[evilgenius]

The earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster that has struck Japan has seemingly been enough for those poor souls. These things have, however, taken place against the backdrop of peak oil and financial crisis. Japan is not a resource rich country. They have so many nuclear plants because those have been an answer to resource scarcity. The nuclear disaster is bound to make them at least question that answer. What other answers will they seek?

Here is a poll with some possibilities. Please vote for your choice or suggest something else.

[evilgenius]

Moderator please delete double posting. I refreshed in the middle of an eternal hang.

[Outcast_Searcher]

IF the nuclear situation in Japan becomes really bad (MAJOR environmental catastrophe) on top of everything else, it seems to me they are well and truly screwed. Because, IMO:

1). Their debt situation is the catastrophe ours is headed towards in a decade or so if we don't fix things, so the massive investment they need to make is HIGHLY problematic.

2). As evilgenius said, they are not a resource rich country, to the point of being quite resource poor. This includes space. So even if they had the money and the will, it's not like they have the room or resources to use green alternatives to amply supply their 179 million people with energy in any reasonable timeframe.

3). Speaking of resources, they are a seriously aging population. I suspect this demographic trend in fact has been much of their issue since 1990 (and it's what much of the first world has to look forward to -- though massive immigration might spare some countries like the U.S. part of that issue). This just makes their economic plight that much worse. BTW, their highly insular culture and physical isolation make any prospect of major young immigration relief for this seem highly improbable.

. . .

Their position looks so tough, that it makes the U.S. position look startling easy in comparison, IMO. If you just get people to compromise a little, work together a little, give a little comsumption courtesy of Uncle Sam up on average, give a little more to Uncle Sam on average (taxes), and actually prioritize and LIMIT how much government actually does -- it's solvable in a decade or two.

Pretty frustrating sitting here knowing it will NEVER happen until the situation is dire enough to scare most people into cooperating. By then, we could be worse off than Japan.

Meanwhile, consistent with this point, I see the GOP wants to start another war in Libya (called a no-fly zone initially), whether the rest of the world agrees or not and whether we can afford it or not, and calls Obama names since he doesn't agree -- and the dems act like cutting ANYTHING from the Obama pork-inflated $1.6T budget deficit is a catastrophe. Yeah, working together...

[Loki]

3). Speaking of resources, they are a seriously aging population. I suspect this demographic trend in fact has been much of their issue since 1990 (and it's what much of the first world has to look forward to -- though massive immigration might spare some countries like the U.S. part of that issue). This just makes their economic plight that much worse. BTW, their highly insular culture and physical isolation make any prospect of major young immigration relief for this seem highly improbable.

Hmmm, I'll take Japan's ~5% unemployment and no immigration vs. our ~10% unemployment and massive, unsustainable immigration. Economic stagnation or not. Explosive perpetual growth is not the answer, it's just another problem. The root of most environmental problems in fact. We'd do well to follow Japan's example when it comes to immigration and population stabilization.

As for the OP, I have no clue. My magic 8 ball says......."Cannot predict now." Guess I'll have to try again later.

I can say that Japan is not just going to roll over and die. They are an industrial powerhouse with a disciplined, functional culture and a highly educated, technically savvy population. They ain't Haiti. They'll rebuild. I hope they decide to put more resources into renewables----I doubt they'll be building a bunch more nukes any time soon.

[eXpat]

Japan is being transformed right now in a nuclear wasteland. There´s no recovery from that. An economy that was already in decline has suffered the impact of the biggest earthquake ever recorded there, a monstrous tsunami and now nuclear facilities spreading radiation. That´s too many blows.
Before they capitulate and flee from the island they will try to keep their economy by dumping the us bonds. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

[Loki]

Japan is being transformed right now in a nuclear wasteland. There´s no recovery from that.

Umm, they did it 65 years ago. Just sayin'.....

[eXpat]

Japan is being transformed right now in a nuclear wasteland. There´s no recovery from that.

Umm, they did it 65 years ago. Just sayin'.....

Fair enough Loki , I just don´t think is a valid comparison though, the world is different from the 45´s, just the insurance claims for the damage suffered by the quake and the tsunami go up to £22bn (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8380422/Global-insurers-fall-on-estimated-22bn-Japan-earthquake-claims-bill.html), to rebuild all that is an herculean task, an to lift their economy to their previous splendor, they have to compete with the Chinese, would they surpass China's Powerhouse economy? I don´t think so.
Besides with the nuclear crisis just getting started, if you were japanese, you woudn´t have to mind living in radioactive ground, with the cancer, leukemia, etc. that comes along. The modern japanese is not the farmer that would toil barren soil anymore just because his emperor says so. Just like the modern American is not like the resilient one that lived through the depression or the european from WWII, IMHO.

[gollum]

I know things are really bad, the bankers are leaving......

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42109096

[timmac]

Japan is being transformed right now in a nuclear wasteland. There´s no recovery from that.

Umm, they did it 65 years ago. Just sayin'.....

More like we did it for them 65 years ago [money that is], however we can't even get New Orleans back to normal I hope they don't expect America to the rescue again..

[papa moose]

As they are so resource poor and cramped on their little archipelago a possible "out" would be for them to rent some land in Sth Korea, China or Siberia (Mongolia?) a kin to the renting of Hong Kong by the british.
They could use the land either for renewables or latest generation nukes with subsea cables bringing the electricity across to Japan.
Actually being so technically savvy they could completely ignore that suggestion and focus on offshore tidal power gen, a whole string of them along the east coast of Japan?
Money is of course their issue.
I don't think their aging demographic is the root cause but rather a symptom of their culture/immigration policy.
If 3rd world workers are willing to relocate to the Gulf and places like Lybia for work i am sure they would be just as happy to work in Japan if they were allowed and there was money to pay them.

[evilgenius]

As they are so resource poor and cramped on their little archipelago a possible "out" would be for them to rent some land in Sth Korea, China or Siberia (Mongolia?) a kin to the renting of Hong Kong by the british.
They could use the land either for renewables or latest generation nukes with subsea cables bringing the electricity across to Japan.
Actually being so technically savvy they could completely ignore that suggestion and focus on offshore tidal power gen, a whole string of them along the east coast of Japan?
Money is of course their issue.
I don't think their aging demographic is the root cause but rather a symptom of their culture/immigration policy.
If 3rd world workers are willing to relocate to the Gulf and places like Lybia for work i am sure they would be just as happy to work in Japan if they were allowed and there was money to pay them.

I was talking with a friend of mine the other day about tidal power. Japan seems perfect for it because they have a coast that is long and land which is narrow. The usual complaint about how far can that electricity be transferred before the resistance in the lines severely hampers their ability to make tidal generation efficient doesn't seem to apply. With some investment and research they might be able to make it work.

[Cog]

After the hysteria dies down, the business of nuclear power will return to normal. Whether Japan can survive the economic costs of all this is another matter.

[radon]

As they are so resource poor and cramped on their little archipelago a possible "out" would be for them to rent some land in Sth Korea, China or Siberia (Mongolia?) a kin to the renting of Hong Kong by the british.

There is historically a degree of animosity between Japan and South Korea and China. The latter two are also among the poorest countries in terms of agri-land on a per capita basis. Mongolia is less so, but it is landlocked and has a challenging climate. Siberia... Russia once leased Alaska to the US and has never seen it back since then. After the Japanese earthquake, one prominent Russian politician proposed to introduce mass immigration policies for the Japanese willing to settle in Russia. He is known both for his shrewdness and for his often outlandish remarks. New challenges require new approaches.

[davep]

It's a good thing the Japanese didn't invest in tidal power.

Not all tidal power technology requires the use of barrages. There are cheaper submersed options that could be replaced in the event of a tsunami.

[steaveford]

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[Cog]

Really, The Japan is transformed into a nuclear wasteland. There is no recovery from it. An economy that was already in decline has suffered the impact of the largest earthquake ever recorded there, a huge tsunami and now nuclear installations spread radiation.

Actually radiation levels all over Japan are dropping. So much for that doom scenario.

[Margarethe]

Perhaps being on the receiving end of international aid will bring about a fresh perspective.