[KevO]

so, there you have it. The ones that said it would be decades away, testerday said it was four years ago. I hope we all prepped well

The year 2006 may be remembered for civil strife in Iraq, the nuclear weapon testing threat by North Korea, and the genocide in Darfur, but now it appears that another world event was occurring at the same time—without headlines, but with far-reaching consequence for all nations.

That’s the year that the world’s conventional oil production likely reached its peak, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Vienna, Austria, said Tuesday.

According to the 25-year forecast in the IEA's latest annual World Energy Outlook, the most likely scenario is for crude oil production to stay on a plateau at about 68 to 69 million barrels per day.

In this scenario, crude oil production "never regains its all-time peak of 70 million barrels per day reached in 2006," said IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2010.

In previous years, the IEA had predicted that crude oil production would continue to rise for at least another couple of decades.

Now, because of rising oil prices, declines in investment by the oil industry, and new commitments by some nations to cutting greenhouse gas emissions, the new forecast says oil production is likely to be lower than the IEA had expected.


End of Cheap Oil...............

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2010/11/101109-peak-oil-iea-world-energy-outlook/

[KevO]

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/IEA%20Press%20Release%20-%20Slide%208.png

[Tanada]

That graph is a perfect example of Demand exists so Supply will meet it thinking if I ever saw one!

[Xenophobe]

so, there you have it.
The ones that said it would be decades away, testerday said it was four years ago. I hope we all prepped well

Let me see if I get this right...peak oil happened years ago.....and you are all excited about it? Its been going on so long you could have acquired a college degree, graduated, bought a car, and still had plenty of fuel to travel around the country drinking beer with your friends...and you want to PREP?

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... k-oil.html

[KevO]

so, there you have it.
The ones that said it would be decades away, testerday said it was four years ago. I hope we all prepped well

Let me see if I get this right...peak oil happened years ago.....and you are all excited about it? Its been going on so long you could have acquired a college degree, graduated, bought a car, and still had plenty of fuel to travel around the country drinking beer with your friends...and you want to PREP?

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... k-oil.html

))

[mos6507]

Why should anyone care when the IEA takes a ruler out and draws a straight line all the way to 2035 that magically fills the gap with "undiscovered and undeveloped" crude? We can all go back to sleep, despite peak-oil, thanks to the IEA's comforting graph.

[dolanbaker]

Why should anyone care when the IEA takes a ruler out and draws a straight line all the way to 2035 that magically fills the gap with "undiscovered and undeveloped" crude? We can all go back to sleep, despite peak-oil, thanks to the IEA's comforting graph.

I think that whoever made that graph is saying "I'm not allowed to show you the decline, but it's there if you look". The graph is perfect for BAU people as all they have to do is display it without the captions on the right hand side.

[mos6507]

The graph is perfect for BAU

But why is it someone like Richard Branson, the US and German military have the guts to raise the alarm about peak oil superspikes as early as the next few years, but the IEA, who is specifically tasked with studying this threat, doesn't feel like they can even confirm these dangers? The IEA doesn't have to stand alone anymore. Now is the perfect time to join hands. By going in the opposite direction they are sabotaging forward momentum on this issue.

I think the IEA has rendered itself irrelevant this year. I really think heads should roll after this. I mean, look at how rapidly the expansion of "undiscovered and undeveloped" oil is predicted to go in order to so-conveniently maintain the plateau. Is there any precedence for that sort of growth? It certainly doesn't match the upward trend of NGL or unconventional. If all you do is make the undiscovered and unconventional growth match NGL and unconventional (which is probably more reflective of reality) then we start dipping into a decline in the next few years.

[efarmer]

Well I am grateful that the IEA is not tasked with running the tornado sirens in Missouri.
As one picked through the wreckage of the town it would be horrible to have them sound 4 days after the event!


Thank God we don't get all the Government we pay for.
Will Rogers

[Lore]

The IEA is charged with the responsibility of not panicking the markets. They are desperately trying to find some data that would result in a soft landing. Therefore all best possible scenarios are promoted.

[eXpat]

so, there you have it.
The ones that said it would be decades away, testerday said it was four years ago. I hope we all prepped well

Let me see if I get this right...peak oil happened years ago.....and you are all excited about it? Its been going on so long you could have acquired a college degree, graduated, bought a car, and still had plenty of fuel to travel around the country drinking beer with your friends...and you want to PREP?

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... k-oil.html

Ahh, nothing like good vintage trolling from Shorty, no Shorty, no one is excited here, is just nice to know that the numbers that were circulating here and in TOD are right and we are indeed watching PO from the rearview.
You have been trolling this forum long enough to know that, and to know that we are aapproaching the end of the plateau soon, so you and and everybody else will have plenty of excitment in the years to come.

[Maddog78]

declines in investment by the oil industry

I sure hope the oil companies see this.
Would be nice to see drilling pick up a little next year.
As it is, it seems all they are looking at is the current glut of supply in storage and the 4 mbpd the Saudi's have shut in.

[Daniel_Plainview]

so, there you have it.
The ones that said it would be decades away, testerday said it was four years ago. I hope we all prepped well

Let me see if I get this right...peak oil happened years ago.....and you are all excited about it? Its been going on so long you could have acquired a college degree, graduated, bought a car, and still had plenty of fuel to travel around the country drinking beer with your friends...and you want to PREP?

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... k-oil.html

How do we get rid of this troll?

[Sixstrings]

I assume tar sands and shale fall into the aqua colored "unconventional" category. That's a REALLY small piece of the pie there. Ok.. realistically, how much of what we need can we get out of tar sands and the shale? Take your doomer hat off for a moment folks and be neutral on this one.

Of course there's the EROEI question.. but the main question is whether unconventional growth could be enough to make up for most of the decline? (no I haven't gone cornie just asking the question)

Anyway this is indeed big news.. it fits with what we were all assuming, that we passed peak oil and the world will never again see growth in oil extraction. So many things seem to have come together in 2006, eh? The rumblings of the housing bubble, and the later runup in oil prices and the financial crisis, and now the ongoing economic depression and currency crisis.

I was a sheeple in '06, totally unaware of any of these issues -- I just had a nagging sense something was very wrong in the world but I didn't know why. Then in '08 I stumbled on this forum and began to get those answers.

[Plantagenet]

[KevO]

the debate is over
[url]http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-10/peak-oil-–-“-debate-over”[/url]

[Pops]

How do we get rid of this troll?

Ignore him...
unless you want me to ban everyone that doesn't agree with me.

As noted in the earlier thread, the highlights are in these Fact Sheet PDFs.

[Expatriot]

How do we get rid of this troll?

Ignore him...
unless you want me to ban everyone that doesn't agree with me.

As noted in the earlier thread, the highlights are in these Fact Sheet PDFs.

I'll stand shoulder to shoulder with you regarding allowing dissenting opinion.

BUT

If you're having a school board meeting to discuss reducing summer vacation and some guy is running around the room screaming "no reduction, no reduction," is that disagreement? Or disruption?

[Expatriot]

Gotta tell yuh, I have been at peace with PO for about 5 or 6 years now.

For the first time in many years I had a sliver of a moment of terror when seeing this, because having a formal agency admit that PO for conventional is in the past makes the reality more concrete.

By the way, this is like the cheating wife.

Until today, no admission of cheating. Today - we have an admission that cheating occurred. Now we just have to wait for the admission that it's Tiger Woods x 100.

[Sixstrings]

For the first time in many years I had a sliver of a moment of terror when seeing this, because having a formal agency admit that PO for conventional is in the past makes the reality more concrete.

Oh, official recognition is coming.. peak oil will be the new "global warming." There will be UN resolutions, global conferences, and attempts at global protocols and treaties.

The day will come when peak oil denying scientists will be shunned by the establishment and get no funding. Whole Foods will market "peak oil friendly" arugala to the hipsters. Just wait and see, the entire environmentalist crowd will take up peak oil as the new global cause celebre and it'll be cool to be a doomer -- there'll come a day when you hear so much about peak oil in the mainstream media that you'll be sick thoroughly sick of it.

Maybe the climate change bandwagon is a bad analogy, since so many here don't agree with it (I have my doubts too). But you get my drift.. once peak oil builds critical mass it'll be all over the place.