Oil analyst Charles Maxwell is making news recently with his "new" forecast for "Peak Oil" around the year 2017. Of course, this is the same Robert Maxwell who (as reported by Robert Hirsch) predicted in the spring of 2008 that gasoline prices were headed right on up to $12 to $15 a gallon. In other words, Mr. Maxwell (along with Mr. Hirsch) know how to jump on a bandwagon.
The interesting thing about Maxwell's pronouncement is not that it is being picked up and blared out by all the doomers ("See! We told you so!), but rather that it is being used as confirmation of previous bias by cautious and respected energy bloggers such as Robert Rapier.
Here is Robert Rapier discussing his reaction to Maxwell's prediction:Robert Rapier wrote:While there are some differences in the details, what Maxwell articulated approximates my own views.
I view a global oil production peak within the decade as a near-certainty.
I think there is a small probability that the peak has already occurred, but we won’t know that until several years after the fact.
I don’t believe that there is anything in the technology pipeline that can prevent a growing gap between supply and today’s demand.
I believe that gap will be closed by price-induced rationing, which will be very hard on businesses and individuals.
Higher prices will result in a very difficult transition period in which we are forced to use less because we simply don’t have the money to use the oil that we have historically used. This will be a period of great economic difficulty, lasting for years. At the same time that the economy is in great difficulty, oil companies will continue to reap big profits, causing an enormous amount of resentment and calls for higher taxation and greater regulation of the oil industry.
However, I also believe that humans are very resilient, and that we will eventually come through this. This is why I do not characterize myself as a ‘doomer.’ We do use a lot more energy than we absolutely have to use. I would bet that most people – if they really had to – could cut their fuel consumption by 50%. It wouldn’t necessarily be convenient or easy, but it could be done.
Toward the end of his piece, Rapier begins to clearly diverge from the simplistic doomer view of Peak Oil -- when he says that Americans (and presumably others in the advanced world) could cut their fuel consumption by 50%.
But one must remember that Peak Oil predictions have been flying through the memeways ever since oil was used as an economic commodity. And predictions of peak oil tend to ebb and flow with the times -- and have always ultimately failed.
The current Peak Oil fad owes more to the spectacular rise of demand from China and India than from any problems on the supply side. What Peak Oilers must eventually learn, is how fickle demand can be. They will soon learn.
Al Fin takes shots at the doomers too. I wonder if he logs on here ever. Probably not. Seems more like an Oil Drum guy.
