[Pops]

That is the wild card; how long do we have to prepare before the cost of preparing is out of reach or the necessities unavailable?

That was the last line in my first post at Peak Oil 6 years ago and I've decided its basically what my every post has been about since.

I was thinking primarily about preparing my own personal situation and I guessed at the time oil prices would be "flat or even lower" for 5-10 years before starting a gradual rise as extraction became increasingly difficult. Obviously I got that part wrong. I got the RE bubble right though, last weekend marked our sixth year in Missouri, leaving CA was a good move for us. I had the credit bubble scoped too. Not as well as Seahorse did but enough to make me afeared for my income when RE went south. I had clients like furniture retailers and car dealers who were living on HELOCs, refis and flippers and so was I. So I changed my M.O. (to MO. ) and am much more resilient, as the Trannys say.

But where are we as a society? Hirsch said we would need a crash program 20 years prior to peak to avoid a transportation fuel shortfall. Depending on whose numbers you buy, that puts us anywhere from 25 years late to "about time to start. "

China looks like they have a crash program. Since they peaked and stopped exporting (early 90'?) they've been making deals right and left locking up future production. To me, this has started to sink in as possibly as big a factor as the Export Land Model as far as advancing the peak of available crude on the market. I'd love to see someone with better analytical skills than me take a run at the numbers.

The US seems as conflicted and ineffectual as usual.
We are good at killing people so we did that in Iraq and opened the fields there to development - by the highest bidder.
We are good at exploiting our own resources so we talked about opening up more offshore drilling - then stopped it.
We are good at corporate welfare so we mandate and then subsidize food as fuel and continue oil company tax breaks to the most profitable corporations on the planet.
To be fair, as a country we have done a little in the way of promoting residential energy efficiency retrofitting and vehicle mileage but it's mighty little. Of course we gotta be careful not to talk about global warming because it will hurt profits and might bring the markets down.


So what do you think? How much time do we as a society, or civilization, have to prepare for whatever you think there is to prepare for?

How much time do you think you have to prepare? Do you have to prepare?

[hillsidedigger]

My guess is that by 3 years from now in a lot of places it will be difficult to accomplish further preparations due to the increasing level of economic decline and societal chaos and not just in the United States but in most places in the world.

[ian807]

I wish I knew the answer to this.

The credible reports out of Germany and the US miliary have us starting to see shortages by 2015 or thereabouts, depending on what the economy does between then and now. Oddly, a "good" world economy is bad news. We see oil shortages more rapidly. Economic collapse gives us more time, but less ability to adapt.

If demand doesn't significantly decrease, oil price feedback will be the killer (High oil prices make the prices of everything else go up, including the price of extracting, refining and distributing petroleum, which makes oil prices go up, which....).

Of course, rapid increases in oil prices rapidly kill the economy which decreases demand and prices, for a while. One very definite bad sign that things are ending will be wildly oscillating oil prices, and everything else prices too.

But how long? If we start at 2015, I'd give us about 10 years (more or less) before petroleum becomes prohibitively expensive for transportation use, new imported products become rare and difficult to find and horses and bicycles start making a big comeback. It's not that there won't be oil to pump and refine. It's just that we won't be able to profitably maintain the infrastructure to support it as a major fuel source anymore. I think money will kill off the oil industry before shortages do.

[Newfie]

So what do you think? How much time do we as a society, or civilization, have to prepare for whatever you think there is to prepare for?

How much time do you think you have to prepare? Do you have to prepare?

Pops,
I don't have the data let alone the analytic skills to sort this mess out. I don't know who would and if they did exist would I be able to find them or recognize their accuracy. "Calling Casandra, will Casandra please ring her seat attendant's light."

As to what I think my best guess is that we are going to be in for a bumpy ride, we are already off the smooth pavement. I think the economy will bump up and down for the next few (say 5) years with a gradual downturn. This would bring us into the heat of the next presidential election after this one. We are likely to see some real crack pot promoting God knows what. That would be a time ripe for massive social restructuring be it government control, riot, revolution, whatever. It is possible that they could loose the economy in the meantime and we could slip into all hell breaks loose, but my bet is on the resilience of the system.

There are many things that could accelerate this such as natural events or an fundamentalist revolution in Saudi Arabia. But those are things you can not plan for.

You CAN be somewhat prepared for them though. Although we are not entirely prepared we are in far better shape than a year ago and in another year we will be in better shape yet.

In short..........the time to prepare is now.

[patience]

I'm with Newfie on this. As I see it, the energy problem will likely be perceived as an economic problem, that is, our ability to AFFORD to purchase energy will be foremost at first. So, the poorest will feel the pinch first, and with the world economy going down, it is a race to the bottom. The sources I've read seem to think that Europe and the UK will have the first sovereign defaults, followed by maybe Japan and the US. If that is true, then the US has a bit of time, but not a lot. I put the timeframe as being 2 to 5 years out for major economic trouble in the US, following Marc Faber on this.

When the STHF, it doesn't get evenly distributed, as we see in the US economy at the moment. So, for any given individual, it depends on your situation. For relatively poor people, like we old folks and others with limited earning potential, we could be hit pretty hard within a year or two, without some black swan event.

Since life doesn't follow Hollywood style drama, I don't expect the demise of the US to happen quickly, but more likely to resemble the fall of Rome over many years. Thus I don't see a particular date is to be of much real value, except as a marker on the road down.

As to time for prepping, it will vary with the situation of the individual and their assets and abilities. J6P has run out of time, IMHO, due mostly to his mindset, but also the housing market which negates most of his chances to get into a better situation, and due to his more limited earning potential now. Ideally, he should have sold out when Pops did, and made the move to a super-conservative lifestyle. I think that was about the last of his chances to get out of the rat race.

I see where we are now as early in the transition period. Each of us will have to cope with it from here to the best of our ability, and some, of course, will make a better shot at it than others. The differences between individuals will depend to a great degree on how well they can divine THEIR future and the choices they make to cope with it. Small choices have a big effect on what choices you have later.

[Pops]

Good stuff.

The Peak Date Debate has lost all but a small significance for me as well, mostly just to see whose guess was the closest. Anyone who has followed the debate for very long surely knows that putting any real faith in a particular peak date is unrealistic, there are just too many moving parts and too much human nature involved. I mean just like economists, innumerable peakoligists surely have an even larger innumerable number of equations to predict what will happen tomorrow - and of course they'll develop another innumerable number of equations tomorrow to predict what happened today!

Still, unless your plan is to let THEM.Inc take care of it with your best intreats in mind, you must have an idea when and what you should do. It surprised me how long it took for us to be successful at our change - and we made ours voluntarily is as good a situation as I could want. Part of our "plan" was to reduce our income and need for a large income and we were very successful - too successful for a couple of years! Our short term outlook is finally better because we are more diversified, my graphics clients are less susceptible to recessions, we are better at raising calves and we've completed a large part of the modifications to the new place. And of course we just need a lot less to get by - I probably spend nearly the amount of time looking for news and tapping smoke signals at this site as I do earning money.


But I'm interested too in hearing from people planning to do things differently, maybe it's talking your employer into a telecommute program for people who live out in the boonies, maybe moving closer to work or moving your business closer to homes or maybe lobbying the city council to change the zoning regs to encourage more dense multi-use development. Maybe you are concentrating on making your house super efficient or your life fun and interesting without FF inputs.

If you are reading here you probably have some plan and timeframe in mind, lets hear it!

[IslandCrow]

"Calling Casandra, will Casandra please ring her seat attendant's light."

Did you mean this Casandra: http://www.metacafe.com/watch/1014783/hot_oily_strip_peak_oil_explained/ ?

I believe I have done most of the 'easy fruit' of preparation for where I am . This has taken me 5 years. This property seems to be great for a time of transition, but is not suitable for life without oil/electricity (long-term, shortish powercuts are OK to deal with).

The question at the back of my mind is should I find a place that I could develop for life after oil, not just life after Peak Oil? However, I think I will stay here for the next few years so (family situation dictating that a move at this time is a very bad idea).

So I will keep adding to the preps, but I expect less and less return on the investments I make, and I will be happy for at least another 5 years to prep in.

[Ludi]

We're pretty well set up to survive post peak, but not to thrive, not to do well. I still don't have the food growing worked out for this difficult climate. Things have been very tough the past few years. Much failure. My current plan if I can't get any better at growing food is for us to become meatatarians - there are tons of deer and varmints around, and I keep encouraging my husband to buy more ammo. We're going to try to get at least one deer this Fall. We haven't worked out how to store the meat yet, but when TSHTF we'll probably be eating more varmints than deer so storage won't be an issue - we'll use the "Pease Porridge" method (pot of food on the stove which gets reheated periodically to stop decay.)

There's a lot more I want to do to the house and yard but I'm slower than molasses in January and we can't hire stuff done. I just keep plugging along.....

[vtsnowedin]

We're pretty well set up to survive post peak, but not to thrive, not to do well. I still don't have the food growing worked out for this difficult climate. Things have been very tough the past few years. Much failure. My current plan if I can't get any better at growing food is for us to become meatatarians - there are tons of deer and varmints around, and I keep encouraging my husband to buy more ammo. We're going to try to get at least one deer this Fall. We haven't worked out how to store the meat yet, but when TSHTF we'll probably be eating more varmints than deer so storage won't be an issue - we'll use the "Pease Porridge" method (pot of food on the stove which gets reheated periodically to stop decay.)

There's a lot more I want to do to the house and yard but I'm slower than molasses in January and we can't hire stuff done. I just keep plugging along.....

Storing venison? Not much beats a fair sized chest freezer in the coldest corner of the basement. You can pressure can it of course if you want to be independent of the grid and post peak we will probably build a smoke house and relearn how to salt and smoke cure everything from pork to moose.

[Ludi]

We don't have a basement or any cold corners, and if we're talking about TSHTF, there won't be any electricity to run a freezer.

[patience]

For ourselves, at age 64, we don't have a lot of time to get our act together, due to age, whatever happens in the ROW. Thankfully, we have been working at this for a while, and have our one acre homestead in pretty good shape now. We just got our house cistern rehabbed and functional now, in time to catch about 1/2" of rain we got Saturday. Other things are up and going now: 4 terraced gardens, chickens, orchard, berries, herbs, and many perennials. Wood stove and solar PV are the next priorities now.

Part of our plan will have to be in cooperative efforts with our kids as we get older, so we hope to progress in that direction. Our small place can maybe produce 70% of our food, but meat, firewood, and other things must come from elsewhere. DD and SIL own 35 acres that is mostly forest, so that is a plus.

We ran a machine/repair shop for several years at home, but just closed it this month. Not a lot of business, and my arthritic joints won't take the heavy work much longer. I could re-open it if needed for income, but I need the time now to do our own prep work. I see the need to have our stuff all up and going ASAP. I believe we should be running the homestead activities at full throttle by next Spring, based on what I see around us. I wouldn't want to crowd it much farther than that. If/when we have another debacle like when Lehman went down, I don't think TPTB can save the financial system without something like a long, deep depression, or a currency collapse.

For meat preservation, we have done a lot of salt/sugar/smoke curing of pork for half our lives, but had gotten out of it. Last week we got a lard kettle, and already had a stock of salt, a lard press, and what it takes to butcher large animals, including a summer kitchen with stainless counters, LP stove and lots of canning stuff. Smoking, salting, drying, and larding cooked meat in a crock will keep it for quite a while without refrigeration or freezing. Canning is a lot more work, but keeps meat a very long time. I wanted those capabilities ready to go now, and get some more practice at it immediately.

Other preppers are thinking this way. There is currently a "challenge" going on another forum for those who choose to participate: "Can you live through the winter without spending any money?" They made exceptions for necessary meds, heating and transport fuel, and direly needed repairs, like a furnace replacement. Whatever the rules, they see the need for being prepared now.

[Expatriot]

My opinion is that we are teetering on a descending wire. If all goes perfectly, we may be able to continue to do so for a few years.

But I don't think this game is dependent on public understanding of oil.

I think TPTB will force war well before a presidential baboon is forced to admit to the American Public that the world is running out of oil, there's nothing we can do about it, and the next 20 years are going to be a hellacious adjustment.

American anger at the American Way of Life (AWOL) going down the toilet is the perfect springboard for war to seize the dwindling resources of the world. It will be capitalized on.

Major system upset within 6 months - 25%
Major system upset within 12 months - 50%
Major system upset within 24 months - 90%
Major system upset within 36 months - 95%
Major system upset within 60 months - 99%.

Many have taken to calling the thing a "black swan" event. That doesn't capture it. It won't be a black swan event - it'll be completely expected to me when it comes, whatever the thing is . . . complete banking collapse, all-out war, another false flag attack on U.S. soil, whatever.

Without greedy human intervention, I'd say PO would be apparent to all within 3 years.

But think of that moment. The collective moment when everybody realizes, almost in unison, that energy is depleting and the party is over. It's the RI club fire times 6 billion.

[patience]

I think the first wild card is govt. reactions to economic troubles. Policies that attempt to foster BAU won't work, but have been attempted anyway. Since the general public is mostly ignorant of the facts of PO, the govt. uses that fact to sell whatever they choose to placate the masses. I don't see much danger of the public awakening to the facts of PO in the near future, at least not by that name. The recent unrest in Greece is never reported in terms of PO, but with regard to govt. policies, budgets, jobs, and all the rest of the socioeconomic mess. TANSTAAFL is not going to get air play on the major media.

The Great and Wonderful Wizard of Oz will attempt to confuse and defuse the social problems with whatever means they can. Of course it is all a fraud, but very few will see through that, and be ridiculed if they allude to the truth. We have seen that already. Who knows what they will do next? Doesn't matter much to the universe of reality, but their actions can be taken to gauge the depth of their desperation to hold onto power. I think that is the real doom-o-meter here.

[Ludi]

The Great and Wonderful Wizard of Oz will attempt to confuse and defuse the social problems with whatever means they can. Of course it is all a fraud, but very few will see through that, and be ridiculed if they allude to the truth. We have seen that already. Who knows what they will do next? Doesn't matter much to the universe of reality, but their actions can be taken to gauge the depth of their desperation to hold onto power. I think that is the real doom-o-meter here.

We need to keep in mind that what they do isn't necessarily because they are power-mad or greedy (though they may be both) but they do not want to be perceived as failures, and the ultimate failure of a politician is to present to his constituents a future which is less than wonderful. No politician who wants to keep his career can speak the truth and tell folks things are going to get tougher. The only way a politician can get away with it is in time of war (which we will win!) or time of temporary economic set-back (which we will win!!). To tell folks that times are going to get tough and after that even tougher is probably virtually impossible for almost any politician. There's maybe one or two who seem to be able to get away with it (like Roscoe Bartlett), but I suspect it might be because their constituents are not all that aware of what they say and just re-elect them out of habit.

So yes, the actions our "representatives" take will almost certainly not help and might hurt a great deal, and seem stupid and short-sighted and practically evil, but we have to keep in mind these folks are politicians first and foremost, and will always act like politicians. If the populace wants a different response, we have to lead by example, which probably ain't gonna happen, because, face it, most people WANT to believe the future will be wonderful, that everything will just get better from here.

[Ayoob]

Hey Pops

Good topic.

I think this discussion is proceeding along the wrong track. It kind of starts with the assumption that "we" are going to do something, or "they" are going to do something. As a society or a culture or something like that.

IMO, we're not. We're going to crash our culture/country into the dirt and have nothing.

The very wealthy are looting like crazy, the little guy at the bottom is stupidly paying off debt instead of stocking up on important equipment and supplies.

I don't believe our government is here to serve MY interests whatsoever. It's here to suck the marrow out of my bones and give it to someone else who is more deserving. There is no corporation that is planning on selling something valuable to a bunch of broke stiffs. What's left? I suppose the churches and social organizations are left, but I doubt much concrete help is coming our way from the churches and the Rotary.

I think we're all on our own. Your future is what you make of it. Want to stay low to the ground, mobile, and use your wits? You got it. Want to grind it out on a piece of ground? You got it. Want to engage in easy motoring and collect your pension? Mmmm, not so much.

I would suggest going outside and looking around at the world you can see. What is it you want to have, and can you see the source of it from where you are? If not, what does the supply line look like and who's going to get it for you?

When I go home and look around, I can literally see my fresh drinking water supply. I can see the food I need. I can see everything I need to make a living for myself. Within a five mile walk, I can see everything I would need to live a lifetime of abundance. Five years ago in LA, no fucking way.

There is no social security, there are no meds, there is no gas, there are no cars, there are no police, there are no stores, there is no electricity, you cannot buy any more plastic or metal anything. Now what? What do you do then? You die young.

[gollum]

Until I start to some evidence of a real crash I think paying off debt is a good thing. I've seen too many "oh my god the crash is coming tomorrow" to believe it, yes things are gonna crash in due time, and in that time it's a good goal to be debt free.

[americandream]

As long as there is a belief in the capitalist cyclical model of growth, whether it be exhuberant bubbles or prudent resourcing, the final demise of our way of life has still some time to run. ONLy when it finally sinks into the heads of the world's financiers and larger corporations that they can no longer sustain the model of wealth creation they so rely on is when an individual needs to be on the lookout for dislocation. I'ld give it at least another 3 decades, 5 maximum.

That is the wild card; how long do we have to prepare before the cost of preparing is out of reach or the necessities unavailable?

That was the last line in my first post at Peak Oil 6 years ago and I've decided its basically what my every post has been about since.

I was thinking primarily about preparing my own personal situation and I guessed at the time oil prices would be "flat or even lower" for 5-10 years before starting a gradual rise as extraction became increasingly difficult. Obviously I got that part wrong. I got the RE bubble right though, last weekend marked our sixth year in Missouri, leaving CA was a good move for us. I had the credit bubble scoped too. Not as well as Seahorse did but enough to make me afeared for my income when RE went south. I had clients like furniture retailers and car dealers who were living on HELOCs, refis and flippers and so was I. So I changed my M.O. (to MO. ) and am much more resilient, as the Trannys say.

But where are we as a society? Hirsch said we would need a crash program 20 years prior to peak to avoid a transportation fuel shortfall. Depending on whose numbers you buy, that puts us anywhere from 25 years late to "about time to start. "

China looks like they have a crash program. Since they peaked and stopped exporting (early 90'?) they've been making deals right and left locking up future production. To me, this has started to sink in as possibly as big a factor as the Export Land Model as far as advancing the peak of available crude on the market. I'd love to see someone with better analytical skills than me take a run at the numbers.

The US seems as conflicted and ineffectual as usual.
We are good at killing people so we did that in Iraq and opened the fields there to development - by the highest bidder.
We are good at exploiting our own resources so we talked about opening up more offshore drilling - then stopped it.
We are good at corporate welfare so we mandate and then subsidize food as fuel and continue oil company tax breaks to the most profitable corporations on the planet.
To be fair, as a country we have done a little in the way of promoting residential energy efficiency retrofitting and vehicle mileage but it's mighty little. Of course we gotta be careful not to talk about global warming because it will hurt profits and might bring the markets down.


So what do you think? How much time do we as a society, or civilization, have to prepare for whatever you think there is to prepare for?

How much time do you think you have to prepare? Do you have to prepare?

[Fredrik]

I believe I have done most of the 'easy fruit' of preparation for where I am . This has taken me 5 years. This property seems to be great for a time of transition, but is not suitable for life without oil/electricity (long-term, shortish powercuts are OK to deal with).

Just out of curiosity, as we're living in the same country, have you decided to reside in the countryside, small town, or large town / "city"?

I'm staying in the capital region for numerous personal reasons (a depression-resistant job, public transit, services, wife's extended family). But there's also the historical fact, pointed out by John Michael Greer, that no society in decline has seen starving city people leaving their urban homes to pillage a prosperous countryside. I believe that political power will remain in the capital (at least in our politically and economically centralized country) and that it will ensure the survival of its closest constituents for as long as possible.

I think TPTB will force war well before a presidential baboon is forced to admit to the American Public that the world is running out of oil, there's nothing we can do about it, and the next 20 years are going to be a hellacious adjustment.

American anger at the American Way of Life (AWOL) going down the toilet is the perfect springboard for war to seize the dwindling resources of the world. It will be capitalized on.

Many say that PO will probably result in major resource war, but I'm not so sure about it. What country still has enough oil to make a war and subsequent occupation profitable? After Iraq, there aren't that much potential candidates. You'd have to not just invade the country, but occupy it permanently, and most importantly, pacify its population to secure continuous oil production. Not going to happen in the Middle East or in Africa.

As for war as a means to channel people's anger outwards, that's a strategy, but hardly one that's enough to justify a doomed-to-fail military venture in a faraway country. Even most conservatives realize that the Iraq war was a failure and that the purported reasons for invasion - WMD's, spreading democracy - were fake. I don't know what kind of justification would be needed for a similar operation today (you'd have to convince not just hawkish conservatives, but many moderate conservatives and liberals). A domestic "terror attack" or some other government-aided catastrophe, justifying rationing and martial law would be more likely IMHO.

[Pops]

A few of us have made pretty serious changes - in my case owning a place in the country was really a lifelong goal, the timing of the RE bubble (and PO worries) was luck (good and bad) that I've folded into my plans, I think that's how it is for many of us.

About resource wars and economic collapse; we know they are going to happen and not in some distant future, we've been involved in 2 wars for 10 years and each has oil as a primary cause - though I don't expect those in the future to be quite as benign on the homefront. And as far as 10 million formerly employed, ex-homeowners are concerned, the economy has collapsed, not to mention the folks who lost 25 or 50% of their retirement savings...

When I say prepare in the personal sense, I'm not talking about taking your bayonet and hiding in the woods eating bugs, joining a commune, or even building a pedal-car, I'm talking about moving closer to work, weatherstripping the doors, lowering your overhead, writing your congressman, joining a TT or other aware group.

[IslandCrow]

Just out of curiosity, as we're living in the same country, have you decided to reside in the countryside, small town, or large town / "city"?

In terms of travel time I live in the largest 'city' in the country. In actual fact I am in a very small community that had less than 1000 year-round residents (on all islands) before the recent forced community mergers. The community has a long history (for Finland) of being populated, but at times I know they were dirt poor, although it was a significant community as it was on the trade routes (and the location of at least one naval battle).

Regarding cities. Yes there is a lot of political power goes to the cities! At one time people living in the island communities were not allowed to own trading ships, only the rich in the old capital were allowed that right! Look back to WWII and the food situation in Helsingfors, where people if they could got out into the countryside to get/grow more food. People did not starve, but the population in the countryside had more food. There are pros and cons on both sides. For me one of the fears that I have, is that as I live in a community that is de-populating there might be a local crash in services etc and I am left stranded in a basically 'dead' community.