become more distant and self reliant.

In an energy reduced world what would South Floridians have in common with those in Idaho for example, or Californians with Alabamans?

Some of the posts on here have already shown the different zones within the US\Canada - how much pressure would need to be applied to create those splits?

Despite all the angry screaming from minority groups I could see the majority opting to peacefully split apart and do their own thing.

I agree with your post, I think the central government simply becoming more irrelevant as time passes is much more likely than civil war. Really what do I as a Wyomingite have in common with a New Yorker anymore?

[mcgowanjm]

The Abraham Lincoln Solution was to build a national network; "A Guarantor Of Societal & Commercial Cohesion". Establish rational time zones, to facilitate scheduled operations on a railway matrix, built to a standard gauge (4'8&1/2") so all the equipment could run any place the rails are. Still running strong, about 1/4 the pre-WWII maximum mileage. Railways are private enterprise operations in the US. Oil Crash will bring about a return of railways to front & center status in American economic planning and maintaining decent standard of living. Note articles 374 & 1037 in peakoil.net, Newsletters 42 & 89, respectively.

The Rock Island Arsenal Bridge crossing the MS River started the CivilWar.

The TransContinental Jay Gould/JP Morgan RR Battles
began here. And created the Depressioin of 1873.

The Private Bankers using this Wealth with Oil to takeover
1913.

Post WWII the National Petroleum Council CIA Booz Allen Sullivan & Cromwell form
the 'Vision of the Future' for the US Empire.

I have been around some of these people, at the "C" level, as they used to say, in some of these big businesses, and the one thing you can say about them is that they are 100% certain that they reached their lofty position because they themselves are management geniuses. They know everything, they can predict the future with certainty, and so if someone emerges from one of the cubicles with a forecast like this that is contrary to their experience, they are going to laugh it off....

This, of course, is exactly why the current economic collapse situation happened, and also, exactly why the climate change stuff is going to happen, and why oilmageddon is going to happen, and even though there are plenty of warnings, 90% of the businesses in the country are not going to be prepared for the changes that are going to come in the next 20 years...

I suppose it was Campbell that said "sometimes there actually is a wolf".

It takes a lot of energy and good weather to keep an Empire together. The instant Energy Growth stops and/or we get year long droughts/floods (see Ozzieland for both), the Empire and then
Civilization fractures/disintegrates.

Notice how the 'Second Tier' Nations like Venezuela, Pakistan,
Gulf Oil States (per Leanan today) are described as incompetent
when they can't guarantee electricity?

[mcgowanjm]

That is, even where you get politicians who are prepared to act decisively, there are so many checks and balances - state-level opt-outs, Supreme Court, Congressional filibuster, corporate-controlled media etc - that they can never implement the most painful decisions. And as a result the political system fragments once the oil gets scarce.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/paulmason/2010/03/angry_america_why_an_oilmans_s.html[/quote]

And please, the Reps for the Top 50 000 US Households,
for want of a better catch all phrase, have know since
Jimmy Carter that Ghawar would peak circa 2003 per Matt
Simmons.

And why 9/11 was our ticket into today's Bizarro World
and how with the two latest Subway Bombings Russia
is at PO as well:

MAKHACHKALA, Russia (AP) -- Two suicide bombers, including one impersonating a police officer, killed 12 people Wednesday in southern Russia. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said the blasts may have been organized by the same militants who attacked the Moscow subway.

[mcgowanjm]

Don't kid yourselves. They know. The only question is how
to keep America in the dark and doing BAU for as long as possible:

In other words, we don't believe that world oil production will soon reach a maximum and begin to decline (the "peak oil theory"); instead, we believe that world oil production will reach a maximum, stay there for a few years, and then decline. That decline could commence as soon as next year.

Two comments: First, what's the difference? Is this just a way to announce Peak Oil without acknowledging it? The idea of the "undulating plateau" has been part of the Peak Oil discussion for years (see my book Powerdown), and world oil production has in fact been at a plateau since late 2004. Second, how is it that readers in France now know more about U.S. Department of Energy oil supply forecasts than Americans do? There has been no equivalent article in the mainstream press in North America.

It's time for the DoE to answer some tough questions. Too bad U.S. media outlets are evidently too timid, busy, or uninformed to (MY Edit-or Hopelessly Co-opted per Pup55 post above) bother themselves with the trivial business of alerting the American people to an impending calamity that is entirely foreseeable and that a few people in government are evidently willing to speak about (at least in code), if only someone asks.

$29.75 per BBL by Xmas/ Baltic Dry below 1000.

[gollum]

I just saw that the administration is going to open up a lot of areas to offshore drilling, I think they know the gig is up or they would have never done this.

[shakespear1]

"We run a mainframe computer simulation of the global political and economic situation, modelling various outcomes of the resource crunch that begins in the back half of the 2010s. And no matter which way we tweak it, it always comes out with the same result: civil war in America in 25 years's time."

This got me curious but after reading the above I must say it sounds like someone is trying to fool someone.

The use of the term "mainframe computer" sounds like the guys is in the 1960's or 1970's. I read once I think it was WIRE mag. that this sort of things can be done already on good laptop !!!

I conclude the story to be beer talk.

[mcgowanjm]

^
^
^
l_____Like this? I love it when someone desperate to avoid
CT's (which every Corporation by definition is) gets smacked right between the eyes by one:

This really is like the Harry Markopolos story, trying to get a hearing on the Madoff ponzi scheme, and being repeatedly ignored, intimidated, and discouraged in every way possible by the establishment, and even fearing for his life.

Even if this is a mistake, a hoax, some conspiracy, it deserves a proper hearing and an airing in the public. Ignoring it raises even more questions, and serious concerns about the integrity of the US markets. If instead of a proper airing there are only the smears, and disinformation, and the usual sly ad hominem attacks, or even worse, I will begin to believe that it is true.

King World News Interview with Andrew Maguire and Adrian Douglas ( On that American Civil War Icon-JPMorgan;}

I cannot believe that testimony is being completely ignored. I do not understand why this is a 'national security' issue. It seems just too bizarre to me.

Welcome to Bizarro World, Jesse

Declining oil output was one of the main factors behind the
decision of two bond rating agencies to downgrade Mexico's
sovereign debt last year.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

For a graphic on Mexican oil output click on:
link.reuters.com/paq35j
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Mexican officials said late last year Pemex had stabilized
its output problems at Cantarell. While analysts are skeptical
Pemex has solved the problem, the company is producing more oil
than its 2010 operating plan( how convenient;} assumes.