[Cid_Yama]

Let me ask you a question. Do you think that Latinos, Asians, Native Americans...basically our non-white/non-black population...are going to vote for the Republicans in this election by a 52%-42% margin? Yeah, neither does Simon Rosenberg, but that is what Gallup's model is predicting.

The non-white, non-black portion of the American electorate went more than 2:1 Democratic in 2008 and 2006. Hispanics who make up the largest portion of this slice of the electorate, voted 70% to 30% for the Democrats in 2006, and 67% to 31% for President Obama over John McCain in 2008. In two recent polls of Hispanic voters, these basic ratios have not changed, and if is any movement to be found in these polls it is a drop in support for the Republican Party since 2008. A Latino Decisions poll has the Latino vote now at 59% Democrat, 22% Republican. The most recent, and highly respected, Pew Hispanic poll had it at 65% Democrat, 22% Republican. The gap between the most respected Latino poll in the nation - Pew - and this recent Gallup model is 50% percentage points.
Much of the remaining portion of this non-white, non-black slice of the American electorate is Asian. This community actually voted more Democratic in 2008 than Hispanics.

The problem here is not differential turnout. It could be true that Latinos and Asians and Native Americans will not turn out in the same numbers as whites, blacks, or the rest of the electorate as a whole. That would change Gallup's prediction on how many people vote, but it would have no effect on their prediction on how they vote. As Rosenberg points out, it defies common sense that Latinos will be more supportive of the Republican Party this year than they have been in the past.

Given that the Republican Party has actually ratched (sic) up its anti-immigrant rhetoric and activities in the last two years, the idea that the most heavily immigrant portion of the American electorate would see the largest swing to the GOP in 2010 of any slice of the American electorate simply doesn't pass the political laugh test.

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[Plantagenet]

it defies common sense that Latinos will be more supportive of the Republican Party this year than they have been in the past.

Why is that?

Latinos and other minorities have actually been hit harder then whites by job losses and the jobless recovery due to Obama's failed economic policies.

[Cid_Yama]

Are you serious? Here's just a few of the reasons.

Republican Voter Suppression ads trying to convince hispanics not to vote.

"Scary immigrant" ads featuring hispanics.

Racial profiling laws in Arizona.

Abuse of Sonya Sotomayor during her Supreme Court confirmation hearings and anti-hispanic racial comments by Republicans during these hearings.

Republican anti-immigration policies.

Tea Party poll watchers in predominantly hispanic/minority districts disrupting voting at the polls.

Plus all the reasons why no one should want to vote for a Republican.

[Plantagenet]

Have you never heard the saying "Its the economy, stupid"?

The Dem's and Obama's policies have produced a weak, jobless recovery, and they don't have a clue what to do to turn it around.

Who with any sense would vote for the dems and more of the same 9.5%+ unemployment rates?

[Cid_Yama]

Did you not get the fact that is was the Republicans being in the pocket of Wall St, gutting all regulation, looking the other way while they engaged in widespread fraud, and getting rid of the tick rule, that crashed the economy?

Did you not get that it was a miracle that we are even still here to talk about it?

It was all the Republicans fault that we are even having to deal with this.

Friggin' thieves.

[Newfie]

It is an interesting ploy. I think there is a very strong human urge to be part of the "winning" group. So if you proclaim victory, and seem to have the poll numbers to back it up, then you swing a bunch of votes. A self fulfilling prophesy.

Another way of cheating.

Unfortunately Cid I do thing that people "forget" a lot of things real fast. They react more emotionally.

" I am not doing well. The government is screwed up. The Democrats are in power. Vote Republican."

This Juan Williams thing probably won't help. "Liberals attacked one of us. Fox is good. Vote Republican."