[Carlhole]

PhysOrg

(PhysOrg.com) -- A Cornell University scientist has demonstrated that psi anomalies, more commonly known as precognition, premonitions or extra-sensory perception (ESP), really do exist at a statistically significant level. Psi anomalies are defined as "anomalous processes of information or energy transfer that are currently unexplained in terms of known physical or biological mechanisms."

Interesting experiment. Nicely robust and easily duplicated. No reason why it couldn't be continually duplicated even by freshmen and sophomores at colleges everywhere.

There had been some other experiments years ago along these lines which also showed some statistically significant support for a similar conclusion about human psi effects. But how do you square that with science? Even if the statistically significant deviation is only very slight, it still points to some new property of quantum mechanics that the brain must be able to tap into some way - what else could it be?

Months ago, I read about a study of how geese migrate so accurately.

Scientists have long speculated that birds navigate the globe using magnetism; however, a new study suggests that quantum entanglement indeed enables birds to "see" the Earth's magnetic field as if it were a pattern of colors.

The properties of time and space are so weird at the QM level... but if the brain is somehow able to extract QM information (like geese extract another kind of information) maybe peering into the future is possible to some extent. I have to wonder if this effect could be magnified.

[Sixstrings]

Scientists have long speculated that birds navigate the globe using magnetism; however, a new study suggests that quantum entanglement indeed enables birds to "see" the Earth's magnetic field as if it were a pattern of colors.

Interesting, but that cries out for more details. What's the proof that birds sense quantum entanglement? Which organ is involved, or gland in the brain.. what's the biological mechanism for "sensing quantum entanglement?"

Until those questions can be answered, this is pure speculation.

[diemos]

A Cornell University scientist has demonstrated that psi anomalies, more commonly known as precognition, premonitions or extra-sensory perception (ESP), really do exist at a statistically significant level.

Yes! yes! I'm having a precognitive flash right now!

I'm seeing a Cornell University Scientist's flawed methodology being exposed as bunkum by real scientists.

Wow, I guess pre-cog really does work.

And here for your enjoyment is Niven's law:
Psychic powers if real are useless, otherwise we would have done something with them during the past 6000 years.

[vision-master]

Interesting, but that cries out for more details. What's the proof that birds sense quantum entanglement? Which organ is involved, or gland in the brain.. what's the biological mechanism for "sensing quantum entanglement?"

Right brain. We have it, but it has been suppressed through our un-natural clock system developed by the Sumerian's mathematical equations of the circle, known as our time keeping clock of today.

[vision-master]

And here for your enjoyment is Niven's law:
Psychic powers if real are useless, otherwise we would have done something with them during the past 6000 years.

Yes, we lost them.

[ian807]

And here for your enjoyment is Niven's law:
Psychic powers if real are useless, otherwise we would have done something with them during the past 6000 years.

Yes, we lost them.

Yes, we lost them because they wouldn't help anyone if what you saw was unchangeable. The absence of such powers to any significant degree in the general populace argues against free will and for a mechanistic universe.

Another possibility, however, is that local temporal feedback of information mucks with local probability. In human terms, this would probably amount to what we term, "bad luck" since unusual events are only rarely advantageous, but again, maladaptive.

[Oakley]

If you want to look into the future, I think there are better ways than the sort of precognition this study is talking about.

The peak oil theory is an application of math to data to make projections of future production, for example. This is taking a look into the future, as fuzzy as the details might be.

Repeat patterns in history give some indication of what is to come. Statisticians have used cycles identified in data (time series analysis) to make rough predictions about the future; unfortunately most of these techniques require a fair deal of averaging to identify the size and position of the cycles and the future repeat of the pattern will not necessarily be the average, so there is some margin of error.

And sometimes, just having such a great deal of knowledge about a particular field allows one to make estimates of that will happen next in that field.

I think that if you combine a number of ways to estimate the future you can make a reasonable judgment about a framework.

Peak oil tells us that after peak the economy will enter long term contraction for want of energy to fuel industrial output upon which the lives of so many is helplessly dependent. Lack of the necessities of life will lead to increase in the death rate. It seems reasonable to me that population levels will follow economic contraction.

"The Fourth Turning" tells us about repeat patterns in history, and that the current crisis period is parallel to the lead up periods to the American Revolution (1775), the Civil War (1861), and World War II (1941). We are due (~2020) for a nation threatening conflict that has resolved these similar crisis periods of the past; considering that two of the last three were civil conflicts and considering the growing division in the US today, I would bet on another revolution / civil war. Crisis breeds conflict.

Combine just these two concepts and I see a bleak future for humankind; one does not need some sort of magical precognition to see enough of the future to make me sometimes wish I had not peeked.

[vision-master]

I see death and rebirth. Just another cycle of the seed of life.



The Wisdom Keepers say these spirals are the return of the light/ energy beings.



Ancient's from all over the World seen this spirals in the sky's and carved these petroglyph's into stone.

[Crazy_Dad]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohist ... ctional%29

Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make (nearly) exact predictions of the collective actions of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire. It was first introduced in the five short stories (1942–1944) which would later be collected as the 1951 novel Foundation.

I'd sooner subscribe to Asimov, seems logical at least.

[Ludi]

I'd sooner subscribe to Asimov, seems logical at least.

Lots of things that seem logical may actually be impossible. But they make for cool sci-fi.

[BlisteredWhippet]

In the 100 sessions subjects consistently selected the correct curtain 53.1 percent of the time for the erotic pictures, significantly over the 50 percent expected by pure chance. For the non-erotic pictures, the success rate was only 49.8 percent.

So lets assume 50 of 100 is the random assortment. How far away from the mean, statistically, is 53.1? Lets assume a 95% confidence level. That means 95% of all samples will fall between 47.5 and 52.5, the extra 5 being 5%, the results that we would not expect to occur by chance alone.

Yet 95% confidence levels are not necessarily standard.

So lets assume he took twenty or so rounds of these sample groups and averaged their means, obtaining a mean of means. 53.1 is only 0.6 beyond a 95% confidence level and well within range if using a more conventional confidence level of 90%. Typically you use a lower confidence level when the parameters of the experiment are subject to greater randomization, statistical "noise", or uncertainty. Ostensibly this is why the experiements are so simple, to eliminate cross-variability. We don't know if the subjects perceived subtle unconscious cues from the interrogator, variations and individuations in the testing methodology, or otherwise. Even if errors are found, he has only proven that it is unlikely that, within 8 years, there are some behaviors (picking which image of a curtain will be replaced by an image of a picture) that will produce themselves ofre frequently. The so whats fill in the rest.
[/quote]

It sure as hell ain't no slam dunk. When they start popping off results at a 99% confidence level, then Vegas and the Powerball will have to be shut down. Until then, there ain't no thing called precognition. Hell, people can't even perform POST-cognition most of the time.

[Sixstrings]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29

Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make (nearly) exact predictions of the collective actions of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire. It was first introduced in the five short stories (1942–1944) which would later be collected as the 1951 novel Foundation.

I'd sooner subscribe to Asimov, seems logical at least.

That was a good series of books. Doomers should like it.. the idea is that the galactic Empire is declining so slowly that nobody really notices, just bit by bit everything's falling apart, innovation and progress have stopped.

[Carlhole]

Why Psychologists Must Change the Way They Analyze Their Data: The Case of Psi (pdf)

Abstract
Does psi exist? In a recent article, Dr. Bem conducted nine studies with over a thousand participants in an attempt to demonstrate that future events retroactively affect people’s responses. Here we discuss several limitations of Bem’s experiments on psi; in particular, we show that the data analysis was partly exploratory, and that one-sided p-values may overstate the statistical evidence against the null hypothesis. We reanalyze Bem’s data using a default Bayesian t-test and show that the evidence for psi is weak to nonexistent. We argue that in order to convince a skeptical audience of a controversial claim, one needs to conduct strictly confirmatory studies and analyze the results with statistical tests that are conservative rather than liberal. We conclude that Bem’s p-values do not indicate evidence in favor of precognition; instead, they indicate that experimental psychologists need to change the way they conduct their experiments and analyze their data.

Oops, no psi. But dang, that was a quick response to the recent claim that a psi effect had been seen.

[BlisteredWhippet]

If you want to look into the future, I think there are better ways than the sort of precognition this study is talking about.

The peak oil theory is an application of math to data to make projections of future production, for example. This is taking a look into the future, as fuzzy as the details might be.

All the math says is that there is more Oil coming out of the ground, on average this decade than the Earth had ever produced. People have debated one chart against another. All Peak Oil is, is a bunch of models. It is not a science.

So in terms of Crises, Peak Oil is a complete unknown. I think it is nothing compared to the ecological crisis, which is in a system much more thorough and studied. And its conclusions are stronger because the mathematical scope is diffuse and broad. The environmental conclusions are absolutely destructive in a completely negative way. You cannot say that about a mere economic crisis. People lose their jobs, but, no one eats their pets after all.

Personally, I don't think people can stomach the reality of the environmental collapse, and prefer a small, Peak Oil ghetto to get lost in. It remains to be seen if, by the end of all the "relocalization" efforts, there will be much left to save of many key, unique species and habitats on Earth. The worst models, and they are very serious, see a cataclysmic shift to drastically unfavorable equilibria. A total loss of life throughout the web of life, felt by every thing that lives except some random insects, fungi, plants, and sea creatures. A world ruled mostly by microbiological life. If this happens in the next 39 years, and you want to live, you had better find the hidden underground Vault and somehow get inside with those people. I hear they are up there, the Rocky Mountains, Nevadan highlands, who knows? And you know the Russki's and Iran has their underground bunkers fully outfitted (did you know Ahmadinejad is a tunneling engineer?)

And sometimes, just having such a great deal of knowledge about a particular field allows one to make estimates of that will happen next in that field.

That is true. Always look into fields of inquiry. Don't get stuck in this Peak Oil ghetto.

I think that if you combine a number of ways to estimate the future you can make a reasonable judgment about a framework.

I wonder how many unreasonable judgments you are likely to make without more knowledge in every field of inquiry? In other words, if you are your own yardstick for the truth, its possible you're just yanking your own chain.

Peak oil tells us that after peak the economy will enter long term contraction for want of energy to fuel industrial output upon which the lives of so many is helplessly dependent. Lack of the necessities of life will lead to increase in the death rate. It seems reasonable to me that population levels will follow economic contraction.

"The Fourth Turning" tells us about repeat patterns in history, and that the current crisis period is parallel to the lead up periods to the American Revolution (1775), the Civil War (1861), and World War II (1941). We are due (~2020) for a nation threatening conflict that has resolved these similar crisis periods of the past; considering that two of the last three were civil conflicts and considering the growing division in the US today, I would bet on another revolution / civil war. Crisis breeds conflict.

Combine just these two concepts and I see a bleak future for humankind; one does not need some sort of magical precognition to see enough of the future to make me sometimes wish I had not peeked.

Does Crisis breed Conflict? Or does Conflict breed Crisis?

Let me tell you something, Oakley:

Study suggests precognition is possible; precognition suggests study is correct.

These are the premises of your conclusion:

Peak oil tells us that after peak the economy will enter long term contraction for want of energy to fuel industrial output upon which the lives of so many is helplessly dependent. Lack of the necessities of life will lead to increase in the death rate. It seems reasonable to me that population levels will follow economic contraction.

No legitimate government will stand that allows it citizens to go without toilet paper, food, and especially, toothbrushes. If you think the USA will not provide, well, that would be gross dereliction of government. Someone would get elected who would in fact order free toilet paper for everyone. Death by hard scrape of the asshole will not happen. Civilization will stand on that perforated line and surpass this challenge.

I just demolished your first premise, that there will be a increase in death due to lack of necessities. @nd, this proves that people's actual lives are not "helplessly dependent" on the economy. Industrial output is a game that America got out while the gettin' was good. Its going to be a huge problem for everybody with shit to sell, or maybe everyone knee deep in the global economy. The new, "all domestic" economy will still be absolutely massive; what with all the government-funded toilet paper plants providing needed employment. Of course, they will be paid in Toilet paper.

I read Fourth Turning and what it really proves is that there are cycles, and humanity never met one that it couldn't surmount.

I tell people that human beings will be fine; not necessarily YOU and they get my point... some of them. The rest think something called precognition in any form is possible. And since they believe their faulty premises, they believe a scenario of marvellous fractal geometry about how they will cope with the situations in the images in their imaginations.

And then tomorrow, you wake up and its just life.

[Oakley]

No legitimate government will stand that allows it citizens to go without toilet paper, food, and especially, toothbrushes. If you think the USA will not provide, well, that would be gross dereliction of government. Someone would get elected who would in fact order free toilet paper for everyone. Death by hard scrape of the asshole will not happen. Civilization will stand on that perforated line and surpass this challenge.

I just demolished your first premise, that there will be a increase in death due to lack of necessities. @nd, this proves that people's actual lives are not "helplessly dependent" on the economy. Industrial output is a game that America got out while the gettin' was good. Its going to be a huge problem for everybody with shit to sell, or maybe everyone knee deep in the global economy. The new, "all domestic" economy will still be absolutely massive; what with all the government-funded toilet paper plants providing needed employment. Of course, they will be paid in Toilet paper.

I agree that government will not stand when output falls below a certain level, but I think you misunderstand what government is and does. Government cannot require people to do what is impossible. Look at the poor results as those in power attempt to right the sinking economy in these early days of energy driven economic contraction. Government cannot command production if adequate resources are not available to produce enough for everyone to survive. Actually, quite the opposite happens when government interferes with the efforts of people to pursue their own bests interests.

Command the production of food without farmers or home gardeners having the tools, supplies, and/or skills see what level of food production this "all domestic" government directed dream can produce. Could have government command prevented the deaths of those who died in the Irish Potato Famine by ordering the production of more potatoes? How many people died in Europe when the drop in temperature brought crop failures during the Little Ice Age? Would government command have saved them? I suppose government command would have allowed the Donner Party to produce food in the dead of winter.

I think the only thing you have demonstrated is your misguided faith in politicians and bureaucrats to take care of your needs.

[steam_cannon]

Scientists have long speculated that birds navigate the globe using magnetism; however, a new study suggests that quantum entanglement indeed enables birds to "see" the Earth's magnetic field as if it were a pattern of colors.

Interesting, but that cries out for more details. What's the proof that birds sense quantum entanglement? Which organ is involved, or gland in the brain.. what's the biological mechanism for "sensing quantum entanglement?"

Until those questions can be answered, this is pure speculation.

The eyes.

Birds Exhibit Longest Suspected Quantum Entanglement(Technology Review 2009)

The process is an area of ongoing research, however it seems there is enough evidence so far to create a research model, more articles below.

Reverse engineering a quantum compass

Electrons in cryptochrome usually come in pairs, each with an opposite spin like a planet revolving on its axis. But when light strikes the molecule, it can carry one of the electrons away. The presence of a magnetic field can then make each spinning electron wobble like a plate balanced on a stick. When the wayward electron returns to its original molecule, any change it has picked up in its spin sparks a chemical signal that some scientists believe allows birds to see magnetic fields as a pattern of colors.

How this chemical signal gets triggered may depend whether or not the spins of cryptochrome electrons are intimately entwined in a quantum state called entanglement. When two electrons’ spins are entangled, one always knows what the other is doing, spinwise, even if they’re far apart.

Getting back to the article, from an arm chair perspective...

Photon Entanglement

Instantaneous communication by means of quantum entanglement is actually impossible because neither side can manipulate the state of the entangled particles, they can only measure it (see No-communication theorem). This fact means that if you measure one particle you cannot infer anything meaningful about the observers measuring the other particle, except you know what state they will measure, or have already measured. Thus causality is preserved.

That line kind of jumped out at me. Regarding the article, for entanglement to be involved in some kind of optical psi phenomenon a person would have to be able to take an early measurement of a particle that is tied to a pair particle that is measured (collapsing it's state) a significant time later. That would be pretty far out and a big stretch of the imagination as to how that would happen, though it would make great science fiction story. To be real that would require some very strange long lived particle interactions. So it's not very likely in this universe.

Also I'm not convinced the results were statistically significant.

[Carlhole]

Also I'm not convinced the results were statistically significant.[/url]

You're right. And here is the refutation.

Why Psychologists Must Change the Way They Analyze Their Data: The Case of Psi (pdf)

Abstract
Does psi exist? In a recent article, Dr. Bem conducted nine studies with over a thousand participants in an attempt to demonstrate that future events retroactively affect people’s responses. Here we discuss several limitations of Bem’s experiments on psi; in particular, we show that the data analysis was partly exploratory, and that one-sided p-values may overstate the statistical evidence against the null hypothesis. We reanalyze Bem’s data using a default Bayesian t-test and show that the evidence for psi is weak to nonexistent. We argue that in order to convince a skeptical audience of a controversial claim, one needs to conduct strictly confirmatory studies and analyze the results with statistical tests that are conservative rather than liberal. We conclude that Bem’s p-values do not indicate evidence in favor of precognition; instead, they indicate that experimental psychologists need to change the way they conduct their experiments and analyze their data.

Oops, no psi. But dang, that was a quick response to the recent claim that a psi effect had been seen.

[steam_cannon]

No legitimate government will stand that allows it citizens to go without toilet paper, food, and especially, toothbrushes...

Perhaps you were joking a bit, but seriously, we don't hand out TP to homeless in the USA. I really can't think of any government that hands out toilet paper, the soviets didn't when they collapsed, they used books. And we don't do so well with handing out food or toothbrushes either.

Just sayin...