[thuja]

At least in the public imagination, the concept of global production peaking and its harsh ramifications will likely be completely masked by deepening recessions/depressions, war and ecological/climate change catastrophes.

We will indeed experience increasing scarcity and difficulty in obtaining oil, but it is likely that a large portion of society will not blame geological scarcity as the culprit. They will blame expensive or scarce oil on inflation, war, geopolitical tension, revolutions, civil wars, bank runs, dried up credit, debt, Depressions, etc...all of which will become increasingly frequent in the century ahead of us.

This is the sad part about this topic. Though we will quickly exhaust the rest of our geological supply of oil, and that will truly be the culprit in the decimation of civilization as we know it, it is likely that the vast majority of civilization will mistake the symptoms of collapse as being the root cause.

[thuja]

Too true PStarr. Most of us are quite knowledgable about what's going on and there is still profound debate here over symptoms versus cause and we are only at the beginning of the unraveling.

To the large mass of populous the "noise" of collapse will far outweigh and theoretical conversation about geological scarcity.

Global warming has a better chance of being acknowledged because the changes will become increasingly obvious and apparent. Oil scarcity can always be blamed on...(pick your boogeyman) the evil hoarding Saudis or Russians, the libs not letting us open up the Bakken, inflation, strife in Nigeria, Iranian Mullahs, etc etc.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Right now few people, even here at PO, are willing to concede the financial crisis is peak oil. There are so many avenues of denial, so many competing theories on the cause of our problems:

--Obama/Bush,
--Federal Reserve
--banks,
--commodities speculation,
--weak dollar,
--strong dollar,
--too much/too little regulation,
--global trade,
--currency warfare,
--greedy Wall Street creeps,
--greedy home owners
--capitalism/socialism
--Chinese

A lot of otherwise intelligent people (the especially the white-collar types who frequent these boards) only see the oil they put in their Ford or Toyota. They don't understand that oil goes into:

--trains,
--cargo ships,
--tractors,
--mining equipment,
--work trucks and vans,
--long-haul diesel freight trucks,
--airplanes,
--municipal services like waste disposal, water pumping, road/bridge repair, canal/levee maintenance,
--wars
--food and food processing
--upkeep of buildings,
--new homes
--heating, cooling, lawns, parks, concerts, joy rides, vacations, toys, medicine

Petroleum is the Mother Material. Everything we do or make comes from petroleum. It is the water we swim in. The liquid we breath and eat. People can't see it.

However the truth is so prevalent, so fundamental and intrinsic to everything we do or say that I believe it will eventually leak out, and sooner rather than later. We can not hide from it much longer. Just as soon as the recession does not end the truth will be known.

It is sufficient to show that PO has been a substantial factor in causing the 2008 meltdown; and, even though oil is the lifeblood of the economy, it would be a mistake to assert that peak oil has been the sole factor in causing the current depression.

[Ludi]

Many of us have always said Peak Oil would look like a recession, then a depression, then an economic collapse.

It would never look like "Peak Oil."

[Xenophobe]

At least in the public imagination, the concept of global production peaking and its harsh ramifications will likely be completely masked by deepening recessions/depressions, war and ecological/climate change catastrophes.

So now we've gone from PO causing all those things, to PO being invisible because of these things happening? Thats one heck of a switcheroo. Maybe people aren't noticing these imaginary recessions/depressions because they are out buying stuff?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... eheadlines

[Xenophobe]

I believe this is the last bubble to burst as growth can not continue in a resource-depleted world.

Good thing we haven't depleted much in the way of resources then. I mean really, who needs another FORTY years of oil when we're transitioning into the EV world as fast as our little feet can carry us?

The future is so electric, I can even buy a Ford!

http://www.freep.com/article/20101115/B ... s-Electric

[dinopello]

People believe all sorts of things

A recent Pew Research Center poll shows Americans see it that way, too: 72 percent anticipate a major world energy crisis; 58 percent see another world war as "definite or probably"; and 53 percent foresee the United States being attacked by terrorists with nuclear weapons - all by 2050.

The poll also found that 41 percent of Americans believe Jesus Christ will return to Earth by that time. Even one in five religiously unaffiliated Americans agreed. A 2004 Time/CNN poll found that 59 percent of Americans believe the prophecies in the Book of Revelation will come to pass.

It's really not important what people believe, only what people do.

[Xenophobe]

we're transitioning into the EV world as fast as our little feet can carry us?

Uh. No we are not.

Sure we are. I've got one in the garage, not as cool as the store bought but you can't convince us early adopters that all the LATE adopters aren't the economy of scale game changers we've been waiting for! Hoo Rah!

How many electric cars have been sold in the US since Chevrolet pulled the plug on the EV1 in 1999?

Alot fewer than are being built RIGHT NOW. Bring on the transition....the better the batteries I can purchase aftermarket, the more EV range I get!

Bring on peak oil...my EV will be worth a FORTUNE!

[Xenophobe]

I've got one in the garage

Does it look like this?

Of course not. Its a regular car. With more than a few extra batteries in it.

[rangerone314]

Sure will need a lot of dilithium crystals to power the grid for all of those cars. Oooo how about that cold fusion or vacuum energy?

Maybe if we find a way to harness wishful thinking of cornucopians, we'll have an infinite energy source, sort of like Nikolai Tesla's free energy concept.

No problem... we'll build this wonderful flawless smart grid... after having failed to kill a 6'6" Arab with kidney issues in Afghanistan in 9 years. It takes like 3 years for them to build a 1/2 mile road where I live, and the infrastructure is corroding in this country and it is in huge debt (to be 20 trillion by 2020). I wonder what happens to the interest on the national debt if you increase the principal by a factor of 2 and if the bond rate goes up 5 fold... then 4% being paid into interest becomes 40% unless Federal tax revenue goes up dramatically in 10 years.

Like a giant oak tree that looks strong and impressive on the outside but is riddled with rot and bugs on the inside.

Maybe wishful thinking will make the trillions of Federal and state debt go away.

In 15 years, the US is going to be like northeast Mexico is now.

The only smart grid being constructed the next 20 years will be a grid of automated sentry guns run by a laptop on an isolated intranet. (to deal w/zombie biker gangs, LOL)

[Xenophobe]

Sure will need a lot of dilithium crystals to power the grid for all of those cars. Oooo how about that cold fusion or vacuum energy?

Google up peak electrical loads on the US grid. See when they happen. Then maybe check out load balancing. Note how it uses the same infrastructure as when peak loads happen....only the load isn't there any more. But thats when the cars come home and get charged up. Ain't technology grand?

Maybe if we find a way to harness wishful thinking of cornucopians, we'll have an infinite energy source, sort of like Nikolai Tesla's free energy concept.

Why? They weren't necessary when we were running out of crude in the 1910's, certainly they shouldn't be required now either.

[Daniel_Plainview]

or this?

Everyone wave to the Antidoomer! Nice hood, dude!

[dolanbaker]

Forget cars! We will soon be in a situation where private cars will again only be affordable by the wealthy, it won't be the availibility of oil that kills it but the price. Real wages are falling and will continue to do so, coupled with increases in the costs of essentials, motoring will get more and more expensive for the majority of drivers.

EV may be cheap to run, but may be just too expensive for many to buy. Soon we will see a return to migrations to where the work is rather than commuting daily to and from a job in a distant town.

[Pops]

Lets try to stay on the topic here, which looks to be "expensive energy won't be blamed on geology".


...
I agree that initially people may look for any excuse and scapegoat to hang expensive energy on. And of course that can get us into trouble down the road.

But I live out where people cling to their guns and bibles and think Al Gore is the devil who wants to take those guns and tax their diesel (somehow he'll get all the carbon tax money - I haven't figured out how yet). Regardless, many guys I know (who could) bought little pickups and parked the 1-ton-4WD-Club-Cab-diesel-dually a couple years ago - they didn't sell it, they just don't drive it daily. So as far as GW goes they'll more quickly adapt to energy scarcity than admit to FFs causing environmental damage.

In fact, I don't hear a lot about the A-rabs or evil oil cos from the people I talk to. Out here people live and die by commodity prices, they must adjust or they'll quickly go broke because credit is really tight.

Fertilizer is $800 a ton, corn is heading to $7/bu and thieves are stealing the A/C units of little rural churches for the copper. Hay prices for example are "permanently" higher by maybe 20-30%! Thats a really huge increase, so instead of getting your hay cut on a 50/50 share, a lot of guys are asking for 60/40 or 2/3 for custom baling.

[lulubel]

I wonder how many people will ever know, or ever WANT to know what's really behind the "financial" crisis. As long as it's just a financial crisis, there's always hope that we'll return to business as usual, and even though we'll be in the midst of the worst depression ever, these things always have an end if we can just ride it out.

The alternative, that there will never be a return to business as usual, is too terrifying for the majority to contemplate, so every time they get a glimpse of the truth, they'll just put their heads back in the sand and pretend they never saw it. A low energy future must look pretty devoid of hope to people who are addicted to consuming, so they'll look for an explanation that gives them hope. This attitude seems to be bourne out by what Pops said about his neighbours. They haven't sold their big pickups, they're keeping them for the day when the economy picks up and they'll be able to afford to run them again.