[shortonsense]

As us diehard peakers now know, our world changed in the recent past from a happy and wonderful pre peak world to the horrifying reality of the post peak world we now live in. The exact timing of the most recent peak isn't critical to this question, just the concept that its been a done deal for 5 or 2 years now, depending on your choice of what "oil" is mostly.

Now, I believe that each of us undoubtedly had a scenario or a concept in our minds about what a post peak world might look like, ranging from zombieland to renewable energy utopia.

So of all the wild and exciting changes which have taken place since peak oil happened, which has been the biggest SURPRISE? What one thing which you were SURE of, just didn't work out like you had figured?

Doesn't have to be a big thing, it can be a little thing, like someone must have thought that NASCAR would go belly up, there is just no way that racing gas guzzling billboards, let alone hauling them around the country in fleets of tractor-trailers, week in and week out, could survive peak oil, just no way!

Seeing as how I am as peaker as anyone else, I shall go first. In the interest of full disclosure, my surprise has been influenced by having been through one of these things before.

I have been absolutely floored, just stunned silent, by how little real gasoline prices here in America had to rise to cause the average American to react in a vocal and visible way (bitching and whining, blaming big oil, buying smaller cars, etc etc ). I would have bet my bottom dollar that enough Americans remembered the gasoline shortages and rationing and whatnot from the 70's to not be surprised, to have prepared in advance, to KNOW that sooner or later, such things would happen again, and to have a higher tolerance for the price increases.

So thats my biggest surprise, that a real gasoline price not really worse than the last one would cause the same types and volume of complaint...what I WOULD have expected is that the spikes in the 70's would have innoculated Americans much better, and therefore their full throated complaints and behavior change would have required a much higher real price of gasoline. Based on the chart I used, I would speculate that the bitching took place at about the same real price of gasoline....effectively no innoculation at all.

Here's a chart of real gasoline prices I was looking at when thinking about this.

http://www.inflationdata.com/Inflation/ ... _chart.htm

[thuja]

Biggest surprise? That we would have 85$/barrel oil just a year into the "Great Recession". I thought the price of oil would be killed for a little longer than that.

I have always thought of Peak Oil leading to a ping pong effect of recessions followed by comebacks quickly followed by new recessions where the price of oil was extremely volatile. That has proved to be...correct. What I didn't know is that oil could run up so fast in a deeply recessionary environment.

[mos6507]

That has proved to be...correct.

Except that peak oil didn't cause this recession (queue pstarr's usual response in 3, 2, 1...).

[Loki]

I have been absolutely floored, just stunned silent, by how little real gasoline prices here in America had to rise to cause the average American to react in a vocal and visible way (bitching and whining, blaming big oil, buying smaller cars, etc etc ). I would have bet my bottom dollar that enough Americans remembered the gasoline shortages and rationing and whatnot from the 70's to not be surprised, to have prepared in advance, to KNOW that sooner or later, such things would happen again, and to have a higher tolerance for the price increases.

People bitched, but there wasn't exactly rioting in the streets or a noticeable decrease in traffic. People bitch all the time about everything, myself included. Once it hits $10/gal expect folks to get really peeved.

And the 1970s were a million years ago man. I was in kindergarten. The only lesson I was learning then was how to color in between the lines.

[copious.abundance]

The biggest surprise post peak is that people won't even notice we're past peak. Nor will they care.

[Loki]

Biggest surprise? That we would have 85$/barrel oil just a year into the "Great Recession". I thought the price of oil would be killed for a little longer than that.

I have always thought of Peak Oil leading to a ping pong effect of recessions followed by comebacks quickly followed by new recessions where the price of oil was extremely volatile. That has proved to be...correct. What I didn't know is that oil could run up so fast in a deeply recessionary environment.

I have to agree completely, as usual.

I'd also add that I did not take into consideration ("surprised") that non-energy-related problems in the global macroeconomy would surface so soon and to such a degree (me and pretty much everyone else). I'll admit to a fair degree of ignorance about how the real estate market works, what derivatives are, what the parasitic cocksuckers on Wall Street do, etc. I don't feel too bad about that, considering even Alan Greenspan et al. clearly had no idea what the hell they were talking about.

So needless to say, I didn't expect these problems to supercede energy problems, but a depression is a depression, at least in terms of my personal preps. I'll leave the high level analysis to the academics and internet commandos, the cause of long-term economic decline makes very little difference in terms of my personal future planning.

I've always assumed a deep, grinding, endless species of Greater Depression, whatever its cause, but there may very well be more "ups" than I expect. I hope so at least, I'd like at least 5 more years to get my shit together.

[Sixstrings]

Hm, what's different in the post peak world, lemme think..

Well, we have a Democratic president who's saying "Drill, Baby, Drill!" That's something different, wouldn't you say?

Let's see.. the last oil spike sent us into a deflationary nose-dive, resulting in today's dismal economic figures: 22% real unemployment, 1 in 3 dollars spent in the economy now coming from the government, tax revenues in utter freefall, bankrupt states (they would be, if not for monetized-debt handouts from the feds).. a truly terrifying debt-to-GDP trajectory. Our debt situation is turning out to be a lesson on EROEI -- every $1 of new debt today actually detracts from GDP. What more do you want, Short, blood?

As we ramp up to the next oil spike, we'll just get knocked right back down again. Expect these energy-related economic contractions to continue, and this is exactly what post-peak decline looks like -- successive convulsions of lost GDP.

But maybe all this is too fancy and high-thinking for you, and you want "NASCAR" style anecdotes. Well, for the last year I've noticed it's gotten really hard to find vegetables out of season. I've never had this problem before. In my town, I can only get corn on the cob at one chain now (the most expensive). Walmart hasn't had fresh corn in many months, when I asked they said "it's out of season." I don't remember ever having trouble getting corn whenever I want in years past. Even at the expensive store, get this, they usually only have only TEN ears of corn for sale. The last family dinner I made, there wasn't enough corn to go around and I had to cut them in half.

And fish.. maybe you can't blame this one on peak oil, but it seems like all I can find for sale anymore is freaking TILAPIA. Yuck. A family friend of mine just got a job in a grocery store meat dept. This guy is a heavy fisherman and hunter, he knows his stuff. Well, he was shocked that they have ZERO fresh fish anymore. And they only have a few varieties for sale now, mostly tilapia, some cod and salmon and that's it -- all of it frozen.

Ok, so it's not peak oil armageddon, not having corn and no variety of fish are just little changes right? Well that's what collapse is for the most part, a lot of little changes that add up over time until you're living a very different life than you did twenty years ago and you find yourself asking what the hell happened to the world.

[Loki]

In my town, I can only get corn on the cob at one chain now (the most expensive). Walmart hasn't had fresh corn in many months, when I asked they said "it's out of season." I don't remember ever having trouble getting corn whenever I want in years past. Even at the expensive store, get this, they usually only have only TEN ears of corn for sale. The last family dinner I made, there wasn't enough corn to go around and I had to cut them in half.

And fish.. maybe you can't blame this one on peak oil, but it seems like all I can find for sale anymore is freaking TILAPIA. Yuck. A family friend of mine just got a job in a grocery store meat dept. This guy is a heavy fisherman and hunter, he knows his stuff. Well, he was shocked that they have ZERO fresh fish anymore. And they only have a few varieties for sale now, mostly tilapia, some cod and salmon and that's it -- all of it frozen.

Corn on the cob? Now? I've honestly never noticed whether they sell it at my local supermarkets, never crossed my mind to look for it. I still have corn I grew/canned last year, though not as much as I should. I usually just buy a bunch in the fall from local farms and freeze it, but decided to try growing it last year (easy, but takes a lot of space).

We've been fishing down the food chain for decades, not really anything to do with peak oil. There was a ton of fish at the Whole Foods down the block when I looked the other day, but last fish I bought was from an Indian fisherman who caught the salmon that morning. They also had a ton of meat, but last meat I bought was from the farmer who raised the cow. I almost never eat meat, but they raise cattle at the farm I'll be working at this season, so I imagine I'll be eating a lot of beef soon.

So there's another post-peak surprise for ya Shorty, a guy who's been 99.99% vegetarian for nearly 14 years will be going on a beef-heavy diet.

[mos6507]

Let's see.. the last oil spike sent us into a deflationary nose-dive

Sorry, the credit crisis sent us into a deflationary nose-dive. And speculation was part of the oil superspike. So that's two factors that distance the economic collapse from the standard geological peak oil doomer narrative, both of them related to how markets don't necessarily match supply and demand, whether it be real-estate or commodities.

[Sixstrings]

Corn on the cob? Now? I've honestly never noticed whether they sell it at my local supermarkets, never crossed my mind to look for it. I still have corn I grew/canned last year, though not as much as I should. I usually just buy a bunch in the fall from local farms and freeze it, but decided to try growing it last year (easy, but takes a lot of space).

I haven't tried frozen corn in a long time. I steam my corn, and as I recall the frozen (though store bought) ears of corn got mushy after steaming. What do you do, just boil your frozen corn? And when you freeze your fresh corn, how long is it good for?

I probably have to have it fresh or not at all, steaming just tastes the best. But you got me thinking here, maybe grilling frozen corn would come out ok, or perhaps wrapping it in foil and baking.

As for Wholefoods, yes they have everything and good quality -- but it's a 40 minute drive for me, each way. And expensive (I'm sure corn is still cheap but I'd end up buying other stuff there). Anyhow, I shouldn't have taken Shorty's bait and gotten into anecdotes, for all I know it could have more to do with less people buying fresh corn, or even less corn due to all the corn ethanol, who knows.

[Sixstrings]

Sorry, the credit crisis sent us into a deflationary nose-dive. And speculation was part of the oil superspike.

I understand your point, but I still subscribe to the theory that unless average incomes go up (they're currently falling), suburban America just isn't designed for over $4 per gallon gas. You can blame the speculators, but speculators are just pulling forward future market prices. How do you know they're not wise to peak oil? Ok so they all pile in and drive the price so high that it crashes again, but that doesn't mean they weren't right about oil becoming scarcer.

I mean, why else would they be speculating in oil if it were just infinite and there for the taking? You only speculate in commodities that you think will rise in price, and that comes from demand overtaking supply.

[Pretorian]

I also notice some small shits like the ones Sizstrings had poinyted out

[JJ]

Hm, what's different in the post peak world, lemme think..

Well, we have a Democratic president who's saying "Drill, Baby, Drill!" That's something different, wouldn't you say?

Let's see.. the last oil spike sent us into a deflationary nose-dive, resulting in today's dismal economic figures: 22% real unemployment, 1 in 3 dollars spent in the economy now coming from the government, tax revenues in utter freefall, bankrupt states (they would be, if not for monetized-debt handouts from the feds).. a truly terrifying debt-to-GDP trajectory. Our debt situation is turning out to be a lesson on EROEI -- every $1 of new debt today actually detracts from GDP. What more do you want, Short, blood?

As we ramp up to the next oil spike, we'll just get knocked right back down again. Expect these energy-related economic contractions to continue, and this is exactly what post-peak decline looks like -- successive convulsions of lost GDP.

But maybe all this is too fancy and high-thinking for you, and you want "NASCAR" style anecdotes. Well, for the last year I've noticed it's gotten really hard to find vegetables out of season. I've never had this problem before. In my town, I can only get corn on the cob at one chain now (the most expensive). Walmart hasn't had fresh corn in many months, when I asked they said "it's out of season." I don't remember ever having trouble getting corn whenever I want in years past. Even at the expensive store, get this, they usually only have only TEN ears of corn for sale. The last family dinner I made, there wasn't enough corn to go around and I had to cut them in half.

And fish.. maybe you can't blame this one on peak oil, but it seems like all I can find for sale anymore is freaking TILAPIA. Yuck. A family friend of mine just got a job in a grocery store meat dept. This guy is a heavy fisherman and hunter, he knows his stuff. Well, he was shocked that they have ZERO fresh fish anymore. And they only have a few varieties for sale now, mostly tilapia, some cod and salmon and that's it -- all of it frozen.

Ok, so it's not peak oil armageddon, not having corn and no variety of fish are just little changes right? Well that's what collapse is for the most part, a lot of little changes that add up over time until you're living a very different life than you did twenty years ago and you find yourself asking what the hell happened to the world.

the corn at the grocery I work for is .89 cent an ear. Year before last it was eight ears for a dollar. I worked commercial fishing 25 years ago. The "trash" fish we threw away is selling for 6.99 a pound now. The fish are almost gone.

[efarmer]

I am surprised that after being proven correct, the various sage woodpeckers
of peakoil.com insist on landing near each other and pecking on each other's
head. Not to soar as eagles, cackle as crows, hoot as wise owls, or even
assume the cat bird seat.

I was correct once, a long time ago, and I savored and enjoyed it and gloated
and blathered until I fell so far behind and went so wrong, I had to bust my ass
just to be average and mundane again.

It was swell...

Other than that, I notice that there haven't been any new Gumby cartoons for awhile,
was he made out of synthetic rubber or natural, renewable, latex? Gumby was a stoic,
and brave vulcanized action figure, and we sure could use him in these trying times.

On the fish topic, do you think that tilapia are perhaps eating corn on the cob?
That would explain it.

[Revi]

My biggest surprise post peak is how mundane it is. Post peak means most people don't even know about it, but can tell that something is amiss. They can't buy anything on credit and are barely hanging on as it is.

I guess post peak is an endless adjustment to diminished circumstances.

The middle class is dropping into where the poor used to be and the poor are dropping into the abyss.

As a barely middle class person I can see the floor dropping out below and am hanging on for dear life.

For now...

[Sixstrings]

On the fish topic, do you think that tilapia are perhaps eating corn on the cob?
That would explain it.

Huh. I guess you think it's funny we're driving wild fish to extinction, and are well on our way to having nothing but farm fish to eat. It shouldn't matter where you are on the political spectrum, even far right Republicans like to sport fish, and like to see something other than tilapia on restaurant menus.

Oh nevermind, what's it matter as long as we have corn ethanol, McDonald's fish sammiches and kraft dinner.

[Ludi]

My biggest surprise post peak is how mundane it is.

Yeah, just getting poorer and poorer isn't very exciting, is it? Where's all the Mad Max drama?