[shortonsense]

I thought it would be nice to share ideas on how to survive the next Great Depression. Let's assume there will be a new Great Depression starting in the fourth quarter of 2010, if you disagree with that, post about it in another thread. This thread is for discussing what we can do to survive it.

Okay. How about we do the same thing we all did to survive the GDII which just ended a few months ago? That one seemed to go pretty well.

[shortonsense]

blah.

How about you butt out if you have nothing to add?

I would disagree.

Many claimed during the fall of 2008 that we had entered GDII. Obviously, if those claims had the slightest credibility (which they must have had, otherwise people wouldn't have been discussing them) then it logically follows that we are now discussing GDIII.

In light of this, my comment was completely appropriate. GDII came and went pretty painlessly, so whatever I did not to notice that GD, obviously I shall repeat in the hopes that GDIII will be as painless.

Far be it for me to suggest that GDII wasn't all it was cracked up to be, like, say, grade inflation at schools? Maybe GD's aren't what they used to be?

[patience]

First wave down wasn't too bad, only a bit over 20% unemployment, per Shadowstats, but we aren't fiinished yet. No, we aren't finished with GDII yet, we're just living on borrowed govt. stimulus money with govt at something like 12% of the GDP. Sorry, short, that won't wash.

But this is about planning for what is ahead, right? So, short, how do you plan to handle the next leg down? Current predictions vary all over the map, but how about some tentative parameters here, like, say, 30%+ UE, Dow <6,000, S & P <600, all 50 states borrowing from the Federal Govt. to pay UE (only 32 now), and a couple big banks going belly up with the FDIC already in the red? Assume that your job is gone. Then what would be next for you?

That is the case for about 20% of the people in the county where I live now. What they are doing is finding some day-work, most are making it on UE benefits, food stamps, and other programs. Some have sucked it up and started their own things, from small home based businesses to some part time work that pays a lot less than they were used to getting.

Now, those people shop at the Salvation Army store, Goodwill, yard sales and church food banks. A trip to Wal Mart is a luxury--when they can afford the gas, and if they have the food stamps to spend there, according to a statement from Wal Mart lately.

Personally, I am finding more ways to repair things for people and save them some money, which isn't as profitable as fixing things the best way, but it means that I do get more business than if I insisted on doing only the best possible methods.

[shortonsense]

First wave down wasn't too bad, only a bit over 20% unemployment, per Shadowstats, but we aren't fiinished yet. No, we aren't finished with GDII yet, we're just living on borrowed govt. stimulus money with govt at something like 12% of the GDP. Sorry, short, that won't wash.

That would be the counter argument. I myself am on record for offering odds on a double dipper, using the analogy for the peak oil in 1979 and what happened in America.

However, Shadowstats aren't necessarily any better than the gov stats (anyones credibility suffers when "underemployment" is confused with "unemployment"), and the stimulus money spent ended up being not all that much. It looked like quite a bit, but much wasn't deployed, others was paid back, and it is quite reasonable to argue that a housing bubble bursting does not translate to GDII.

But this is about planning for what is ahead, right? So, short, how do you plan to handle the next leg down?

The same way I handled GDII, or the Great Recession, or whatever someone wants to call what happened in 2008. Start with excellent academic credentials. Apply professional experience across several fields of science involving increasing more complex tasks, completed successfully. Invest wisely, never forgetting what peak oil in 1979 showed all of us who lived through it. And finally, even in retirement, find something productive to do which supplements that retirement income.

In all honesty, I skated right through GDII, wondering the entire time what everyone was whining about. People who buy into a bubble, be they the silly mortgage owners, or silly mortgage sellers, usually get what they deserve. Unfortunately, it effects others, but we can learn from that mistake as well. For example, fixed rate mortgages are just that. Equity is mostly irrelevant when you don't use your house as an ATM. Living close to work in a well insulated home cures nearly all energy cost issues. Basic things maybe, but effective for mitigating the claims of GHII. And peak oil.

If in fact the second leg of a double dipper shows up, I figure I will rely on all of these same things again. Why not? Worked pretty good for me.

Assume that your job is gone. Then what would be next for you?

You mean, I'd be forced to actually retire, instead of being retired and working anyway? Okay..maybe I'd move to Aruba? Costa Rica? Get a cabin in Maine, stop trimming my hair, reread my personal library? Travel more? What do other people do in retirement?

That is the case for about 20% of the people in the county where I live now. What they are doing is finding some day-work, most are making it on UE benefits, food stamps, and other programs. Some have sucked it up and started their own things, from small home based businesses to some part time work that pays a lot less than they were used to getting.

We've talked about your area before. My recommendation was voting with your feet. Your descriptions seem similar to Appalchia, and they NEVER have done any good with 50 years of trying. The people left there just don't seem to have it in them. And then it becomes generational as they breed, and then it never changes.

Personally, I am finding more ways to repair things for people and save them some money, which isn't as profitable as fixing things the best way, but it means that I do get more business than if I insisted on doing only the best possible methods.

Competition....quite true. Lets breed THAT into more Americans, rather than the "gee I want it so why can't I have it someone owes it to me" attitude exhibited by much of America nowadays. I like it...you put everyone else out of business in your neck of the woods and end up OWNING the joint...I like your style patience.

[timmac]

And finally, even in retirement, find something productive to do which supplements that retirement income.

And we know what job that you are doing to supplement your income, Right SOS...........

http://www.infowars.com/canadian-govern ... at-forums/

[americandream]

There never was a GDII yer dolt. What there was was a bad asset device, badly concocted and which had to be socially bailed out. All in the midst of a globalising econmy that still has vast surpluses to extract from the "bowl of rice" a day labour market in China and India.

The only thing that has suffered has been investor sentiment. The oil spill does not help but some poor schmuck in buttsville, nowhere, losing his house and job is no big deal, especially if the government can subsidise his purchase of plastic pumpkins whilst he looks for the next bout of employment.

Things have never been so good for capital. In fact, coming out the other end of this fiasco will find us with a Western labour force shaken out by fear and trepidation and prepared to meekly go about as they are bid, more so than ever before.

Keep watching Jeremy Kyle!

I thought it would be nice to share ideas on how to survive the next Great Depression. Let's assume there will be a new Great Depression starting in the fourth quarter of 2010, if you disagree with that, post about it in another thread. This thread is for discussing what we can do to survive it.

Okay. How about we do the same thing we all did to survive the GDII which just ended a few months ago? That one seemed to go pretty well.

[threadbear]

In light of this, my comment was completely appropriate. GDII came and went pretty painlessly

The collapse is in progress. The crash has not occurred yet. There is a chance that further deficit spending may keep this half rotting carcass propped up and propelled along by P.R. maggots, for another couple of years. Just because things are ambling along relatively painlessly for YOU, doesn't mean the vast majority aren't either in poverty and unemployment or scared silent by the prospect.

[shortonsense]

And finally, even in retirement, find something productive to do which supplements that retirement income.

And we know what job that you are doing to supplement your income, Right SOS...........

No. You don't.

[efarmer]

I saw the thread title and I said to myself, hot damn efarmer, short is putting his bulldog persistence and inexhaustible stamina to work on a thread to cheer us all up. I had planned to say:

"I'm feeling kinda down about all the tinfoil on the forum and the top kill not working."

And then I was going to hum the tune of "Message in a Bottle" by the Police and maybe
even groan the "Sending out an SOS, Sending out an SOS" line a time or two while I waited for him to come ripping back and pumping me so full of sunshine that it shot out my nostrils and singed the hairs in my nose.

But no, it's just another flight of forum fighters in a dogfight spiral about the economy...

[shortonsense]

There never was a GDII yer dolt.

Hey, don't blame me, I'm just referencing the claims at the time. Lets not forget, we had posters who actually were so scared at the time they ran for their bunkers.

FocusonZ was claiming we were still in a Depression just 2 weeks ago.

Jan, 2009, Welcome to the Depression!

welcome-to-the-depression-t50421.html?hilit=great%20depression

Revisionists.....

Keep watching Jeremy Kyle!

I don't know who that is. Is he related to David Koresch?

[threadbear]

The same way I handled GDII, or the Great Recession, or whatever someone wants to call what happened in 2008. Start with excellent academic credentials. Apply professional experience across several fields of science involving increasing more complex tasks, completed successfully. Invest wisely, never forgetting what peak oil in 1979 showed all of us who lived through it. And finally, even in retirement, find something productive to do which supplements that retirement income.

In all honesty, I skated right through GDII, wondering the entire time what everyone was whining about.

If in fact the second leg of a double dipper shows up, I figure I will rely on all of these same things again. Why not? Worked pretty good for me.

Right, like a total lack of humility works really well, until you want to make...ummm... what are those people called again..."friends"? You need to pick up a few credits at the college of hard knocks, my friend. Anytime you want your ass kicked around the block, verbally, to facilitate this, I'll be glad to oblige. I usually charge a small fee for complete a**holes, but am subject to the same competetive forces as everyone elses, and know half the people on the forum would dearly love a chance to kick your ass, too, so may even offer to do it for free! I'd consider it a public service

[shortonsense]

You need to pick up a few credits at the college of hard knocks, my friend.

I was homeless my final semester in college. You ever tried explaining to the college recruiters why they couldn't reach you by phone and had to call your department chair instead?

Anytime you want your ass kicked around the block, verbally, to facilitate this, I'll be glad to oblige.

Knock yourself out. Like dealing with privileged bullies who couldn't think their way out of a wet paper bag isn't a scenario I've encountered more times than I can count.

I usually charge a small fee for complete a**holes, but am subject to the same competetive forces as everyone elses, and know half the people on the forum would dearly love a chance to kick your ass, too, so may even offer to do it for free! I'd consider it a public service

Oh, you meant like PHYSICAL stuff?

Silly me, thinking you meant something else! Fortunately, the version of peak oil rapture involving the "revenge of the knuckledraggers" hasn't worked out any better than any of the other hysterical scenario's. Good thing for us irritating egghead types, huh!

[patience]

SOS said: "You mean, I'd be forced to actually retire, instead of being retired and working anyway?"

Um, no. I meant GONE, as in not there anymore, and no retirement forthcoming. This is the case for those who worked in industrial jobs that are now moved to some other country. An astute investor like yourself, though, probably has plenty socked away so you don't have any need for a pension.

HINT: This is a not-so-subtle opening for you to brag about your wealth and brilliance in obtaining it!

I know. I'm a sucker for it, but troll-baiting is so much FUN!

[efarmer]

Go to the closet and get out the vacuum sweeper. Take the tool off the distal end and unhook the proximal end where it attaches to the assembly containing the motor. Put one end up to your mouth and the other end up to your own ear. Then just start saying things and arguing with the loud voice in your ear until you exclaim what the fox did when he tried to make love with a skunk:

"Man, I think I have had about as much of this as I can possibly stand."


But I know, you are probably a swiffer man anyhow.

[threadbear]

You need to pick up a few credits at the college of hard knocks, my friend.

I was homeless my final semester in college. You ever tried explaining to the college recruiters why they couldn't reach you by phone and had to call your department chair instead?

Anytime you want your ass kicked around the block, verbally, to facilitate this, I'll be glad to oblige.

Knock yourself out. Like dealing with privileged bullies who couldn't think their way out of a wet paper bag isn't a scenario I've encountered more times than I can count.

I usually charge a small fee for complete a**holes, but am subject to the same competetive forces as everyone elses, and know half the people on the forum would dearly love a chance to kick your ass, too, so may even offer to do it for free! I'd consider it a public service

Oh, you meant like PHYSICAL stuff?

Silly me, thinking you meant something else! Fortunately, the version of peak oil rapture involving the "revenge of the knuckledraggers" hasn't worked out any better than any of the other hysterical scenario's. Good thing for us irritating egghead types, huh!

So you HAVE had some tough times in the past. Not anywhere near as tough as I've had, and no doubt many on the forum. So what did you learn from it? Seems it taught you to be bitter, self righteous and devoid of compassion. Good on you, Mate! Enjoy your next incarnation doing more of the same. Ground Hog day for Shorty! I agree with some of your ideas about peak oil, though it pains me to ever be in the camp with such a mean spirited individual.

[shortonsense]

SOS said: "You mean, I'd be forced to actually retire, instead of being retired and working anyway?"

Um, no. I meant GONE, as in not there anymore, and no retirement forthcoming. This is the case for those who worked in industrial jobs that are now moved to some other country.

Not if they didn't trust their lying employer and saved their own money. Then they would have their own money, and it doesn't matter where their job went.

Not everyone in this country has spent their lifetime dependent on the largess of others. I mean really, didn't our parents and grandparents who went through the Depression teach us anything?

An astute investor like yourself, though, probably has plenty socked away so you don't have any need for a pension.

Diversification is a concept in financial circles, sure. Because the world didn't end the last time "they" claimed it would, I get to keep the regular pension too! If I didn't have that income, I would forced to rely on the others. Diversification....is....good.

If people don't have parents or grand parents who went through the Depression, I would suggest they borrow one, and ask pertinent questions. Best learning experience on this topic I've ever found.

HINT: This is a not-so-subtle opening for you to brag about your wealth and brilliance in obtaining it!

WHAT!! THE DECEPTION!

[shortonsense]

So you HAVE had some tough times in the past.

Are you kidding? That semester generated more and cooler stories than the 8 before it. Best steel from the hottest fire, etc etc.

Not anywhere near as tough as I've had, and no doubt many on the forum.

Oh yes of course, many tough posters, all rough and ready types, absolutely. My guess is you could assemble a near regiment of special forces types from posters around here, absolutely.

I must add however that overcoming shooting oneself in the foot isn't necessarily the "tough" I might think of. Look at guys like Ruppert, always repairing self inflicted wounds, surely throwing a few extra neurons at the problem to avoid such things is worth more than just the ability to continue "toughing" them out?

So what did you learn from it? Seems it taught you to be bitter, self righteous and devoid of compassion.

What did I learn. Husband resources wisely? Certainly I don't even know how "tough" I considered it. The rest of it? Nah.....I mean bitter? I'm consider myself the luckiest SOB walking the face of this earth, doesn't everyone else?

Good on you, Mate! Enjoy your next incarnation doing more of the same. Ground Hog day for Shorty! I agree with some of your ideas about peak oil, though it pains me to ever be in the camp with such a mean spirited individual.

Ground Hog Day! Good movie! But being an optimist hardly makes me mean spirited. What is mean spirited is when I advocate education, conservation and sound financial principles and people confuse it with cornucopia, right before trying to dismiss it all in a rush for Peak Rapture, all because they don't have a clue how humankind has managed to go from ape in the tree's to sending out our emissary's to other planets in the solar system, and pretend that a species capable of that would rather die off than use less crude oil.

[patience]

Quote:
"...pretend that a species capable of that would rather die off than use less crude oil."

I think there is n need to pretend here. It seems pretty obvious when we watch the oil consumption figures. We might also get some insight into the future of alternatives when Chevy introduces the Volt. I just don't see the world embracing the idea of voluntary conservation. Maybe forced conservation, but not voluntary. Cheap energy leverages our productivity for an easier lifestyle--not something most will walk away from.

[shortonsense]

Quote:
I think there is n need to pretend here. It seems pretty obvious when we watch the oil consumption figures. We might also get some insight into the future of alternatives when Chevy introduces the Volt. I just don't see the world embracing the idea of voluntary conservation.

Since when does voluntary have anything to do with it?

I conserve because its cheaper to, say, insulate my house and pay for less heating fuel than it is to not insulate and burn 5X the fuel...which costs more. I didn't insulate because I thought it was cool, or earned brownie points in my neighborhood, or because of anything voluntary beyond living in a human economic system. That system says if I can save $1000 in heating costs (minus the investment for insulation) each year than I can spend $1000 on gasoline for the wife's sportscar. The kids dental work. Etc etc.

Certainly voluntary is not required, the economic system we live in see's to that.

Maybe forced conservation, but not voluntary. Cheap energy leverages our productivity for an easier lifestyle--not something most will walk away from.

Exactly. Most will choose to insulate. You might call it "forced" because the economics will just make too much sense to avoid. Really, it works on you as well.

Lets say natural gas to heat your house costs $1000/month. What do you choose to....spend $100 to insulate it, at which point it will cost only $5/month to heat it, or do you choose to freeze to death because you are being FORCED to spend so much on fuel....when such a wonderful alternative is right there in front of you? Notice....this example is designed to show that skyrocketing fuel costs aren't the prime criteria for making decisions. Same game works for crude oil as well...who cares how much crude costs? Use something else, or much less.

[jbrovont]

TBH Short, IDK if you're serious sometimes or if you're just trying to be a lightning rod. The current economic downturn never ended. Even on a superficial level judged by market levels, we're far below where we were at the 15k level of the DOW - in fact we're now calling it the 'lost decade' and that's not considering inflation - even at the official numbers which are probably 3x below actual inflation. Unemployment wise, we are no where near recovery, and liquidity wise... well you can look up the FDIC numbers to see where most of America is there. Average savings...average income...median hours worked...median wages... one of the two of us isn't basing their assumptions in reality SOS... Perhapse your job was unaffected by the rest of America's downturn? Possibly you have no real basis in our reality? Who writes your paycheck SOS? And your agenda? Based on your posts I can only conclude that you have no understanding nor concern for the tribulation of the 'average American.'

Which begs the question - why should we tolerate you?

I thought it would be nice to share ideas on how to survive the next Great Depression. Let's assume there will be a new Great Depression starting in the fourth quarter of 2010, if you disagree with that, post about it in another thread. This thread is for discussing what we can do to survive it.

Okay. How about we do the same thing we all did to survive the GDII which just ended a few months ago? That one seemed to go pretty well.