Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 04:02:23

Entire hospitals evacuated as Yasi lurks off coast. Yasi is expected to slam in to the coast north of Cairns about 1:00am (AEST) Thursday, bringing damaging winds of up to 280 kilometres per hour.

ABC News

To monitor the cyclone click these automaticly updated links:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/satellite ... rant.shtml

http://www.maplandia.com/australia/quee ... ns/cairns/

If this hits Cairns directly it will make Larry and the recent floods in Brisbane look benign. Yasi is being likened to Katrina. Cairns is nowhere near New Orlean's size, but it has many similar vulnerabilities.
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9285
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby Adelaidewonderer » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 07:26:57

It certainly is a massive cyclone in size, wind speed and potential rainfall (one of the sites says a possible 1000 millimetres in areas).

Oh well, it looks like all these natural disasters should solve Australias greenhouse emmisions. With every levy they will be applying for natural disasters, I wont have any money left to buy petrol or electricity. Not to mention having to pay $10 for a kilo of bananas we had to when cyclone Larry hit.
Adelaidewonderer
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Mon 31 Jan 2011, 23:29:49

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 10:10:35

I thought Australia was going to be this wonderful lush post-peak cornucopia?

Image
mos6507
 

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 10:23:26

Yeah, I know of one couple that started the imigration process from the USA. I bet they changed their minds?
vision-master
 

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 11:00:16

The worse it gets the better it gets for me, I specialise in remote and tropical work, have disaster rescue training/ labouring skills and no property to worry about. It's getting a bit rough for many folk out there though. After nearly a decade of drought, the biggest nation wide floods on record and now perhaps a cyclone to rival Tracy.
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9285
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 17:56:06

Looks nasty:
Image

Yasi may be worst storm in generations. Forecasters expect the storm to generate winds greater than 175 mph and bring up to three feet of rain when it hits the northern coast of tropical Queensland state, making it even stronger than Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005.
(snip)

"This impact is likely to be more life-threatening than any experienced during recent generations," the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said on Wednesday morning.
AU News

From a climate change perspective, going back say a hundred years, is there anything anomalous about this cyclone?
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 18:04:16

mos6507 wrote:I thought Australia was going to be this wonderful lush post-peak cornucopia?


A hurricane / cyclone isn't dangerous as long as you can afford to leave the area. In the US, it's the poor who are trapped -- they can't even scrape together gas and hotel money.

But most hurricanes aren't really dangerous unless you're on a barrier island or in a flood zone. A decently built house can withstand it (usually). Not that I take them lightly.. I've only had one close call and it's no fun being in the house all day with roaring non-stop wind for like fifteen hours, crap flying all over the place, you never know if a tree is gonna come down on you.
Last edited by Sixstrings on Tue 01 Feb 2011, 18:06:41, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 18:13:39

BlinkBlink wrote:The winds from this cyclone might exceed the design capacity of many houses by 100 or so KPH. There will be wide spread destruction.

There will also be a significant storm surge as the cyclone will make landfall at high tide.


Yeah if I were in the cone of something like this I'd book it up to Georgia.

Are people in the area getting out?
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 18:26:09

BlinkBlink wrote:The problem with Cairns is that there is really only one road out and it's a bloody long way from anywhere.


Ah, ok. It's not like you have big interstate highways with populous states nearby. But still.. every bit inland you can get helps, even just an hour or two. These storms start breaking up after landfall, so you just don't want to be close to the water.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 18:38:10

Yasi is a beast of a cyclone. Much bigger than Tracy and really really powerful. A very strong la Nina has helped stoke up the temperatures in the west Pacific region and if AGW does have a role to play then it will be about 0.5C extra sea surface temps. A biggie made bigger.

Little in the way of wind sheer and supposed to hit Mount Isa as a hurricane.

The sugar cane crop is set to be ruined for the year, mines crocked.

Good luck all in her path. Nail everything down and stay safe.
User avatar
dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5193
Joined: Sun 05 Aug 2007, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 18:48:29

Severe Cyclone Yasi has increased to category 5 and intensifying and the pressure has dropped to 920hP

Crossing of the coast is imminent and is being described as the worst cyclone on record. Moving south west and is going to flatten wherever it hits. We are being sent home from work shortly to prepare for the eventual crossing, most likely is around 150km north of my location however the cyclone is 500km wide with a 70km eye.

Nervous times!
vision-master
 

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 19:15:10

BlinkBlink wrote:The winds are expected to reach 320kph (198mph).


198 MPH wind velocity is staggering. YIKES!
User avatar
Daniel_Plainview
Prognosticator
Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4220
Joined: Tue 06 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: 7035 Hollis ... Near the Observatory ... Just down the way, tucked back in the small woods

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 19:40:35

Daniel_Plainview wrote:
BlinkBlink wrote:The winds are expected to reach 320kph (198mph).


198 MPH wind velocity is staggering. YIKES!


Think about the wind a Formula one race driver feels in his face (behind the helmet) on the straight!
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3855
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 10:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 20:02:24

What a beast.

Stay safe folks.
User avatar
dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5193
Joined: Sun 05 Aug 2007, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby scas » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 21:08:53

These storms are a taste of whats to become the norm. And of course, the future oceans will hold even more energy.
scas
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 487
Joined: Tue 02 Nov 2010, 06:39:52

Re: Cyclone Yasi Watch Thread: Disaster at the Door

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 21:16:05

There are 3 escape roads to the hills.

The main one goes from suburban Cairns, Smithfield, to Kuranda then on to Mareebah. This is a good road, 20 minute drive over the ridge, an hour or so to Mareebah. However anybody planning to take that route better do it before the wind gets up to 100kmh, because this will certainly knock trees all over the road well before causeways overflow or landslides occur.

The next closest leaves the coastal highway near Port Douglas, about 45 minutes drive north, then inland to Mareebah another half hour. It has the same vulnerabilities as the Kuranda road.

The next closest is behind Innisfail and goes up through Millaa Millaa, Malanda and on to Atherton.
Same vulnerabilities and an hour further south of Cairns.

There are no roads inland for another 300km or so in either direction. Cooktown highway will be blocked by flooding for sure. The road inland from Townsville to Charters Towers is vulnerable to flooding in many sections. Townsville is similar in size to Cairns, about 350km south and only has one exit road inland.

The main Bruce Highway, the coastal road, is the arterial connection to Cairns. It will definitely be blocked for days after this; probably in hundreds of places between Port Douglas and Townsville.

Having lived in that area for several years I would be heading for Atherton, or Mareebah, the 2 biggest towns in the mountains behind Cairns. There is in all probabilty almost nothing in Cairns built to withstand this size storm, it will be smashed to pieces in a direct hit. Houses there, unlike Darwin, usually do NOT have a bomb shelter with steel lined concrete walls. Cyclone Tracy taught Darwin a lesson in 1974 which Queensland has so far never had to face.
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9285
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00

Next

Return to Australia & New Zealand Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests