Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 09:05:18

There is propaganda, and there are facts. For anyone seeking just one concise, definitive and completely true (as in fact-, not hope- based) explanation of what has happened to the American economy in the past 2 years, we suggest this presentation by former OMB director David Stockman, whose 10 minute appearance on the CNBC's strategy session left the hosts with absolutely nothing to retort.

Among his observations: the government sector for the first time in history is shrinking: "the reason is that governments are broke... we are going to have to cut back government employment." And it gets scarier: "if you take core government plus the middle class economy (65 million jobs), that's the breadwinning economy, if we take some numbers - how many jobs in the "core economy" in November - zero; how many jobs since last December: net zero; how many jobs since the bottom of the recession in June 2009: still a million behind from when the recession ended."

As to whether the economy can grow without employment growth: "I can't imagine how it can because employment growth generates income growth which is the basis for spending and saving ultimately and we are not getting income growth out of the middle class." And the stunner: the job "growth" has come almost exclusively from the part-time economy (two-thirds). Why is this a major problem: "there is 35 million jobs in that sector, with an average wage of $20,000 a year: that is not a breadwinning job, you can't support a family on that, you can't save on that. Those jobs will not generate income that will become self-feeding into spending."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/former-omb-director-debunks-economic-recovery-myth


EXCELLENT interview.. this guy doesn't have an exe to grind, just lays out the facts; video is worth watching (skip ahead 2 1/2 minutes for interview):

http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1680963951/code/cnbcplayershare

In the video, the former OMB director walks you through some charts showing that basically the job losses have been coming from all the "good" middle class jobs. Jobs added ever since Bush were all low paying McJobs.

At the rate of this current "reovery," he estimates it will take FORTY-ONE YEARS for there to be a middle class jobs recovery -- that's best case, assuming no double dip between now and the MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY. 8O
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 09:31:59

Thanks for posting that clip Sixstrings. It was indeed worth watching.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Cog » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 10:07:54

He makes a good case of why recovery is impossible given the current dynamic.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13416
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Lore » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 10:23:57

Something I've been saying here for quite a while now. The dynamic though has changed not just over the last two years, but has been a slow grind to where we are today over the last few decades. Technology and Globalization has changed the way we work and live. It is not in the control of governments to overcome these trends.

In addition, the average American household income has hit the wall as the full employment of both spouses can no longer drive the economy forward. There is simply not enough working resources left per household to compensate for flat real wages, or as shown in the recent downturn to make up for a job lost or a job that pays less.

Cut the middle class government workers out of their jobs and those making middle class wages from the private sector and you have fundamentally gutted the economy.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
User avatar
Lore
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9021
Joined: Fri 26 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 10:29:33

Lore wrote:In addition, the average American household income has hit the wall as the full employment of both spouses can no longer drive the economy forward. There is simply not enough working resources left per household to compensate for flat real wages, or as shown in the recent downturn to make up for a job lost or a job that pays less.



Could it lead to the expansion of the household to include extended family and friends? I guess what I'm wondering is, if the nuclear family can no longer support itself because two income earners can't make enough to drive the economy forward, what happens if more incomes are added to the support of the household?
Ludi
 

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 10:36:40

Web Bot say's many Universities and Colleges will start failing in 2011.
vision-master
 

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby cualcrees » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 10:46:10

What's "OMB"? :oops:
"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell."
- Edward Abbey
cualcrees
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 176
Joined: Wed 28 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Mexico

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 10:48:04

vision-master wrote:Web Bot say's many Universities and Colleges will start failing in 2011.



No they won't, they will be saved by private donations!

:)

Most of the great universities and colleges were founded by the private sector, and they will be preserved by the private sector.

:)
Ludi
 

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 10:49:32

Cog an his entitlement cronies will save the day..... :)
vision-master
 

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 10:50:41

vision-master wrote:Cog an his entitlement cronies will save the day..... :)



Darn tootin'! The private sector can fix anything if the guvmint would just butt out!

:)
Ludi
 

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Lore » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 10:52:50

Ludi wrote:
Lore wrote:In addition, the average American household income has hit the wall as the full employment of both spouses can no longer drive the economy forward. There is simply not enough working resources left per household to compensate for flat real wages, or as shown in the recent downturn to make up for a job lost or a job that pays less.



Could it lead to the expansion of the household to include extended family and friends? I guess what I'm wondering is, if the nuclear family can no longer support itself because two income earners can't make enough to drive the economy forward, what happens if more incomes are added to the support of the household?


Too many interpersonal problems. I believe you're referring to communes, something I have experience with in a participatory way.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
User avatar
Lore
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9021
Joined: Fri 26 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 11:20:03

Lore wrote: I believe you're referring to communes, something I have experience with in a participatory way.


No, I'm referring to extended families.

Like most people live in worldwide.
Ludi
 

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Cog » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 14:43:18

Ludi wrote:
vision-master wrote:Cog an his entitlement cronies will save the day..... :)

Darn tootin'! The private sector can fix anything if the guvmint would just butt out!
:)


I feel sort of cheated that I only got a two person dog-pile. I blame the economy. :lol:
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13416
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby diemos » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 14:45:48

cualcrees wrote:What's "OMB"? :oops:


An excellent reason to type "OMB" into the search bar on your browser.

Google is your friend, use it.
User avatar
diemos
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1423
Joined: Fri 23 Sep 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Oneaboveall » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 15:11:43

cualcrees wrote:What's "OMB"? :oops:

Office of Managment and Budget
When the banksters want something, our policymakers move with the speed of Mercury and the determination of Ares. It’s only when the rest of us need something that there is paralysis.

How free are we today with the dominance of globalist capital and militarized security apparatus?
Oneaboveall
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 631
Joined: Mon 01 Nov 2010, 17:56:45

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 15:28:57

8) I remember reading a book by Stockman shortly after he left the Reagan administration. Sort of a tell all" it wasn't my fault" you see a lot of the time from newly unemployed insiders. His claim was that he was sent out to deliver the bad news about what it would take to decrease the size of government enough to pay for Reagan's tax cuts. In the end Reagan cut a deal with Tip O'Neil to get his military build up and they punted any real budget cuts down the road. Then Reagan got shot and from then on his presidency was mostly a coast to the finish at least as far as the economy was concerned.
I love it when the Dems bring up the Reagen years with a convenient memory lapse about who was in charge in Congress.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 15:45:25

It's fair to say that that analysis could be applied to almost any Western state, now that we have reached the limits of growth, fuelled by cheap energy and cheap labour.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3855
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 10:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: Former OMB Director Debunks The Economic Recovery Myth

Unread postby Lore » Sun 05 Dec 2010, 17:46:08

pstarr wrote:Colbert asked Stockman if he invented "trickle-down economics" The guy was only momentarily flustered


You mean tinkle down economics, or as the old saying goes; "Don't go pissing down my back and telling me it's raining".
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
User avatar
Lore
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9021
Joined: Fri 26 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet

Next

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests