[Last_Historian]

Two recent posts that some here may find of interest.

1. Everyone is Still Underestimating China on why current trends indicate that China will overtake the US in real GDP by 2015 & emerge as the "last superpower" as early as the 2020's.

2. Another View of the US Economy: Observations on Exergy, GDP & Median Incomes - might be porn for some of you people. Due to 1) the huge role of "useful work" as a factor in GDP growth, 2) useful work depending on (A) exergy & (B) technical efficiency, and 3) with (A) about to decline due to peak oil / lower EROEI coal and (B) flattering out due to diminishing returns to more investments into efficiency ==> the US economy is likely to go into decline.
Also, as argued in the post on China, the decline may be precipitous, unleashed by a stampede out of US Treasury bonds (which in its turn may be triggered by a geopolitical crisis).

My thoughts on these aren't fully formed, yet, but I will continue refining and posting them in the future.

[americandream]

Whilst you contemplate this myth of changing Emperors, consider this.

Global capital, Wall Street and London to be precise, set the stage for the new world order replete with a China open to its influence, in the recent and very costly Cold War.

Therein lies your answer to the absurdity that in China lies a worthy adversary/counterpoint to said global capital.

There is no shifting of places, merely the further perfecting of labour surplus as the world is made in the image of capital.

Two recent posts that some here may find of interest.

1. Everyone is Still Underestimating China on why current trends indicate that China will overtake the US in real GDP by 2015 & emerge as the "last superpower" as early as the 2020's.

2. Another View of the US Economy: Observations on Exergy, GDP & Median Incomes - might be porn for some of you people. Due to 1) the huge role of "useful work" as a factor in GDP growth, 2) useful work depending on (A) exergy & (B) technical efficiency, and 3) with (A) about to decline due to peak oil / lower EROEI coal and (B) flattering out due to diminishing returns to more investments into efficiency ==> the US economy is likely to go into decline.
Also, as argued in the post on China, the decline may be precipitous, unleashed by a stampede out of US Treasury bonds (which in its turn may be triggered by a geopolitical crisis).

My thoughts on these aren't fully formed, yet, but I will continue refining and posting them in the future.

[SeaGypsy]

China is infinitely more flexible than the US or other western nations when it comes to adapting to unpredictable or unpopular scenarios. Resource constraints are starting to bite unilaterlally, but in the USAin particular. The Chinese system of business is far more adaptable to corruption riddled systems internationally.
It accepts corruption is the norm and finds a way to satisfy the demands of those it needs to do business with.
This is more realistic than trying to remake the country in the western mould before doing real business with them. Corruption is both a fact and a way of life for most of the world. This fact is not about to go away and there are no new earths waiting to be discovered to alleviate the resource impossibility we are about to face. There will soon come a time when retrospective vision will show that the few short years in a few small countries where and when corruption was not quite king were a spectacularly brief reprieve from the norm.

It is about to become obvious that nomatter what system is in power, it's job is to quell ruinous descent and public rebellion. Business will revert to base, thorough corruption and the strongest will thrive. Prententious attempts at ridding the world of corruption will continue for as long as they matter in the swing of things.
The Chinese system has allowed for these inevitabilities; where the western system has pretended there is an unlimited resource availability which will ensure the welfare of all humanity for all time.

[Cloud9]

China is the goad that will pull us back into the game.

[SeaGypsy]

As long as the hound is happy to chase ... what? Remains the question.
Where will the real wage equilibrium settle? Given global slowdown response overall under emerging resource constraint, with China emerging as the 'Goad' or pace setter? If there is to emerge a post peak stability of sorts we can assume general decline overall but where will wealth concentrate and what will be left for the worker ants; and where?
Equilibrium is likely to be somewhere above where China is now and somewhere well below where the USA is today, in real wage terms.
This means the USA is very likely to experience a revolt; which will substantially undermine even a number 2 position.

[Ludi]

Wealth largely remains concentrated in the United States, not China.

"The world’s population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) grew 17.1% to 10.0 million in 2009.The world’s population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) returned to 10 million in 2009, increasing by 17.1% over 2008. HNWI financial wealth increased 18.9% from 2008 levels to $39 trillion. After losing 24.0% in 2008, Ultra-HNWIs saw wealth rebound 21.5% in 2009. Ultra-HNWIs increased their wealth by 21.5% in 2009. In terms of the total Global HNWI population remains highly concentrated with the U.S, Japan and Germany accounting for 53.5% of the world’s HNWI population, down slightly from 2008."

http://www.capgemini.com/services-and-s ... ld_wealth/

http://www.metrics2.com/blog/2006/12/05 ... _1_un.html