[Graeme]

Peak of the Devil

It has the greatest title of any peak oil publication I’ve yet come across – but does Peak of the Devil live up to the promise?

The 232-page book will be published by Satya House Publications in October 2010, retailing at $14.95. Chip Haynes, longtime online peak oil writer, has taken the unusual step of creating a beginner’s guide, broken down into 101 chapters of between 400 and 500 words. With at least one cheesy gag in each chapter.

Haynes succinctly states a couple of peak oil points that I’ve been struggling to articulate for a long time: the best place to be when oil supplies get tight is where you are living right now, and to look to the past for clues of what to expect in the future. Peak oil “will not be, as some have predicted, a return to the Dark Ages,” he writes, suggesting we should work with our neighbours rather than think about moving to the countryside or even attempting to live, survivalist-style, in the woods – albeit with hints about those out in the ‘burbs being advised to move closer to town. So it’s a case of make friends and prepare for a life of low energy and hard physical work. Haynes observes that probably the safest assumptions we can make about a future of diminishing oil availability come from looking back to the past. As he calls it: “. . . the end of the 21st century is going to look a lot like the end of the 19th, but with better healthcare and stronger child labor laws, if we are lucky.”

peakgeneration

[Ludi]

"the end of the 21st century is going to look a lot like the end of the 19th, but with better healthcare and stronger child labor laws, if we are lucky."


Wow, that's pretty darn optimistic! At the end of the 19th century there were still large chunks of the Earth's resources which had not been exploited, and population was less than 2 billion.

How can anyone believe we will have the resources to provide a 19th century (European? American? African?) existence to the world's people when we will have a population of (likely?) over 8 billion?

Unless this optimistic scenario includes some horrific die-off of most of the human population.

[Graeme]

The book is about peak oil - that's why I posted the review. The future could be far better or far worse than he envisages. I'm hoping for the best possible outcome. . .

[Ludi]

The author seems pretty darn optimistic. I wish I could be so optimistic.

[efarmer]

"Hello efarmer this is Onstar. I see your donkey has been involved in a crash. Are you injured or do you need immediate assistance?"

"No I'm fine, but my backpack split open and there are spuds all over the highway. I've got to go now Onstar, this Amish guy is pulling up and I don't want him to see me talking into an unconscious donkey's butt."

[Revi]

This is an excellent book to introduce others to what's going on with peak oil. The other books were far more reliant on graphs and doomer scenarios. Chip lays the truth out for people, but in a way that they can hear.

People can't hear strident messages. This book delivers the same message, but in a way that is very entertaining and readable. I would reccommend this book as a perfect peak oil primer.

Here's the newsblog's take on it:

http://peakoil.com/generalideas/new-pea ... the-devil/

I got it and read it in an afternoon.

[vision-master]

Yeah, Chip is on taht other 4um, he seems real level headed - something many around here could learn & use.

[Revi]

Chip is on The Oil Age a lot. It does seem to be a fairly level headed forum.

I like both forums.

This book is getting some exposure.

I hope more people get it and get the word out.

[sparky]

.
Keep in mind that the early 20th century was a blood soaked time
two world wars , civil wars everywhere Gulags and Nazi camps

It didn't even stop the population growth

Now we are on track for a decrease of one billion per decade

There is a number of possible futures , post peak .
Some will be the triumph of individuals survival gone Darwinian
Some will be quite well run Gulags
most will shrivel to village size , some federated or giving duty to some protector

[Revi]

I think you may be right, but this book is for the majority of people who don't really see a dystopian future yet. They think a lot of what we are saying is nonsense. Chip does a really good job of telling people what peak oil is and why they should care about it.

[Revi]

This book is a great one to give to people who are not convinced that peak oil is real. People can't hear shrill messages. They are much more likely to hear you when you pull them to the side and tell them that the ship is sinking than if you yell it out on the deck. They will just think you're a nutcase and dismiss you. This book is like pulling them aside and telling them quietly. Much better approach.

[Revi]

Maybe you don't believe that the US is down to less than 10% of it's original endowment of oil. Maybe you don't believe that peak oil is a real problem. Maybe you think that there will be solutions coming along to the liquid fuel problem, and that we shouldn't worry about it, and certainly don't want to alarm people.

You may be right.

But, what if you're wrong?

[Revi]

Chip's book isn't inaccurate. Have you read it?

Name a couple of chapters that you think are inaccurate.

[Revi]

Here's a part about Hubbert's Peak that you can dispute.

"Now, how about we kick it up a notch? What about the whole world? Could Hubbert’s Curve, initially devised to track the production of a single oil well, be used to figure the oil production of an entire planet? Absolutely. Well, sort of. That is to say it could, if we had all the accurate, unfiltered data for every oil field in the world. But we do not. Using what data can be obtained, and allowing for, um, discrepancies (a very polite, non-litigious word for lies), a great many people have tried for years to predict when the world will reach peak oil, obviously with mixed results. That would explain the vagaries when it comes to the questions of “When will it happen?” and/or “When did it happen?” and the occasional “Hey, what just happened?” As it turns out, we can predict all we want, but we will only know after the fact. However, don’t blame Hubbert. He did the best he could."

From Peak of the Devil by Chip Hayes

[Revi]

If it's a standard propaganda piece it isn't reaching the masses. This, like the book by Heinberg and the one by John Howe was printed by a small publisher and hasn't reached the mainstream yet. I would say that the line you are spouting is more like the standard propaganda. Did you read the wikileaks about how the Saudis may be overstating their reserves by 40%? And they may not be able to get over 12 million barrels per day? Whatever your criticism is of Chip's book the reality is that we have hit peak oil and the consequences are here already. You can yell la la la all you want and stick your fingers in your ears, but the hard truth is that we are already seeing what happens when oil peaks. Doing something about it is not a bad idea. Chip's book gets people to think about it. What's the matter with that?

[vision-master]

Shorty - peak oil debunked. lsol

[vision-master]

Shorty, yer like an drinking alcoholic hanging around a AA 4um.

[Revi]

You set up the challenge, Xeno or Shorty or whatever you want to call yourself. I have known about peak oil since the 1990's, and it seems to be occurring on schedule. You have some kind of need to debunk Peak Oil. That's fun for you, I guess. Remember John Denver and his website? Maybe that would be a good place to preach to the converted.

Meanwhile I thought Chip's book was a good one.

Maybe I'm just deluded. I should be buying a Hummer and partying like it's 1999.

[Revi]

Meanwhile I thought Chip's book was a good one.

And yet you can't even answer the most basic question about it, now can you? How many times does it have to be wrong before you change your mind Revi? Just once? Most of it? ALL of it?

Chip tells a good story. But the answer to 2+2 isn't 5, no matter how badly you want to BELIEVE it Revi, and peak oil isn't a STORY, it's facts and geoscience and physics, and if you don't understand even the basics, it might be best that you not PRETEND.

They just announced that the Saudis overstated their oil reserves by 40%. That's an admission of peak oil. They will never get to their stated goal of 12.5 million barrels per day. We just lost the world's swing producer. They can't bump up production to cover any shortfall. We are just one crisis away from a big problem now.

Debunk that.

[Chip Haynes]

Revi- Thank you for sticking up for me here as you have. That means a lot to me, but I think you're boxing with a ghost. Save your energy. If worse comes to worse, I'll write a nice letter to the Library of Congress and tell them to reclassify my little oil book as fiction. I've really been itching to break into the fiction market anyway.