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WEF: The world economy can not 'face major new shocks'

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WEF: The world economy can not 'face major new shocks'

Unread postby Maddog78 » Tue 25 Jan 2011, 12:18:31

I saw this on TV last night.
I figured the doomers on here would love it.
This report says the world is going to need a lot more food, energy and water.




http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12172716

The global economy is "in no position to face major new shocks", according to the World Economic Forum (WEF).

Its Global Risks 2011 report warns that economic imbalances, volatile commodity prices and currencies, and governments' budget shortfalls are "unsustainable".

Rapid population growth is another risk, pushing up demand for food, water and energy by 30-50% by 2030.
The WEF warns that there is no sign of governments agreeing on how to achieve sustainable economic growth worldwide.

The Global Risks report was published in the run-up to the forum's annual meeting in Davos at the end of January, which normally attracts more than 2,000 of the world's top business and political leaders.

Clusters of risk

The report identifies three clusters of risk: the world economy, suffering in the aftermath of the financial crisis and weakened by budget deficits and the cost of ageing populations; the illegal economy driven by corruption, organised crime, illicit trade and failed states; and the every growing demand for resources such as water, food and energy.

The authors, drawn from a global network of business and political leaders, try to map how a single problem in each cluster can quickly escalate and cause a wider crisis affecting other areas.

Continue reading the main story

Start Quote
Both governments and societies are less able than ever to cope with global challenges”
End Quote
Global Risk 2011

World Economic Forum
Robert Greenhill, chief business officer at the WEF, said that while it had taken months for the Wall Street crash of 1929 to affect the rest of the world, it took only minutes for the crash of 2008 to make an impact.

The report speaks of "rapid contagion through increasingly connected systems and the threat of disastrous impacts" on fragmented societies where economic imbalances undermine social cohesion.

With economies weakened by the global financial crisis and government budgets strained by the cost of supporting rapidly ageing populations, "both governments and societies are less able than ever to cope with global challenges," both man-made and natural disasters.

The WEF report, one of the gloomiest in recent years, warns that while nationalism is on the rise, there is also a "growing divergence of opinion between countries on how to promote sustainable, inclusive growth".

The G20 group of leading nations, Mr Greenhill said, had shown "an extraordinary ability to come together in a crisis". But he questioned whether the group would be "able to come together and identify and address a crisis before it happens".

John Drzik, chief executive of consulting group Oliver Wyman and one of the report's contributors, pointed to the volatility of commodity prices as a key threat to both companies and consumers.

The price of coffee was up 77%, corn up 52%, cotton up 84% and palladium up 97% in recent years, with "speculators bringing even more price volatility into the system".

The rapid growth of the world's population, he said, would increase the demand for food by 50%, for water by 30% and energy by 40% during the next two decades.

However, Mr Greenhill also stressed that it was not all gloom. Countries and companies that understood the risks, and came up with solutions to cope with the crisis, would be able to unlock "global opportunities".
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Re: WEF: The world economy can not 'face major new shocks'

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 25 Jan 2011, 13:02:35

The phrase "the long emergency" comes to mind when reading this report. Anyone anticipate some new 1990s style gilded age at the end of this cycle? This is the new-normal, even if we mostly bounce back from the recession, we hit smack dab into peak oil, global warming, and overshoot dooms.
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Re: WEF: The world economy can not 'face major new shocks'

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 25 Jan 2011, 13:21:22

The report speaks of "rapid contagion through increasingly connected systems and the threat of disastrous impacts" on fragmented societies where economic imbalances undermine social cohesion. With economies weakened by the global financial crisis and government budgets strained by the cost of supporting rapidly ageing populations, "both governments and societies are less able than ever to cope with global challenges," both man-made and natural disasters.


The 2008 collapse forced fragile Western economies to bailout bankrupt banks; this, in turn, caused the sovereignties to take on massive amounts of suffocating debt, which has led to a domino effect of contagion where one sovereignty after another is teetering on default and insolvency. Now many of the sovereignties themselves must be bailed out (Greece, Ireland).

However, the underlying health of the Western economies has not improved (unemployment remains double-digit; real estate is collapsing, poverty is rising, etc.), and the government sectors have had to drastically increase their welfare provisions (e.g., US foodstamp usage now tops 43.2 million, while millions are on extended unemployment benefits), causing govt debts to set records. The net result is that Western economies have used up all of their spare ammunition, and any number of exogenous forces could topple the house-of-cards. If interest rates rise, or if oil reaches triple-digits: KABOOM!
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Re: WEF: The world economy can not 'face major new shocks'

Unread postby Sys1 » Tue 25 Jan 2011, 14:04:42

"If interest rates rise, or if oil reaches triple-digits: KABOOM!"

We will have both this year. First oil will go up to 100$ and then they will increase credit rates in order to control inflation. Of course, it won't work as they expect. The economy will go south with oil prices (like what happened in 2008). The difference will be that we will be one more step down.
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Re: WEF: The world economy can not 'face major new shocks'

Unread postby Nefarious » Tue 25 Jan 2011, 14:27:44

Sys1 wrote:"If interest rates rise, or if oil reaches triple-digits: KABOOM!"

We will have both this year. First oil will go up to 100$ and then they will increase credit rates in order to control inflation. Of course, it won't work as they expect. The economy will go south with oil prices (like what happened in 2008). The difference will be that we will be one more step down.


It doesn't seem to take to long to go from one step to the other.
'By the pricking of my thumbs,Something Wicked This Way Comes."
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Re: WEF: The world economy can not 'face major new shocks'

Unread postby careinke » Tue 25 Jan 2011, 14:44:47

The WEF report, one of the gloomiest in recent years, warns that while nationalism is on the rise, there is also a "growing divergence of opinion between countries on how to promote sustainable, inclusive growth".

Sustainable growth is an oxymoron. Every time I hear a politician advocating growth I get this urge to scream "You idiot you are trying to doom us all".
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