[Pops]

We have several threads cataloging the many possible alternatives to carbon energy so I thought I'd start a thread outlining the obstacles to an easy transition.

Zero Hedge describes the run-up in price of rare earth minerals of up to 600% after the Chinese tantrum over fishermen:

Ever heard of the oxides of Lanthanum, Cerium, Neodymium, Praseodymium and/or Samarium? With price surges between 250% and 600% in one quarter, you may wish you have. The recent pissing contest between Japan and China, which culminated with a temporary export ban in rare earth metals such as those named above, translated in ridiculous price jumps in some compounds most have never even heard of, let alone traded, yet which would have made not only the year, but the decade for hedge funds invested in them. And with China producing more than 90% of the world's supply of rare earth minerals, coupled with increasing probability of escalating global (and regional) trade wars, it is distinctly possible that the gains recorded recently in gold will be dwarfed by the imminent Samarium Oxide bubble, which 3 months ago was trading at $4/kg and is now over $30.

ZH

If you have a quick argument why something isn't a roadblock, ie; "I have commercially viable amounts of rare earths in my back yard" then post it. Better maybe to link to a new (or old) thread to debate specifics...

[smiley]

I've started my career working on rare earths. Back then most of the rare earths we used came from other sources such as Russia, the US and Scandinavia.

Somewhere in the nineties the Chinese started agressively pricing their rare earths and basically drove the other suppliers out of business. Also they started a large development program on developing new applications for the rare earths, and producing them under heavy subsidies. This lead for instance to the development of lanthanum magnets, which are now widely used, in favor of the hexaferrites which were used before.

I think the current hegemony of China in the rare earth business is an artificial one. There are other deposits available and there are alternatives. But with China's leverage on the market it is impossible to market them without getting burned. But if China were to deplete the market of rare earths for a prolonged period then these sources would come back online.

Also I foresee the market for rare earths to become smaller. The two single most rare earth consuming applications are CRT televisions and discharge lighting. The first is being gradually replaced by LCD and LED, which do use rare earth phosphors but a lot less. The same applies to discharge lighting which is going to be replaced by LED's, which pro-lumen use less rare earths.

In the end you also have to wonder who is driving the current rare earth discussion. Most often you will find these are the ultra conservative thinktanks and such. I am not saying they are entirely wrong, the current grip of China on the market of these elements and others, is certainly not healthy from a global stability perspective. But when push comes to shove there are plenty other sources available for development, and we don't even have to invade nasty countries to get them (see link)

http://www.cs-re.org.cn/rebbs/attachments/month_1004/20100402_af95c060400664ed4f83k98Dvuisvhbh.gif.

I would therefore not call it a roadblock.

[Pops]

Thanks Smiley

[Plantagenet]

Until a few years, much of the world's supply of rare earth minerals came from a mine east of San Diego

Mountain Pass Mine, USA

The US mine was closed after the Chinese undercut them on price, but they currently plan to re-open in 2011, if they can get their permits approved through the US regulatory morass and the Chinese don't drop their prices and drive them off the market again.