[Narz]

Here's the leading causes of death right now in the United States :

Cause

Percent of Total
1. Diseases of the heart
28.5
2. Malignant tumors (cancer) 22.8
3. Cerebrovascular diseases 6.7
4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases 5.1
5. Accidents (unintentional injuries) 4.4
6. Diabetes mellitus 3.0
7. Influenza and pneumonia 2.7
8. Alzheimer's disease 2.4
9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis 1.7
10. Septicemia (blood poisoning) 1.4
11. Suicide 1.3
12. Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis 1.1
13. Primary hypertension and hypertensive renal disease 0.8
14. Parkinson's disease (tied) 0.7
15. Homicide (tied) 0.7

Source: CDC/NHS, National Vital Statistics System

What do you think will be the leading causes of death in the future?

[Plantagenet]

What do you think will be the leading causes of death in the future?

Thats easy. Sword wounds, axe cuts, arrow piercings, spear impalements---things like that.

[Pretorian]

don't forget syphilis and flu

[Oakley]

Starvation, infectious diseases, suicide, and deaths from war (civil or international).

[Novus]

Starvation will be #1 by a large margin (over population + climate change = mega doom here )
Infections Disease will be #2
Exposure will be #3
Murder + Warfare #4
Old age if we are lucky (Babyboomers finally croak)

[Lore]

Too easy a survey... Starvation by a long mile followed by transmittable disease.

Historically, more people have died as a result of infectious disease then war.

[Pretorian]

by starvation you mean, of course, all kinds of malnutrition and vitamin/mineral/protein deficits, not starvation per se

[Fishman]

I think infectous disease by a wide margin. Starvation will be high as transport of food to high need areas will be tough, but, as bad as this sounds, many will already have starved. Average person can go about 30 days with no food, maybe 12 months with dramaticly reduced calories before infection takes them out. The oil curve is realy everything. Flat and the calories drop slowly worldwide, with marginal nutritional populations first, less meat for the rest of the world. Populations stabilize, less cardiovascular disease. Drop in the curve, starvation skyrockets quickly. Everyhing depends on where we are on the curve in 2030, 2050.

[Lore]

You could use the Irish potato famine of 1740–1741 as an example, in which they lost nearly 25% of the population, or 1 million to starvation and a million to emigration. It’s believed more people actually died of disease though as the result of malnutrition and social dislocation.

[Narz]

So, for the record, are you guys saying starvation, murder, suicide, whooping cough, etc. by 2030 or 2050?

[mos6507]

In the US, people will get poor before they starve. Poor people won't receive proper medical care. That will increase the death rate. We're a fat, sick, and aging country. This is why the health-care debate is so pivotal, and why people keep running around screaming about "socialism" and how terrible it is to keep extending the social safety net. To some extent, those people realize that we're on a downslope and that people who have been pushed out of the American dream are probably permanent dead-wood as far as the (now stagnant, eventually shrinking) formal economy goes. So they want to hold onto their winnings in the game of musical chairs. I think modern health-care for all is a byproduct of energy surplus, and will be the initial casualty of peak oil, as the downslope makes people poorer and poorer.

My dad, at his post-retirement age, works for a living for no other reason than to maintain his health-care. My parents' health will plummet after both of them are no longer able to work. I don't think their retirement benefits will come close to taking care of them. That's today. God forbid what things will be like when I reach retirement age, assuming I make it that far. The stress hormones of doom floating around my body in the last half decade have already taken a huge toll on my physiology.

[Timo]

The actual method of death is far less important, in my mind, than the predominant cause of death, which, as we're starting to see now is an increase of resource wars. As the resources we need to fuel our non-negotiable way of life become harder to get, we, and everyone else who's after those same resources will start fighting each other in the lands where those resources happen to be. This might expand, actually, to wars on each other's soverign territory in addition to the location of the physical resources we're fighting over. Spin-offs from these wars will be famine, disease, radiation, and the like, but the predominant "cause" will be the scrapping over oil, and rare earths, and lithium. All of these factors figure in to the Drake Equation. Also, factor in the exponential growth in population and the death of vast ecosystems across the globe, and the future looks awfully bright. But, hey, it's Monday. I'm usually optomistinc about such things on Mondays.

[Revi]

Don't forget dysentery. It doesn't even show up in the list above, but it's a huge killer in the global south. We built water tanks to prevent it in Guatemala in the 80's. As people have to drink dirtier water the incidence of dysentery will increase. It kills a lot of children.

[dinopello]

Malnutrition which then leads to a whole host of more direct causes of death. Many of the current leading causes of death are induced or aided by malnutrition. The big ones where there is almost no linkage to malnution are traffic accidents, hereditary conditions and very virulent diseases (e.g. HIV). I think we will see less traffic deaths

[lper100km]

May as well add radiation. There are enough nuke stations spread around the north hemisphere to pose a real threat in a societal breakdown. Could become as common as bank failures in the great depression.

[PrestonSturges]

Feeding AGW deniers to the sharks. In Tennessee.

[Tyler_JC]

Mass starvation in the US in 2030? Give me a break.

GDP per capita is around $47K in the US.

Lithuania has a per capita GDP of only $16K.

Living standards are obviously lower in Lithuania than the US but is starvation common? Dysentery? Cholera?

Colombia's per capita GDP is under $10K. Colombia's average life expectancy is 74 compared to 78 in the US.

Peak oil won't cause starvation in the US.

[Loki]

I imagine the list may be similar but some things may be more prevalent. I'd guess more:

Accidents
Influenza and pneumonia
Suicide
Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis
Homicide

Mass starvation in the US is highly improbable. More likely would be degradation of our public health and sanitation systems, leading to worsening of food and water contamination problems and associated health effects.

Either that or it'll be sword and arrow wounds, as Planty said.

[Crazy_Dad]

2030:

Starvation
Homicide
Suicide
State death squads
exposure
thirst

2050:

The above plus Cannibalistic Homicide

[mos6507]

Colombia's per capita GDP is under $10K. Colombia's average life expectancy is 74 compared to 78 in the US.

What would Columbia's life expectancy be if its GDP remained under $10K but we had $300 oil that's quickly taking away our energy slaves? I think a lot of things would fall apart. So while yes, we have a long way down, you can't make these sorts of apples and oranges comparisons.

I mean seriously, this is the sort of post I'd expect from John Denver, not a mod.