XOVERX wrote:The key point is that civilization cannot wait for the "invisible hand" of capitalism to work its magic.
The central problem of capitalism is that, at its heart, it is a reactive system, not a proactive system. It takes time for markets to react to changing inputs. Capitalism rarely plans for the long-term future.
Economic central planning is a disaster -- read up on the Soviet Union, Cuba, and pre-capitalist China. I would also point out that evolution is another reactive system -- and that's worked out pretty well for what, 3.5 billion years now?
Another word to describe capitalism's beating heart is "greed." Money today, production today, resource exploitation today -- to hell with tomorrow, let tomorrow take care of itself.
In general, there's lots to hate about capitalism but the alternative is a lot worse. Communism has a much shorter lifespan, we've seen that proven over and over within our own lifetime.
Other than resource depletion, my biggest concern about capitalism is that I think we're reaching the upper limits of sustainable productivity. What I mean by that is because of automation and tech advances, productivity is so high now that we no longer have enough jobs to employ everyone. This will only get worse, and it's going to be a problem because pure capitalism is not designed to sustain too many people only consuming without producing. People need a job to be able to afford what this highly productive system produces -- there's a point at which you put too many of your own customers out of work, and then it all falls apart.
As for resource depletion, well that's the million dollar question eh? Will they "think of something" or not. I tend to be a doomer, but to me doom doesn't mean mad max and extinction -- it just means some really nasty living conditions for a generation, maybe even a few generations (heck, the dark ages lasted a few centuries don't forget, but it wasn't the death of capitalism and civilization, just a reset).
So while I'm mostly a doomer, I can't deny that history shows "they" really have "thought of something" over and over again. I have an antique newspaper I bought at a yardsale a few years ago. It's from 1926. Guess what one of the articles is about? Peak oil. They don't use that phrase of course, the headline is something like "oil men fear the oil will run out." The article mostly goes into how the Germans were making gasoline from coal and such. It all sounds silly now, since in hindsight we know that they did "think of something" -- they developed tanker ships, they drilled in the Middle East and everywhere else, and they drilled at sea. All these were unimaginable in 1926.
Now I know I'm sounding like a cornie again, and I do hate that, I'm just always trying to be a realist about these issues. Just imagine you were one of those folks in 1926 who were worried about "the oil running out." In retrospect, all that worry would have been wasted energy, no?
Take away growing oil production and you take away the single critical element of the primary economy that, largely unnoticed until recent times, has (literally) fueled the engines of capitalism. Try shoveling coal or wood in your car's engine and see how fast you go.
That's true. But again, if you take a look at history you'll find countless examples of technology saving the day. I was just watching a show tonight about Carnegie.. he was the first in the world to mass produce steal, after discovering the new technique from a bullet maker in Ireland. Up until Carnegie, steal had been a rare and expensive metal.
If the world waits for price mechanisms to stimulate sufficient economic activity with respect to alternative energy sources, it may well be too late.
Well, what do you mean by "too late?" Too late for whom? If you mean "too late" for most people, I can agree with that. But if your'e saying capitalism will die out, and all civilization around the world will die out for all time, then I don't agree. It could be like the mass die off just before the Renaissance, wherein those left standing will actually be better off in terms of wealth and health than ever before.
Fizzling recovery because capitalism depends upon eternal growth in order to work, and growth depends upon growing energy sources.
You're right about that.. long term, we either have to expand into space or we need a die off. There is one other possibility, and that is that population just might stabilize. Data shows that as people get wealthier, they have fewer children. And when the problem becomes dire enough, government can step in as well -- China has stabilized its population with the one child policy, after all.
In short, insufficient oil supplies means economic chaos. Economic chaos means political instability. Political instability usually means war and death.
That's all true. But that's all been happening now for thousands of years -- what were you expecting, the good times would just continue on forever and ever? Nope, it doesn't work that way. Civilization ebbs and flows in cycles. I guess the whole doomer movement is just about coming to terms with the reality that those born after WWII were not born into some kind of new utopia -- of course there will be chaos in the future, how can you read history and somehow think things are different now?
During times of energy contraction, well, we are witnessing the failure of capitalism each and every day that passes.
I think that remains to be seen. Trust me, I want to be 100% doomer like you. Although more and more I question what "doom" even means, is it just a bunch of first worlders worrying about being impoverished one day? But that's off track.. I know this post sounds cornucopian, but these are the doubts I struggle with regarding the peak oil doom scenarios.
Thus is the achilles heel of capitalism looming, threatening to crush the life out of civilization as we have known it.
Well, so what? Civilization has collapsed before, it's never died out all over the world at the same time, and it's always bounced back. Expect more of the same, for as long as humans have human nature.
