[pup55]

Today the annual BP Review of world energy was released.

http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622

Nice of them to update the worlds petroleum statistics every year, while they are working so hard to keep from killing the Gulf.

It showed that there was a 2.6% decline in world oil production between 2008 and 2009....

It also showed that OPEC production declined 7.3%, nice guys that they are absorbed a lot of the production cuts to keep the market stable.

It showed the 4.5% decline in production for the UK and Norway, the proverbial Nordic Slide that we observed years ago as the North Sea continues to deplete.

Brazil's production increased by 7.1% and Azerbaijan increased by 15%.

It showed that world oil consumption declined by 1.7 percent, the US declined 4.9% and is now at a level not seen since 1997. Japan declined 10.7%, the EU declined 4.4% Ireland was the poster child declining by 10.6%....

Ominously, Kuwait and Saudi both increased by about 9.8%, Pakistan, one of the most dangerous places on earth, increased by 7.1%, and China increased by 6.7%. We can redo our calculation as to when China will overtake the US as the world's biggest energy consumer. Assuming the US holds fairly constant, the rule of 72 says maybe by 2021...... If the US continues to decline, maybe a lot sooner....There will have to be an additional 10 mbpd production just to satisfy China between now and 2021....Add to that another 2 mbpd just for India, whose consumption is growing by 3.8% per year.... Can you see a problem? That truly is one more Saudi added globally....assuming everyone else stays constant, which they won't.

Mexico: We have looked at this every year for years, to try to figure out when they will become a net importer of oil. The answer is now 2013. Their domestic consumption was about the same, only a .2% decline, and their production went down almost 7% thanks to the decline of Cantarell.... So maybe the Mayan calendar was about right.

We looked at Iran every year too. Their situation is much better, their consumption has gone down again this year by 1.3%, although their production went down by 1.7 they are in a situation where they can export for a few more years.... Of course, what passes for the Iranian economy is probably nothing to get terribly excited about....

Russia: Their consumption went down about the same as Europe, but their production increased a little, about 1 mbpd. Evidently their economy has slowed down too.

Interestingly, BP reported that global reserves increased from 1332.4 gb to 1333.1 gb, which says that we are not in depletion technically but just the Deepwater Horizon disaster removing 4 million barrels from the world reserves kicks this into the negative.....Opec reported a couple of percent increase in proved reserves, as they do every year. It's the land that keeps on spewing all of that oil....The US reported that its reserves were even between 2008 and 2009, thank goodness.... The two lone places on earth that reported an increase in reserves were Denmark and Egypt and if you add both of them together they do not make up for Deepwater Horizon. Mexico declined by 1.5% so I think it is clear that for them PO is visible in their rear view mirror, as Simmons says.

I used to do a lot of modeling down in the modeling thread, and really liked to use this as a source of data, since it is all in spreadsheet form, and compiled more or less systematically every year, but since the global economy is really so poor, it is hard to judge anything from it this year. We would have been running for the hills in 1979 too...

So, do with this cheery news what you will. You know, this is about my favorite day of the year, much better than my birthday.....

[bratticus]

ARE WE GREEN YET?

World 2009 oil use drop biggest since 1982

World oil consumption fell by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2009, the second consecutive annual decline and the largest volume drop since 1982, BP said in its annual Statistical Review of World Energy released on Wednesday.

[bratticus]

Interestingly, BP reported that global reserves increased from 1332.4 gb to 1333.1 gb, which says that we are not in depletion technically but just the Deepwater Horizon disaster removing 4 million barrels from the world reserves kicks this into the negative.

How does 4 million equal or exceed 700 million?

1333.1 gb - 1332.4 gb = .7 gb.

.7 gb = 700 million barrels.

700 - 4 = 696

696 is not a negative number.

Where did you get the 4 million from anyway?

[OilRefugee]

Interestingly, BP reported that global reserves increased from 1332.4 gb to 1333.1 gb, which says that we are not in depletion technically

Here is a Colin Campbell power point presentation given a few years back, and sponsored by Powerswitch.

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/in ... &Itemid=39

Slide #9, title, text and notes.

Depletion would appear to be something that started quite some time ago. Maybe you mean "when net additions can no longer keep up with consumption"?

[pup55]

"when net additions can no longer keep up with consumption"?

Yes, pardon me, but that's exactly what I mean. Dwindling nominal reserves.

Where did you get the 4 million from anyway?

Hey, you're right! Well, when things like this happen, I always say the same thing: Don't believe everything you see on the internet.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5420430/bp_oil_leak_fallen_deepwater_horizon.html

3650*500,000 equals about 1.8 gb. I suppose this oil is still considered a "reserve" even if it is being vented directly into the Gulf of Mexico and washing up in Biloxi.....

Of course, the Saudis can find an additional 1.8 gb with a few keystrokes, like they do every year so probably we will still see stable or slightly growing reserves next year too.

[Comp_Lex]

I find the changes not interesting or ominous at all. I expected those changes, because I do a lot of modeling as well.