[centaurian_slug]

Can computing tech continue to advance (or even Survive) after the oil age?
..or will we be too busy fighting eachother for the last scraps of food & working as subsistence farmers.

One argument I was given was that computers/gadgets advance precisely BY getting more energy efficient.
e.g. newest OLED displays (which work by emitting light per pixel) work more efficiently than LCD's (which work by blocking light) which were in turn more efficient than CRT's
and of course silicon process improves making smaller transistors..

Can we still produce microprocessors (range of fancy chemicals involved ? how energy intensive is their manufacture/R&D.. how many supporting industries.. )

will we simply have to stockpile existing devices? How long will they last? Aren't they are designed for a continual replacement cycle..
should I stockpile laptops /monitors /hard drives etc..
in a stockpiling scenario, what will fare better - laptops or desktops

I think I read hard-drive replacement & energy burn rate in datacentres is going to be the biggest problem..

What are the safest longterm digital information stores ?

Can the internet function off say wind+solar?
or will we be sending data-sticks around on carrier pigeons..

The most depressing predictions I've read are that (asside from possible 90% population crash) Peak Oil is simply the end of the industrial age, and that NO modern technology will be viable with all that pre-stored energy to burn.
I can live without a car. But losing computers..

Someone claimed that without long range trade, there'd be less need to spend energy on long-range communication.
My counter would be that shared global knowledge would still contribute valuable economies of scale.

"Information satisfies human needs for less energy" is an argument some anti-malthusian gave me, citing how - for example - between attending an orchestral performance & an I-pod playing back digital recordings, modern *information* tech had vastly increased our quality of life - due to the information refinement/abundance than the energy being burned to achieve it..

[dolanbaker]

At some point in the distant future, the extraction rate of oil will drop to the point that it is no longer considered a primary source of fuel.

Then it's prime purpose will be in the manufacture of plastics, chemicals, semiconductors etc. It will be too valuable to just burn!

It could continue in such a role for several hundred years.

[Quinny]

I can run my shiva plug server of my solar powered batteries for days. It's t'Internet that will need the power.

I've got terabytes of info/entertainment on hd and solid state devices that I picked up for next to nothing.

At least we'll be able to watch a good movie while munching the popcorn!

[centaurian_slug]

Well thats a reassuring optimistic answer, thanks

But as a demand won't pharmecuticals, pesticides outweigh semiconductors
and will the prices of these things become astronomical
are you assuming "demand destruction" from oil wars (plenty of plastics, chemicals, semiconductors for the survivors)

[dolanbaker]

Demand destruction will simply occur by the use of alternative materials where possible or the ceasing of manufacture of certain products, for example those pointless McDonalds happy meal toys would soon disappear along with upgrading to the latest gadget for the sake of it.

Wood will be reused for many products that changed to plastic, clothes pegs for example.
So demand destruction is not as bad as it sounds.

With computer hardware, it'll simply be a case of keeping them longer and only upgrading parts when really necessary, they will cost more in the future.

[centaurian_slug]

With computer hardware, it'll simply be a case of keeping them longer and only upgrading parts when really necessary, they will cost more in the future.

ok - now we're into gloom and doom territory
i can sort of understand now why all the car-drivers are in denial about this - it's just too horrific to contemplate

will the same parts even cost the same. computer parts usually evolve rapidly.
what i'm seeing difficulty happening after peak oil - X hours of labour = same computer with Y cores, Z gb ram, W gigs of hard-drive
let alone people continuing evolving our gaming rigs until we get the Holodeck/Matrix (whatever you want to call it)

[Comp_Lex]

No, we're not going into doom and gloom territory. This is the "reality territory". This is a normal course of development. Most people expect different things due to the fact that they don't have the correct information at their disposal and they are not really willing to learn. This is the normal route of evolution of our society. Expecting anything different is crazy.

computer parts usually evolve rapidly.

Do you understand why computer parts evolve rapidly?

[centaurian_slug]

Do you understand why computer parts evolve rapidly?

lets hear your explanation.
machines can enhance our quality of life for less energy expenditure, and relieve us of chores.
(e.g. in the past some would expend huge energy keeping slaves, wheras we can construct automated devices to do these jobs)
personally i was looking forward to some sort of transhumanist future, linking our brains into a literal hivemind, von-neuman machines harnessing all the solar system's resources & building a dyson sphere, etc.. we just see this progress toward that one tiny step at a time through the commercial process.
this is all threatened by descent into 'soylent-green'/'mad-max' scenario which seems more plausible. oil wars already started, financial system disintegrating etc.

[Comp_Lex]

You have to understand that computing tech hasn't changed a lot at the architectural level in the last few decades. The perceived progress by computing tech is actually caused by companies making transistors smaller (Die Shrink). This made the way for cranking more transistors on a die (= more computing power) and higher clock frequencies (= more computing power for a specific architecture). Unfortunately, this caused a nasty side effect for the public (Megahertz Myth). Nowadays, that myth has been replaced by the Multicore Myth due to heat problems.
Anyway, here is my response to the last part of your post: we really need to get over this big hurdle before we can do anything else. I don't know how long this is going to take, but I expect that I won't be saying "resistance is futile" in my lifetime.

[centaurian_slug]

You have to understand that computing tech hasn't changed a lot at the architectural level in the last few decades. The perceived progress by computing tech is actually caused by companies making transistors smaller

I'm aware of architectural improvements - e.g. gaining new instructions, SIMD etc..
we also have GPU's having evolved from simple single functions triangle rasterizers into massively parallel general purpose stream processing units which have also been used to accelerate scientific computing.
these are key because they deal with the interface to & from humans.
even hope for displacing x86 legacy with ARM appearing in low end laptops (smartbooks) and being considered for servers (motivated by energy efficiency).
The "Megahertz Myth" is just a ballpark approximation made by the public. desire for faster machines has driven evolution forward and allowed crossing qualitative boundaries in what PC's can be used for.
there's a range of devices out there. CELL, various DSPs in phones, AMD fusion should be pretty interesting ( scope to combine execution resources with CPU/GPU ISA front ends & hopefully more fine-grain rapid communication in GPGPU applications..)

but I expect that I won't be saying "resistance is futile" in my lifetime.

I'd agree, I am just describing the "limit" for anyone who thinks computers are "powerful enough". & from a social perspective augmenting your own intelligence is preferable to being 'bred as cattle by elite'.
it would be a real shame if our tech level returns to the C18th ..

[Comp_Lex]

I notice that I have a different perspective on how things work and change. Ah well, it's important that the software runs in the end

I want to talk more about the more interesting things in your post.

even hope for displacing x86 legacy with ARM appearing in low end laptops (smartbooks) and being considered for servers (motivated by energy efficiency).

That might happen. I know that professor Tanenbaum once said that X86 (in desktop computers) would be replaced by another architecture by the end of the 90s. That didn't happen, but I can see ARM taking over the low end segment of the market. I don't know how likely that is by the way, because Intel and AMD are making huge strides in making their processors more energy efficient (i.e. the performance-per-watt race you are probably aware of).
I also don't know how much time we have. Well, I think it is rather silly to talk about time here, because I see it all as a continuous process (or a combination of processes) and there is nothing certain. It is absolutely not the case the everything will just be over after a single event. There will be no defined border between "Before" (present) and "After" (post-apocalyptic world somewhere in the future, whatever the apocalypse is and how it looks like). For example, I don't know when we're going to use 18th century tech, but I know one thing for certain: we (the Western world) will do anything to retain the current standard of living, even if it involves WW3 with nuclear weapons. There are lot of "greys" also, if you know what I mean. I can imagine a future where we would use horses with carriages for transportation and iPhones for long-distance communication
What are your ideas about this?

[davep]

it's important that the software runs in the end

Is it? Compared to the myriad horrors awaiting us, I don't rate software high on the list of things we will need on the downward slope.

Maybe it would be useful as an archive for the likes of CD3WD, but that can be done on paper anyway. The big potential loss could be in the collective availability of information. But there are ways around that. Buy books. Lots of them.

[Comp_Lex]

No, that was related to the architecture discussion. Of course, software is not important.

[dolanbaker]

I replied to this earlier, but it appears that the gremlims ate my post!

Assuming that we take to most likely scenario, a long slow decline, caused by the available energy reducing per person every year until completely exhausted.

Hardware will continue to "improve" get faster etc but their relative costs will stop falling as they have historically done, the manufacturing cost is directly related to the cost of fuel. The trend of Home PC's becoming "black boxes" that don't allow easy upgrading will continue for a while yet.
It is probable that these PC's will in future retain their value, as the economy continues to slide and many will look at secondhand PC, because new ones are now too expensive for them.

Unless there is any major change in the standard of hardware, like USB replacing serial/parallel interfaces for example, all the computer hardware built in the past 5 years or so is perfectly able to run most of the current software applications, (top end graphic intensive games excepted) and will be useable for another ten years or so.

In ten years time I reckon that most PC's will be like games machines, hard disks will have been replaced by solid state sd ram type memory, they will be built to last and will be serviceable & expensive.

The days of throwaway PC cards will soon be numbered!

[centaurian_slug]

Interesting replies and i'd like to hear more thoughts on this...

>> I can imagine a future where we would use horses with carriages for >>transportation and iPhones for long-distance communication
>>What are your ideas about this?
Yes, I can see that.

One other question I have is Bicycles. (Bicycle+ laptop are high on my list of survival bunker items) I think a bicycle is superior transport to horse & cart. But they involve precision machining to construct.. materials like aluminium, & titanium/carbon fibre if you 're lucky.. will Bicycles survive?!! - that's a seperate thread.


I would like to know more about PERMANENT datastores:- I think i've seen a table of survivability of various media.. hard-drives being very low on the list. even CD's are set to degrade.

I'm also interested in ways that services like YouTube could be adapted to low-bandwidth.. i'm sure that will happen incrementally via the market.
(e.g. low bandwidth is used to communicate textual requests, Carrier Pigeon arrives the next day with a datastick loaded with all the videos you want .. )

this is really scaring me now.

>>"hard disks will have been replaced by solid state sd ram type memory, they will be built to last and will be serviceable & expensive."
hope so.

>>"In ten years time I reckon that most PC's will be like games machines,"

I hope you dont mean the extent to which they're closed systems.. again, thats "the abyss".

>>No, that was related to the architecture discussion. Of course, >>software is not important.

I'm sort of hoping Peak Oil means incentive to refine efficient software
but we might be more preoccupied with other issues.

>>"There will be no defined border between "Before" (present) and >>"After" (post-apocalyptic world somewhere in the future,"

Yes distressingly, halving the population could just play out as "businuess as usual". 60million gone per year for 50 years. states becoming more authoritarian / lawless areas gradually growing ..

>>In ten years time I reckon that most PC's will be like games machines,
the most interesting trends I've read about are Larabee, Fusion, and the competing NVidia idea of sticking an x86 on the graphics chip
If we get an integrated GPGPU before decline that would be nice.
one good thing about the games machines is the efficiency of everything being tightly integrated.


I wish all the stupid stories about "Abiotic Oil" or "price signals smoothly guiding us to alternatives" were true

[centaurian_slug]

Another question:-
is this a topic handled better in greater detail any other sub-forum or site.
it must be a common topic.

[dolanbaker]

If we're going down the doomer path (world war, disease etc), IT hardware and comms will soon be history!
When it fails, "that all folks!" any such society will be dealing with the essentials first.
I don't a short-term collapse (Mad Max style) will happen.

If you're worried about whether bicycles would be made, you're so far down the line that PC's will have been forgotten.

In the medium term (20-100 years) a point will be reached when oil will no longer be used as fuel, but only in the manufacture of plastics and other oil based materials. Electronics will still continue to be manufactured, but their diversity will be reduced and only products that are needed will be produced. would you pay €5000 for a laptop? If you need one you will!

I don't see how datacoms would need to slow down, if anything the internet would speedup as the number of users falls off, due to being unable to afford replacement PC's or paying the electric bill.
A 1Gb/s ADSL modem uses the same power as a dialup 56kb/s modem.

Most electronic devices will use less power than today's models, it's quite possible that certain classes of equipment is outlawed, large plasma screen TVs for example.

More efficient software and no hard disks should mean that future PCs will use less power, as well as instant on!

As for your last point, post-apocalyptic world, read up on "an gorta mór" the Irish famine of the 1840s.

[Comp_Lex]

Well, I can see myself working in fields in order to grow food and/or installing solar panels at day and working on my software at night. The software will probably be distributed by using (the remnants of) the internet and by using lasting data storage "things". There is of course a chance that I might be doing something completely different. I might be even dead in 20 years.
I've also read a bit about the Irish Famine of the 1840s. That was an interesting read. I can actually see that happening for a lot of people in the next few decades. I could die of famine as well.
@Slug Response to your other question: This has been discussed before, I think, but not too much so this isn't bad. I know that there is some unconstructive hate towards IT people on this board, because they are generally optimistic about our future. They think about some Techno-Utopian world that might not come to pass in real life. Well, certainly not in the near-future.

[dolanbaker]

IT people tend to have a less hysterical outlook on life, so are less likely to see only the decline and the total inability of society to adapt. Sure, if some unbelivable event happened that removed all the oil in one go! then it would be mad max territory.

The only problem that some IT people have, is to exaggerate the importance of computers in a reduced energy world. They will be used where needed and nowhere else, controlling equipment, performing data manipulation etc, not for us to watch the latest DVD's/play high graphic intensive games on.

That's one of the reasons I predict that they will transform into simple boxes that will connect like games machines to the TV and data (telephone) line, it will be a one piece data communications/entertainment device combining video, phone, email, internet etc.

Just about any PC on the market today could be configured to work like that, but a properly designed integrated unit will use fewer parts and consume much less power. Having just the one device will eliminate dozens of household gadgets along with their wasteful standby power etc.

In the grand scheme of things (energy wise), IT is just a a small cog, the big wheels are private transport and all that goes with it, global transportation of goods that could be produced locally and intensive agriculture. Those are the issues that will cause the real problems.

[centaurian_slug]

That's one of the reasons I predict that they will transform into simple boxes that will connect like games machines to the TV and data (telephone) line, it will be a one piece data communications/entertainment device combining video, phone, email, internet etc.

agree.. well thats definitely already happening with smartphones etc .. highly integrated chipsets devices which are easily capable of the range of activities most people need (when you strip away the bloat).

for me though, the whole gaming/high end CG progress and associated media is the biggest thing i'd miss about the modern world.. thats' my "cultural template" I guess.

In the grand scheme of things (energy wise), IT is just a a small cog

well, the techno-utopian view is that IT would deliver a high quality of life for far less energy use than the existing transport networks
here's hoping.