[bratticus]

Rotary Hears Facts on Oil
Berkeley Daily Gazette - Mar 9, 1944 - Second Section
Speaking before the Berkeley Rotary Club, on America's oil supply now and what it is expected to be in the future, Lester C. Uren, professor of petroleum engineering, college of mining, University of California, emphasized that our present rate of consumption will deplete our oil reserve in a comparatively short period of time if we don't find new oil to replace what we are using.

Uren explained that although we have reached an all-time peak of oil production during the war, the demand is expected to be as great during peace time as it is at present. Due to restrictions on steel allotments, rise in production costs, manpower shortage, and other factors, the situation, Uren stated, is no expected to improve within the near future. In fact, he explained, an even more drastic curtailment of civilian consumption is expected within the next few months.

"We are drawing heavily on our reserves," Uren stated, "approximately 20 billion barrels, roughly, 13 years supply. We are dependent upon recurrent discoveries of new reserves, but no one can say to what extent they exist and it has become more costly to find those that remain."

Many fuel economists, according to Uren, believe that synthetic oils must supply a great part of our needs and experimentation research is being extensively carried out by many large companies.

Prof. Uren was introduced by Carl Fox, chairman of the day. Club singing was led by W. H. "Hatch" Woolsey, accompanied at the piano, and President Ellis A. Stokdyk.

[bratticus]

Three little words: older than Hubbert.

[dolanbaker]

One of the "peak oil" gotchas, reporting an expected exhaustion date without considering exploration and advances in extraction techniques.

It of course means that we have to keep a weather eye on things that could postpone the current 2014 predictions.
It's a case of when the maximum production is reached of course, or more importantly when the decline becomes unstoppable.

[ian807]

Interesting. Not particularly relevant to today's situation but interesting.

Odd assumptions. The author seems to predict no technological advances - which is the other way to fail a prediction. There are always advances, albeit with increasingly diminished returns since the low hanging fruit are picked first. To my knowledge, nobody know about diminishing returns from technology back then, something any modern engineer would understand off the top of his head. Engineering must have been quite different back then.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Three little words: older than Hubbert.

So you're suggesting that he was the first person to publicly mention the topic of "peak oil"? I'm sure there was someone earlier. At the end of the day, peak oil is such an obvious, inevitable concept that anyone who has a basic understanding of geology will logically and invariably come to accept it as fact.

[americandream]

Rotary Hears Facts on Oil
Berkeley Daily Gazette - Mar 9, 1944 - Second Section
Speaking before the Berkeley Rotary Club, on America's oil supply now and what it is expected to be in the future, Lester C. Uren, professor of petroleum engineering, college of mining, University of California, emphasized that our present rate of consumption will deplete our oil reserve in a comparatively short period of time if we don't find new oil to replace what we are using.
... Many fuel economists, according to Uren, believe that synthetic oils must supply a great part of our needs and experimentation research is being extensively carried out by many large companies. ...

Uren, of course, being an American, was removed from the pearls of opportunity that lay hidden in the British Empire. And so the post war special relationship was born.

The next great white hope of course, lies off planet. Whether we can get there in time will be a fascinating bit of real time capitalist 11th hour.

[bratticus]

Three little words: older than Hubbert.

So you're suggesting that he was the first person to publicly mention the topic of "peak oil"? I'm sure there was someone earlier.

It is the earliest record online. If that is not so, present a link that demonstrates it.

[mattduke]

We are like tenant farmers chopping down the fence around our house for fuel when we should be using Natures inexhaustible sources of energy — sun, wind and tide. ... I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.

Thomas Edison, 1931. Don't know if that counts.
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Thomas_Edison