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Time to plan for peak oil crunch

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Time to plan for peak oil crunch

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 04 May 2010, 20:12:46

Time to plan for peak oil crunch

The world may be basking in the warm glow of economic recovery, but some observers are warning of an unseen spectre, lurking in the background.

Just as the global economy has strengthened in recent months, so has the price of oil.

The warning bells are sounding.


Professor Newman says that peak oil was reached in 2008, and that prices have been artificially suppressed since then.

He says the 2008 crunch contributed to the global financial crisis.

"Peak oil did happen, I believe, in 2008," he said, "140 dollars a barrel was a massive increase and it didn't happen because some oil exporting country had a revolution or something - it just happened because we couldn't produce enough to meet demand, and that's what peak oil is about.

But Professor Aleklett isn't entirely pessimistic.

He says he has confidence that the market, and in the world's governments, will ensure that an oil-price-driven catastrophe will be avoided.

"I'm one of those people that believe that it's not very possible to have a high price of oil because that would mean the end of globalisation" he said.

"The fact is that [if the price hit] $200 a barrel then there an airline industry [would not exist] any longer."

The University of South Australia's Dr Vlado Vivoda also says a crunch can be avoided.

"What peak oil theorists miss out on is the fact that with improvements in our technologies and improvements in a drop in oil production costs what it is considered oil is changing," he said.


abc
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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Re: Time to plan for peak oil crunch

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 04 May 2010, 20:34:56

Graeme wrote:Time to plan for peak oil crunch

"What peak oil theorists miss out on is the fact that with improvements in our technologies and improvements in a drop in oil production costs what it is considered oil is changing," he said.


abc


Count this guy in with those who understand the resource pyramid.
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Re: Time to plan for peak oil crunch

Unread postby americandream » Tue 04 May 2010, 21:35:54

Is that "pyramid" as in "pyramid scheme"?

shortonsense wrote:
Graeme wrote:Time to plan for peak oil crunch

"What peak oil theorists miss out on is the fact that with improvements in our technologies and improvements in a drop in oil production costs what it is considered oil is changing," he said.


abc


Count this guy in with those who understand the resource pyramid.
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Re: Time to plan for peak oil crunch

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 04 May 2010, 23:36:45

americandream wrote:Is that "pyramid" as in "pyramid scheme"?


No. Its the Great Pyramid of Resources, from which all changes in estimates flow which continually trips up those who don't worship the knowledge bestowed upon humanity by the geologists of yore.

Page 7, Figure 16.

http://www.colorado.edu/Economics/vjcou ... ucopia.pdf
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Re: Time to plan for peak oil crunch

Unread postby americandream » Tue 04 May 2010, 23:53:14

Aaah. Them great minds of yore. Were they the same crowd who sold us the Great Pyramid of Derivatives?

Unlike you, I'm once bitten, twice shy when it comes to capitalism and it's snake oil.

shortonsense wrote:
americandream wrote:Is that "pyramid" as in "pyramid scheme"?


No. Its the Great Pyramid of Resources, from which all changes in estimates flow which continually trips up those who don't worship the knowledge bestowed upon humanity by the geologists of yore.

Page 7, Figure 16.

http://www.colorado.edu/Economics/vjcou ... ucopia.pdf
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Re: Time to plan for peak oil crunch

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 05 May 2010, 00:13:38

americandream wrote:Aaah. Them great minds of yore. Were they the same crowd who sold us the Great Pyramid of Derivatives?


Not that I know of. Geologists do the pyramid of resources thing, financial whiz's do the CDO and tranche stuff.

Americandream wrote:Unlike you, I'm once bitten, twice shy when it comes to capitalism and it's snake oil.


Hey, I didn't invest in tranches, weird financial products or the nonsense peddled to the gullible. Due diligence was carved into my forehead at birth.
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Re: Time to plan for peak oil crunch

Unread postby americandream » Wed 05 May 2010, 00:37:58

Are we to take it that all geologists (of yore) were of the one mind, agenda and paymaster?

There is nothing duly diligent about not engaging with the markets. An appreciation of it's duplicity helps immensly however, experts included.

shortonsense wrote:
americandream wrote:Aaah. Them great minds of yore. Were they the same crowd who sold us the Great Pyramid of Derivatives?


Not that I know of. Geologists do the pyramid of resources thing, financial whiz's do the CDO and tranche stuff.

Americandream wrote:Unlike you, I'm once bitten, twice shy when it comes to capitalism and it's snake oil.


Hey, I didn't invest in tranches, weird financial products or the nonsense peddled to the gullible. Due diligence was carved into my forehead at birth.
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Re: Time to plan for peak oil crunch

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 05 May 2010, 00:56:16

americandream wrote:Are we to take it that all geologists (of yore) were of the one mind, agenda and paymaster?


Not that I know of. But the resource pyramid concept turns up in quite a few places, so it at least appears widely accepted.

americandream wrote:There is nothing duly diligent about not engaging with the markets. An appreciation of it's duplicity helps immensly however, experts included.


My concept of due diligence includes understanding the inherent duplicity, rampant gullibility, "too good to be true" scenarios, basically all the schemes used in the most recent ridiculousness, including the "housing values can only go up" snake oil.

And after proper evaluation, I pays my money and takes my chances.

None of it will really matter if a REAL Doom shows up, now will it? Certainly a 401K doesn't mean much to a meteor in the 10km of diameter size class.
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