[Keith_McClary]

Flooding paralyses Queensland coal industry

As Queensland Premier Anna Bligh predicted the damage bill from the state's worst floods in at least half a century would run into several billion dollars, miners including Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Xstrata and Anglo American were forced to shut down production at dozens of mines.

While some underground mines were still operating, rail links to the coast have been closed and the state's only operating coal port, at Gladstone, is running at just 40 per cent capacity and only loading ships from a coal stockpile already at the port.

The industry says the crisis is more severe than the January 2008 floods that resulted in a clean-up bill of more than $1bn and lost production of up to eight million tonnes of coal, worth about $1.8bn at today's prices.

[hillsidedigger]

That's abrupt.

[SeaGypsy]

This weather in Oz has me wondering about the projections for sustained drought under GW modelling.
So far of course this is just a wet 18 month period fairly well within normal bands under La Nina.
But the ideas about strengthening ocean currents in the Atlantic conveyor resulting in drastic change in Europe's climate make interesting reflections to ponder on the South Eastern Pacific conveyor, running away from the equator down the east coast of Oz and dispersing in the confluence of the Tasman Sea and the Southern Ocean. A similar strengthening of conveyor currents in the south could mean more warm water being pushed deeper into the Sothern Ocean, resulting in much higher rainfall along the east coast and southern NZ. If this were to become the norm, the coal industry could be in permanent calamity. But at least we would have water, which is kinda nice.

[papa moose]

The coal industry would be fine, pile the over burden around the pit to create a leeve and then install a few extra dewatering pumps.
Nice to see the east getting some rain, apparently Perth is in it's 30th year of drought status, no wonder my lawn is so brown
What would all this up welling and strengthening of conveyor belts mean on the west coast? The main streams dont seem to come down this neck of the woods, while our current climate is great for beach culture it's not wonderful for trying to grow anything (doesn't matter how many rainwater tanks you have if it never rains).

[SeaGypsy]

Extremely difficult to predict. There is no equivalent situation to compare to. But to generalise strenthening of the northern Atlantic conveyor flow seems to have concentrated warming to the exteme north and accelerated displacement of Arctic cold water in the western European southerly conveyor. If something similarish can be anticipated the west coast could get cooler and dryer.
BTW for those who are unaware, the reason for dry western seaboards and damp eastern ones is the movement of warm water away from the equator on the western edge of the oceans and the displacement by cold water along eastern ocean edges.

[Laromi]

Why worry about a little water in Queensland albeit Australia?

Australia is the world's biggest coal exporter, and black coal is Australia's largest export, worth more than $A50 billion in 2008-09. In addition to providing Australian consumers with affordable electricity, coal underpins the international competitiveness of the entire Australian economy, as well as being a major force driving the social and economic development of regional Australia. http://www.australiancoal.com.au/the-au ... ports.aspx

Queensland is the biggest producer of beef and veal (and beef cannot be bought to the market, slaughter houses have very little stock – if any, and whatever stock is available in Queensland is mostly inaccessible due to the current wet as, by the way, are vegetables and other agricultural supplies. )
Australia has 2.8% of the world cattle inventory and is the 8th biggest beef producer
http://www.mla.com.au/About-the-red-mea ... iew/Cattle

BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) is Australia’s largest coal miner and exporter, and the world's largest supplier to the seaborne coking coal market. http://www.bhpbilliton.com/bb/ourBusine ... al/bma.jsp

“Early in 2009, the supply and demand in agricultural markets went badly out of balance. The world experienced a catastrophic fall in food production as a result of the financial crisis (low commodity prices and lack of credit) and adverse weather on a global scale.”
“Normally food prices should have already shot higher months ago, leading to lower food consumption and bringing the global food supply/demand situation back into balance. This never happened because the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), instead of adjusting production estimates down to reflect decreased production, adjusted estimates upwards to match increasing demand from china. In this way, the USDA has brought supply and demand back into balance (on paper) and temporarily delayed a rise in food prices by ensuring a catastrophe in 2010.”
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2 ... mmies.html

Italics mine.

[Laromi]

Week gone, Weeks to go!
"Force Majeure" called for coal industry. Estimated loss by coal producers currently to be about $A1b. Agricultural food losses estimated to be apx $A1b. Total State losses to date - employment etc- estimated to be $A10b for Queensland.

Natural gas production has been flood affected in Southern Queensland.

12 people are officially dead, 9 people for whom grave fears held, and 67 people missing. Most from Lochyer valley, an agricultural area, where most crops are totally destroyed.

Clean up costs have been said by economists to be as much as or greater than Katrina.

Central Queensland is still isolated. Reports of truckies driving an extra 2000k through South Australia and Northern Territory to deliver food supplies to Rockhampton, Makay, Townsville and Cairns.

Northern New south Wales rural/agricultural area currently facing devastating flooding.

Supermarkets in Maryborough and Hervey Bay mostly have no bread, meat, milk. toilet paper and canned food. Reports from other cities including our State capitol, Brisbane are similar.

In areas where floodinh has receded mosquitoes, sand flies and other midges are becoming a real issue, which will be exacerbated with in the next few days as lava and egg hatching completes the breeding cycle. Apart from waterborne disease, vector borne disease will become a real issue in the comming weeks again, with the potential to exacerbate employment issues.

Northern Australia which includes Queensland, is only about 6 weeks into the "wet" cyclone (hurricane) season, with most of the areas likely to be subjected to now sodden, it will take only a "small" weather event to turn into a complete disaster as winter crops at least, will not be able to be planted.

Previously drought affected areas planted on spec for a good spring/summer crop have been mostly wiped out in Queensland, so that is another 2 seasons of crops wiped out on top of one of australias' worst droughts therefore graziers and crop farmers are now facing catastrophic financial crises.

Inability to access flood areas is affecting the process of assessment by insurance agencies and government departments.
On the other side of the country, Western Australia is suffering the most "usual" of our natural disasters is now seeing bush fires with houses destroyed.

GFC? This could potentially be Australia's

[Laromi]

Coal Industry spokesman predicts coal to rise to $A400 tonne (Seven News TV) as a result of floods.

[Laromi]

Update for those interested.

Fifteen people confirmed dead in floods, 12 people for whom grave concerns are held, 45 people missing or unaccounted for.

Police have initiated anti looting squads in city and areas affected by floods.

Anna Bligh (state premier) indicates $A20b flood damage to Southern Queensland only.

12 thousand homes inundated whilst and overall 26k homes have suffered flood inundation to some degree, and a new peak of the Brisbane river forecast.

120k housed are without electrical supply.

Queensland's major fresh food markets and dry food storage warehouses are under water at Rockleigh and cannot be serviced. Most food within them will probably be written off thereby causing statewide food problems.

Not only will State and other Australian states be affected by this huge weather event, it will be a global problem to some degree, greater in some countries and less in others, obviously. Nevertheless, I suspect it will impact to a reasonable degree on worldwide food prices.

For instance Australian grain crops were estimated to be one of the greatest in history. Most grain areas had moderate rainfall last year after the big dry. A major proportion of these areas are now under water and anecdotal evidence (TV interviews from farmers, agricultural associations, and various forums)at this stage, seem to point to about 60% total crop losses. I would think, that as with coal, a "force majeure" may be called for upon all raw grain products.

Petrol is running short in some communities with ports unsafe to unload bulk fuel due to turbulence caused through flood waters and road supply deliveries cut because of road wash outs. This applies from the north - Rockhampton to basically the whole length of the N.S.W. border.

The attached tail end of this devastating weather system has now hit the southern state of Victoria today, and has caused massive crop losses and flash flooding. There have been no reported deaths.

The above's Bad News? To the north of us there is now a tropical low, a cyclone (hurricane) precursor, formed and tracking west to Aus. There is also a cyclone T.C. Van in the Pacific ocean heading WSW i.e. to Aus. The potential of these systems will probably not be know for about two days or so.

Santos has announced (ABC News24) slight delay in beginning $18b LNG project. The project is to recover apx. 1.44bb oil equivalent which is based on a 50% recovery estimate and equal to about 4.003 petajoules. Old Santos site describing project which was approved for operation today by State Government. Sydney Morning Herald
http://www.smh.com.au/business/santos-r ... -nm1c.html

Curious - folk, probably not affected by the floods, and to all intent and purposes wandering the streets gawking - as power to all flood affected parts of the city, and also to some unaffected businesses on the same grid - is shut off - are criticizing military helicopters flying around an landing in town areas and parking vehicles which are involved on emergency missions in city and suburban streets.

Edit 1 ; Business review: http://www.businessday.com.au/business/ ... 19m3v.html