[Sixstrings]

Late yesterday, Gallup came out with new numbers on the generic ballot question—which party’s candidates would you vote for in the election for House of Representatives? Among registered voters Gallup shows Republicans ahead by 46%-42%, about as good a score as Republicans have ever had (and about as bad a score as Democrats have ever had) since Gallup started asking the question in 1942.
However, Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its “high turnout model” Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its “low turnout model” Republicans lead 56%-38%.

These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like ’94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats.

Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/gallups-astonishing-numbers-and-the-lake-superior-congressional-districts-104321583.html

I'd seen some predictions of the Senate going Republican, but this is the first thing I've seen saying the House will too.

Starting to look like the only people who plan to vote are the Obama-hating Tea Party crowd, with disappointed Democrats and Independents staying home and finding something better to do.

[Serial_Worrier]

The only poll that matters is Nov 2, 2010. I don't trust any of these polls. Been burned too many times!

[Ludi]

with disappointed Democrats and Independents staying home and finding something better to do.

Nothing better to do than let the GOP run the country, I guess. No doubt they'll do a better job!

Independents and Democrats will get what they deserve, I reckon.

Go Tea Party!

[PrestonSturges]

OK, after the GOP wins, do they go straight for the "Night of the Long Knives" where they dump the Tea Party?

What happens when people in the rest of the country realize their representatives only take orders from Jim DeMint? What happens when the Tea Party starts telling Jim DeMint to go to hell?

This is the "billionaires' coup,' and it just might end America. They have no interest whatsoever in keeping the country or the population alive. Why would anyone bother to develop alternate energy, when they can profit by hyperinflating gas to $5,000 a gallon, converting their profits to Euros every few milliseconds. The middle class can stripped of everything in a couple weeks.

[Lore]

OK, after the GOP wins, do they go straight for the "Night of the Long Knives" where they dump the Tea Party?

What happens when people in the rest of the country realize their representatives only take orders from Jim DeMint? What happens when the Tea Party starts telling Jim DeMint to go to hell?

This is the "billionaires' coup,' and it just might end America. They have no interest whatsoever in keeping the country or the population alive. Why would anyone bother to develop alternate energy, when they can profit by hyperinflating gas to $5,000 a gallon, converting their profits to Euros every few milliseconds. The middle class can stripped of everything in a couple weeks.

So true, nothing like being an ignorant dupe. The Tea Partiers are going to get the wedgy of their lives.

[Plantagenet]

Just because Obama's economic policies have completely failed to deliver on his 2008 pledges to cut the deficit, create an energy policy, turn the economy around and to create jobs, have a recovery summer, etc. etc. .....surely that is no reason to vote in the Republicans.

Its like people are blaming Obama just because everything he promised turned out to be a lie. And the "hope" and "change" and "obama is a new kind of politician stuff"....that was all a lie too.

Obama is a POLITICIAN for crissakes. Lying is what he does.

[Expatriot]

Starting to look like the only people who plan to vote are the Obama-hating Tea Party crowd, with disappointed Democrats and Independents staying home and finding something better to do.

I disagree.

35% of the people will only vote for one of the pretend parties.
35% of the people will only vote for the other of the pretend parties.

The "get out the vote" is not what decides elections.

What decides elections are the 30% who are not committed to either party.

[efarmer]

The Tea Party is a small segment as a face lift for a group of the same old Republican hamburger wanting to be served on some fresh buns and regain corporate market share. If they gain majorities and fail it's going to be the fault of the Tea Party radicals, if they don't, it will be the fault of the Democrats.
This is a group of people who abandoned their principles and rely on fear, dividing and polarizing their own nation, and promising things to people of strong faith and principle to obtain backing and then ditch them when they get into the corporate crony catbird seats.

These folks are not conservative, they don't have a plan of their own, and they are convinced that if you strip away enough rules and financial hurdles, corporations with subsidies create natural resources.

I feel sorry for the Tea Party folks who hitched their wagon to a meteorite instead of a star.
Perhaps they will regroup and become a conservative and independent force for their nation.

[Ludi]

So true, nothing like being an ignorant dupe. The Tea Partiers are going to get the wedgy of their lives.

But the Tea Party WANT to be serfs of the wealthy! That's why they want regressive taxation, to siphon more money upward so we can return to the feudalism they crave. Why do you think they defend the wealthy so strenuously? It's the old feudal spirit!

Go Tea Party!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R91L7LhH-wg

[Plantagenet]

But the Tea Party WANT to be serfs of the wealthy! That's why they want regressive taxation, to siphon more money upward so we can return to the feudalism they crave. Why do you think they defend the wealthy so strenuously?

And, by your logic, the democrats want to raise taxes in a recession so we can plunge back into economic depression.

After all, the democrats economic policies have worked so great that we are only at 17% total unemployment now, and losing more ground every month while creating the largest deficits in history!!!! Who wouldn't want millions more jobs to disappear, just as long as we've got Obama and the democrats wasting trillions of dollars and boasting about the "green shoots" just over the hill, and the "recovery summer" when everything started getting worse again, and then blaming it all on George Bush when their economic policies don't work again.

Sheesh. Time to get the grown-ups back in there again.

[Sixstrings]

The "get out the vote" is not what decides elections.

What decides elections are the 30% who are not committed to either party.

You're right. But the independents who voted Obama are likely disillusioned and will be sitting this one out with disappointed liberals. The independents who do show up to vote will be voting Republican. I think it's very doubtful independents will vote Dem.

As for me, I'll be voting for an Independent for Senate. And for the House I'll go ahead and vote Dem -- but that won't help them, the Republican incumbent is safe in my district.

[PrestonSturges]

Their leaders want to be the next crop of John Ensigns, Mark Sanfords, David Vitters. They can put that prop Bibles in the back of the closet and rent rooms from the National Prayer Breakfast people who run that cozy little brothel down on K Street where they can snort pharmaceutical grade cocaine off the butts of $500 an hour hookers. No more sweaty fumbling with choir boys that smell like livestock.

[Expatriot]

As for me, I'll be voting for an Independent for Senate. And for the House I'll go ahead and vote Dem -- but that won't help them, the Republican incumbent is safe in my district.

You're fairly far along the path the seeing the world for what it is.

The next step for you is to lose the Democrat card.

When you see that Democrat=Republican and "two party system" is code for "one party representing corporate interests," then you'll be at the next level.

The patriotic thing to do is NOT vote.

[Pops]

Here is a cool poll compilation site - well it used to be a site now Arianna bought it but it's still a compendium.

I'm gonna say the dems hang on and keep control of both houses - against all odds. It will be explained in the history books that the old crazy white people in their medicaid wheelchairs scared the crap out of the radical socialists (suburbanites) and actually caused them to vote.

I got a big kick out of this Rolling Stone article, "Tea & Crackers" [warning, it will make yer tea kettle whistle].

[PrestonSturges]

I got to say, I have not met a single person that is enthusiastic about the GOP this year, and that includes some fairly conservative people here.

Rachel Maddow spent the day in Delaware and could not find a single O'Donnell supporter (and this was not her first trip looking for them).

[Plantagenet]

I'm gonna say the dems hang on and keep control of both houses - against all odds. It will be explained in the history books that the old crazy white people in their medicaid wheelchairs scared the crap out of the radical socialists (suburbanites) and actually caused them to vote.

I'll bet you are right, Pops.

How could American turn its back on Obama and the Dems now?... after only two years of exploding deficits, record housing foreclosure rates, massive job losses and GDP downturn.

Surely all those promises Obama and the dems made about creating jobs and fixing the economy in 2008 will eventually come true now if only we keep re-electing the dems so they can continue the same policies that aren't working now.

[Kristen]

I can only hope that such polls are not self fulfilling prophecies. I read in the Star Tribune that conservatives are getting seven times more funding this year then dems. Perhaps this poll will scare democrats into voting after all!

[Sixstrings]

Holy crap Plant, that is the WORST portrait ever. I wonder if it's unintentionally funny.. whoever drew it knows how to draw. Sort of scary pic though, the realsim.. devastating. Maybe going too far, reminds me of Nazi propaganda.

[Ludi]

I got to say, I have not met a single person that is enthusiastic about the GOP this year, and that includes some fairly conservative people here.

Almost everyone is conservative here and they are salivating to destroy the Dems. And it doesn't matter if republicans are "enthusiastic," they will vote anyway. That's just how they are. Dems and independents, in order to preserve their untarnished consciences, may abstain from voting and passively let the GOP win. But they will be pure!