[Graeme]

Peak oil alarm revealed by secret official talks

Speculation that government ministers are far more concerned about a future supply crunch than they have admitted has been fuelled by the revelation that they are canvassing views from industry and the scientific community about "peak oil".

The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is also refusing to hand over policy documents about "peak oil" – the point at which oil production reaches its maximum and then declines – under the Freedom of Information (FoI) Act, despite releasing others in which it admits "secrecy around the topic is probably not good".

Experts say they have received a letter from David Mackay, chief scientific adviser to the DECC, asking for information and advice on peak oil amid a growing campaign from industrialists such as Sir Richard Branson for the government to put contingency plans in place to deal with any future crisis.

guardian

[Graeme]

This might be closer to the real reason as stated further down in the article:

But an internal IEA source said: "Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible, but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources."

[Expatriot]

Those comments were written 12 months ago, but a letter in response to the FoI request written by DECC officials and dated 31 July 2010 says it can only release some information on what is currently under policy discussion because they are "ongoing" and "high profile" in nature.

When we willingly allow the government we select to keep information from us on the theory that we're too stupid to be told the truth, then we deserve whatever fate we get.

[Xenophobe]

This might be closer to the real reason as stated further down in the article:

But an internal IEA source said: "Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible, but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources."

It is about time those inside IEA make their concerns public. You would think that job security is trumped by physical insecurity--and declining energy, food, and shelter.

The referenced quote seems to indicate that the financial markets are the ones which would panic, and Americans in favor of imperialism. The reference does not appear to indicate that peak oil will effect energy in general, food or shelter. Certainly my house does not fall down because of the potential rationing of motor fuel nor is my ability to go to work changed. Food prices might rise, as they did during the peak price in 2008, but then they just as obviously come down as well.

[efarmer]

That is one explanation, another that to me is more probable is that the hubris is wearing off and they are in the early stages of coming to grips with PO.
Whereas the information has been more available to them than to us, the positions they hold create the inertia for denial until reality literally bites them on the butt. One bite to announce it's arrival, another bite to break the fever of their hubris, and the third bite to convince them it is not a mirage. Then the panic sets in...

You know, the panic about money and power resting on real resources and productive capability and both for the foreseeable future resting on oil, which is doubtful of being up to the task. This comes as quite a shock for people who believe that wielding the symbolic objects of money and power automatically must cause the real money and power to follow their moves. Dismayed at the accelerator not working, one is then perplexed by the brakes not functioning either, and when motions on the steering wheels causes wiggles from the chassis but no real turning movement, one realizes they are in the driver seat allright but they are now a passenger. Much much later, their mindset begins to match probable reality, but only after a grieving period.

[Expatriot]

Food prices might rise, as they did during the peak price in 2008, but then they just as obviously come down as well.

What do you mean?
I'd expect food prices to increase with the average cost of FFs, then, at some point of depletion, level out to the non-FF price level.

[Pops]

I read 40% of American corporate profits are in the financial sector - can that be right? What does that mean? Can they really make that much borrowing from the fed at 0% and loaning to the Treasury at interest? Don't want to stop the (F.I.R.E.) Engine of the economy!

Coolidge admiringly said, "The business of America is Business." and man he'd love to see us now - all we do is business, and I mean ALL! It's like one of those movies from the '50's with the ticker tape machine ticking and the secretarial pool all busily tapping away...

I guess that's it, America is the world's secretarial pool.

[americandream]

Combine the minimal cost of Asian labour in manufacturing along with the endless array of wealth that one can extract by further securitising the existing array of global assets and I think it's fair to say that America sits at the heart of a very profitable money making machine (for those rich enough to partake in it's cycles.)

I read 40% of American corporate profits are in the financial sector - can that be right? What does that mean? Can they really make that much borrowing from the fed at 0% and loaning to the Treasury at interest? Don't want to stop the (F.I.R.E.) Engine of the economy!

Coolidge admiringly said, "The business of America is Business." and man he'd love to see us now - all we do is business, and I mean ALL! It's like one of those movies from the '50's with the ticker tape machine ticking and the secretarial pool all busily tapping away...

I guess that's it, America is the world's secretarial pool.

[Xenophobe]

Food prices might rise, as they did during the peak price in 2008, but then they just as obviously come down as well.

What do you mean?
I'd expect food prices to increase with the average cost of FFs, then, at some point of depletion, level out to the non-FF price level.

I watched a few staple items climb during 2008 and was quite surprised. I was just as surprised as those staple items then dropped in price heading into 2009.

Recently I have been paying attention to portion amounts and such, because changing that appears to be a popular way to raise prices on an item without the average consumer noticing. But the milk and chicken I regularly purchase, by the gallon and pound, have dropped back to their pre-2008 prices. Pork prices seem to have gone up recently, I believe I've seen the reason for that listed somewhere, and of course it isn't FF related.

But there appear to be there assemblies of ideas which people like myself, who aren't familiar with them, are surprised by when someone jumps from peak oil to lack of energy in general, food or shelter.

[Revi]

At least the British government is talking about it. I'm sure our government is talking too, but we aren't privy to the information. I think they should start to try to figure something out and soon about the peak oil problem.

Unfortunately it will probably be something that hurts the poor and middle class.

It's time to do something. I have a feeling that the price of oil will wake up from it's slumber some time soon.

[Nano]

At least the British government is talking about it. I'm sure our government is talking too, but we aren't privy to the information. I think they should start to try to figure something out and soon about the peak oil problem.

For a government official,, or someone in charge of (a) business, peak oil doesn't really change anything. Once you understand the problem, you understand that there is nothing you can do in terms of changing the way you do your job. You realise it's always better to just hush hush and pretend you're one of the 'sheeple'. Take what you can get while it lasts, and 'it' could last for another 5 or 10 years probably. And what good does it do to stand up and say: "The emperor has no clothes?". The only result of doing something like that is that you probably lose your job or the support of your shareholders. Sir Branson is an anomaly. 99.99% percent of people with his kind of power quickly figure out that it is not in their interest to act on knowledge of peak oil, which is probably the reason that they're not even interested in the subject in the first place. No one ever made a promotion or a bonus because of promising 'less'. You must always promise 'more'. And that's what we'll do until the wheels fall off. Don't kid yourself. The only people actively pursuing and communicating peak oil issues are the peak oil authors (in order to sell their books), the O&G pensioners that got bored with life out of the limelight, and the young and/or poor internetgeeks who are seeing their future prospects evaporate and are turning angry at the state of the class war.

[Mesuge]

Branson might look as an odd bird in this situation, but If I'm not mistaken he owns his private tropical island and stuff. So, he can speak from a very secured position. He might be naive, or shall we say still in "bargaining phase" or as the maverick he has been profiled in last decades, he just wants to shake the pot to judge which industries in his imperium to chop off first, etc.

In any case I suppose everybody here is familiar with Hirsch, so the "wake up" call is irrelevant by this point, what can gov. do in 5-10yrs? Nothing. The awakening can only serve as doom accelerator, as some of the mid level sheeple might get the full message and panic widly, which eventually gets to the bottom sheeple as well..

[efarmer]

Nano wrote:
No one ever made a promotion or a bonus because of promising 'less'. You must always promise 'more'. And that's what we'll do until the wheels fall off. Don't kid yourself. The only people actively pursuing and communicating peak oil issues are the peak oil authors (in order to sell their books)

<end of quote>

The new more is less, but if you will settle for less, it promises more later.
This is not to be confused with running low and saving some for later, as it involves the ingrained belief that more bounces back if you lay off it for awhile and let it grow a fresh crop of itself.

[Xenophobe]

At least the British government is talking about it. I'm sure our government is talking too, but we aren't privy to the information.

I think I would disagree.Forgetting the CIA claims of peak oil back in the 80's, more recently we have the Hirsch Report:

http://www.nyswda.org/LegPosition/HirschReport.htm

the GAO report:

http://energybulletin.net/node/28016

Certainly Roscoe Bartlett can't be blamed for lack of enthusiasm on the topic on the house floor. Peak Oil as a topic right there on his Congressional website.

http://bartlett.house.gov/issues/

It's time to do something. I have a feeling that the price of oil will wake up from it's slumber some time soon.

Well, maybe not anytime soon.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... 08659.html