[dsula]

So it looks like we got the serious effects of PO postponed, no collapse, die-off, zombies for long time to come as it seems (I remember it was scheduled for Christmas 2008)

1. more oil found than used in 2010
2. tons of NG available
3. high oil prices spur research in all kind of alternatives
4. high oil price spur research and investemnt in oil recovery


What dou you say, we postpone for another 20 or 30 years, and then meet again?

[vtsnowedin]

So it looks like we got the serious effects of PO postponed, no collapse, die-off, zombies for long time to come as it seems (I remember it was scheduled for Christmas 2008)

1. more oil found than used in 2010
2. tons of NG available
3. high oil prices spur research in all kind of alternatives
4. high oil price spur research and investemnt in oil recovery


What dou you say, we postpone for another 20 or 30 years, and then meet again?

1. How much of what was found was actually put on line?
2. How many water supplies were contaminated by fracking?
3. why are oil prices high? could it be a shortage in supply
4. Why are oil prices high? could it be a increase in demand?
You go ahead and go away for twenty years. Well take care of things and make do without you.

[vision-master]

Gas/ oil prices are high due to devaluation of the dollar.

I swear, this place is a cult.

[dolanbaker]

Postponed! yes but not by 20 years, the affects of high oil prices will remain an anchor on economic growth for the foreseeable future simply because there is so much dependency on oil. There is zero chance of a painless transfer to NG and even if there was NG will still eventually peak along with coal. All of these switching to alternatives to oil are expensive, especially if you take into account the reduction in energy density.

Gas is perfect as a heating fuel & coal is good for generating electricity, neither is good for running cars as well as oil.

All we are doing in affect, is changing the consumption ratios, if you assume there is 100 years supply of gas at present consumption and you double or quadruple this then you'll soon find the reserves (in years) fall very rapidly.

[Arthur75]

What would truly postpone PO is the collapse of the US, that would take away around a quarter of the world consumption or the equivalent for 2009 of the consumption of China, Germany, Japan, Russia, and India combined
Sure it would not postpone PO strictly speaking, but its effects for others.

[vision-master]

Will you collapse too?

[ian807]

So it looks like we got the serious effects of PO postponed, no collapse, die-off, zombies for long time to come as it seems (I remember it was scheduled for Christmas 2008)

1. more oil found than used in 2010
2. tons of NG available
3. high oil prices spur research in all kind of alternatives
4. high oil price spur research and investemnt in oil recovery

What dou you say, we postpone for another 20 or 30 years, and then meet again?

Funny, you should mention that timeframe. With about 1.3 trillion barrels of estimated crude and a consumption rate of about 30 billion barrels a year, 30 some odd years would be about right before all the conventional stuff is gone.

The thing is, you'll see the effects of oil depletion long before the oil is gone. We have already seen some of this. The reason oil prices took a sudden jump a few years back is that the Saudis weren't able to simply crank up production keep prices lower. They can't do it now either, at least not quickly, or easily. Throw in Cantarell in Mexico, which is declining with remarkable speed and you have a supply shortage. Speculators saw this and had a party. Hello $4 a gallon gasoline.

Now, 3 years on after the financial crash, oil prices are creeping back up. Some of this is Chinese and Indian demand increases, but 14 years ago, oil was $12 a barrel. Think it's all due to demand? I don't think world demand increased 10-fold since 1997. Do you?

Still, demand isn't declining. The robust Asian economies will see to that for a while, so prices will keep going up. Then what?

When oil demand gets inelastic, and the price stays high, you start the oil price feedback cycle. That's when high oil prices increase the price of everything else including the price of extracting, refining and distributing petroleum products. A high oil price start to feed on itself. We get a quick spike, and a rapid crash as the economy craters (e.g. China's petroleum dependent export economy). Then we recover and do it again, but more quickly, and again, but quicker still.

So the endgame of oil as a significant energy source looks like this. Wildly oscillating prices for perhaps half a dozen shorter and shorter cycles until it's just not profitable to extract significant amounts of oil commercially. NOCs will continue for a while, as will small players, but the BPs and Exxons of the world are due for a big downsizing which will break most of the world's oil supply chain, permanently.

There will still be plenty of oil in the ground, and that's where most of it will stay.

Natural decline starts getting noticeable in 2015-2020 timeframe. Artificial shortages due to terrorism, resource nationalism or international conflict may shorten that, or accelerate the decay already in progress. I'd bet on that.

[Cloud9]

Demand destruction is doing a nice job of pushing the end into the future. Five dollar a gallon gasoline will shut down the under class and push them out of their cars and into scooters. Southern Italy here we come.

[vision-master]

Still, demand isn't declining. The robust Asian economies will see to that for a while, so prices will keep going up. Then what?

New energy sources will be revealed.

[Nefarious]

IEA Oil Market Report

Global oil product demand for 2010 and 2011 is revised up by an average of 320 kb/d on higher-than-expected submissions, reflecting buoyant global economic growth and cold northern hemisphere weather. Global oil demand, assessed at 87.7 mb/d in 2010 (+2.7 mb/d year-on-year), rises by 1.4 mb/d to 89.1 mb/d in 2011.

Global oil supply fell by 0.3 mb/d to 88.1 mb/d in December, as non-OPEC output was reduced, on short-lived outages. An Alaskan pipeline leak and a fire at a Canadian oil sands upgrader also cut January output. Overall, 2010 and 2011 non-OPEC estimates are unchanged at 52.8 mb/d and 53.4 mb/d, respectively. OPEC NGLs contribute 5.3 mb/d in 2010 and 5.8 mb/d in 2011.

OPEC supply gained 250 kb/d to reach 29.58 mb/d in December, continuing a rising trend evident since the spring. In light of stronger demand estimates for 2H10, output in 3Q10 and 4Q10 has been lagging the underlying ‘call’, which is revised up to 29.9 mb/d for 2011. OPEC effective spare capacity has nudged below 5 mb/d for the first time in two years.

November OECD industry stocks declined by 8.3 mb to 2 742 mb, or 58.7 days, led by draws of ‘other products’, middle distillates and residual fuel oil. Preliminary December data indicate OECD industry stocks dropped by a sizeable 33.1 mb and oil in floating storage also fell.

4Q10 and 1Q11 global refinery throughputs have been revised up sharply to average 74.5 mb/d and 74.9 mb/d respectively, in response to stronger than expected global demand on cold weather and better economic performance, compounded by a rapid return from maintenance in the US and Europe. Both 4Q10 and 1Q11 show annual growth above 2 mb/d.

Run out and buy an SUV !!

[Arthur75]

Five dollar a gallon gasoline will shut down the under class and push them out of their cars and into scooters. Southern Italy here we come.

Yeah, maybe you could also keep some measure, five dollars a gallon is still dirt cheap (both in absolute terms for the energy it represents, and also compared to a lot of countries), and your "under class" guy with an old F350 can still move to a 1.2 liters vehicle or something like that, while still living in a country remaining more or less on its feet, instead of subsadizing OPEC princes to the max.

[vision-master]

What's this under class ****? Under who? Tell us, I want all the details.

[ian807]

Still, demand isn't declining. The robust Asian economies will see to that for a while, so prices will keep going up. Then what?

New energy sources will be revealed.

Like..... what? Alien Atlantean vibrating crystalline thingamajigs? Thanks, but I'm not betting on miracles here, or aliens who would care about us any more than we care about an ant colony 4 miles north of town.

[vision-master]

Why would it have to come from aliens? Are we not capable oursleves?

We invented the steam engine didn't we, that didn't come from aliens did it?

[Arthur75]

Why would it have to come from aliens? Are we not capable oursleves?

We invented the steam engine didn't we, that didn't come from aliens did it?

Yes, and the steam engine isn't an energy SOURCE as far as I know, but a piece of energy CONSUMPTION/USAGE equipment.

We KNOW what are the available energy sources, there is no mystery there !!

[Daniel_Plainview]

Still, demand isn't declining. The robust Asian economies will see to that for a while, so prices will keep going up. Then what?

New energy sources will be revealed.

Like..... what? Alien Atlantean vibrating crystalline thingamajigs?

We've got the magical EESTOR ultra-capacitor; we've got the Focardi & Rossi magical energy catalyzer; we've got the magical formic acid battery; and we've got the magical unicorn energy generation system.



These are ultra-secretive, so we can't disclose any specifics ... but rest assured that WE ARE SAVED !!!

[vision-master]

What about the unavailable energy sources? The ones NOT available to us?


Ed Leedskalnin's Coral Castle

"I have discovered the secrets of the pyramids, and have found
out how the Egyptians and the ancient builders in Peru,
Yucatan, and Asia, with only primitive tools, raised and set in
place blocks of stone weighing many tons!"
- Edward Leedskalnin

[Leutnant]

I swear, this place is a cult.

You got to admit there is some problems with unconventional oil and NG,
the most important one in my view is production rate.
You got huge reserves of shale gas (lasting 250 years?), yet we have to wait to 2035 before unconventionals make up 45% of domestic NG production. 45% is great, but how is that gonna allow us to have 250 million cars fueled by NG? And what are going to do in years before 2035?

The same issue with unconventional oil, for example the Bakken field, massive size, 20 billion barrels, yet after 6/7 years of production and tons of money and research, we've only got a pitiful production rate of 350,000 bpd. Maybe we'll get 1 mbd in 2020, according to the oil companies there (who very possibly are talking it up).

And then there is the EROEI factor.

[hillsidedigger]

The peak of oil has not been postponed. World daily production of net-oil will slide more or less steadily from now on.

Few of the upcoming years will there be more oil found than is consumed.

[FarQ3]

I'm sure that there will be more oil found some years than others ... one year maybe 50 billion ... the next maybe none! Oil exploration is a science but it is also very hit and miss and nowadays there's more miss as there's ever been even with better technology. And by MISS I mean uncommercial to produce.

Also bear in mind that if a 50 billion barrel find is booked this is more than likely an inflated figure, not TRULY recoverable. After all, who wants to invest in an oil company with not much stock on the shelf? Not me!