[Graeme]

World oil shortages would center on liquid fuels, forum told

The world could face more of a liquid fuels than crude oil shortage as national economies recover, experts agreed at an Oct. 7 Capitol Hill forum. Global liquid fuels production hit a plateau in mid-2004 where it has generally stayed despite the strongest economic recession in decades, said Robert L. Hirsch, a senior advisor at Management Information Services Inc.

Several nations’ gross domestic products could plunge as a result, he warned at the event cohosted by the Environmental & Energy Study Institute and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas. “The countries that would be hurt the most would be the ones relying most heavily on imports,” said Hirsch, who wrote a report on possible peak oil impacts for the US Department of Energy.

“It’s a liquid fuels problem, not energy. Anyone who tells you that windmills will help is early in his or her understanding of the issue,” he maintained.

“There are huge challenges for meeting rapidly growing demand for liquid fuels,” noted Franklin Rusco, the US Government Accountability Office’s natural resources and environment director. “All commodities’ prices are going to be affected. Before the recession, their prices were high. They can be expected to resume their growth as national economies recover.”

Countries can prepare by aggressively moving rail and other major transportation systems to electricity from diesel fuel, suggested Tad Patzek, chairman of the University of Texas at Austin’s petroleum and geosciences engineering program. “We need modes of transportation that rely less on liquid fuel. This will need to involve coal and nuclear as well as natural gas,” he said.

ogj

[Graeme]

"The End of Oil as we know it" posted separately is one. Here's another published by Huff Post:

Peak Oil Theory, Data and DC Convention Deserve Our Attention

Jim Baldauf, president of a cutting-edge energy group, began its briefing at the National Press Club Oct. 7 by citing the BP Gulf oil disaster, drought in Russia at up to 130 degrees, and massive flood-devastation in Pakistan as evidence that this is the worst year for the environment in recent history.

"I would submit," he said, "that all of these tragedies are due to Peak Oil. Peak Oil will affect every aspect of our life."

Baldauf, above, is a Texas-based oil executive, lifelong environmentalist and leader of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, USA (ASPO). The group argues that after 150 years of oil extraction most major oil exporting nations are well past their supply peaks, defined by scientists as "Peak Oil."

Baldauf is also one of the headliners at ASPO's sixth convention, which continues through Saturday with economists, energy and human rights experts as the group brings its important message for the first time to opinion-leaders in Washington, DC.

huffingtonpost

[Xenophobe]

Off Topic, Deleted.

[eastbay]

It's good that the yearly ASPO event has generated industry news. Let's see if it leaks out into the mainstream press.

It's all about inexpensive and readily available liquids. Without this the Great House of Cards falls down.

[Plantagenet]

Holding the ASPO meeting in DC was a stroke of genius, but will anybody in the government hear the message?

Congress adjourned early so everyone could go campaign and the White House is busy with good-bye parties and press conferences for all the people who are quitting the Obama administration.

[Xenophobe]

A gang of internet friends who have created their own echo chamber in a medium sized hotel dining room is not a noteworthy event. Perhaps the coverage reflects its value to society at large.

[Outcast_Searcher]

A gang of internet friends who have created their own echo chamber in a medium sized hotel dining room is not a noteworthy event. Perhaps the coverage reflects its value to society at large.

I would generally agree -- the problem is the peak oil crowd (or a large and vocal proportion of it, more accurately) keeps preaching total doom soon message, so then the whole concept gets dismissed as a nutjob case. It's fun to preach it to each other though, so I guess that won't stop.

As a message mentioned on this thread (Eastbay, I think) -- the real problem is that when liquid fuels are no longer cheap -- we have a big global problem. The questions are: "how soon this will happen?", and "to what extent?" (given that VERY SLOWLY some mitigating factors/technologies are being brought to bear-- and many future dreams (some of which may work to some extent) are being touted), and I suppose "what is too expensive for the long term?" causes a lot of controversy too.

I think Jeff Rubin clearly states the issue. If he would just stop predicting $200 oil "by the end of next year" followed by $300ish or more oil "real soon now" -- he would, IMO be a "famous" voice of reason in the peak oil crowd.

He also surely loses crediblity for saying some really WEIRD economic things, given that he claims he's an economist (like in his latest book). He claims that if the US currency destructs, then oil will cost (paraphrasing) 20 kazillion dollars -- implying this means doom for the entire globe.

Um -- for the overall globe -- so what? If (only) the dollar destructs, then if a british pound now trades at about 5 kazillion US dollars, nothing has really changed. For Americans -- well, their currency would only worthwhile as toilet paper and for burning for EVERYTHING, so again, so nothing special about oil there. And clearly, the (old) dollar would no longer be the world's reserve currency for long, anyway.

[Graeme]

Peak Oil Warning Gains DC Traction

Jim Baldauf, a co-founder of the Peak Oil movement, began its briefing at the National Press Club Oct. 7 by citing the BP Gulf oil disaster, drought in Russia at up to 130 degrees, and massive flood-devastation in Pakistan as evidence that this is the worst year for the environment in recorded history.

"I would submit," he said, "that all of these tragedies are due to Peak Oil. Peak Oil will affect every aspect of our life."

Baldauf is a Texas-based oil executive, lifelong environmentalist and the key leader of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, USA (ASPO-USA). The group took a giant step forward in raising the visibility of its warnings this week by holding its first Washington, DC-based convention, plus a packed congressional briefing.

Leaders riveted delegates, many of whom are experts themselves, from morning to evening sessions with specifics on the core implictions of their theme: that after 150 years of oil extraction most major oil exporting nations are well past their supply peaks, defined by scientists as "Peak Oil."



Dr. Roger Bezdek, a former U.S. energy delegate to NATO who briefed the staffs of both 2008 presidential nominees during their campaigns, told the Press Club audience this week that mitigation of both supply and demand issues can take years, if not decades. Trucks have a 25-year average projected use, he noted this week, and even if nuclear plants are again allowed they would take many years to plan and build.

A U.S. Joint Forces command study predicts worldwide peak oil in 2015.

opednews