[joewp]

Recently YouTube granted me the ability to upload videos longer than 15 minutes, just because I'm a nice guy or something, I guess.
I wasted no time in posting Dr. Bartlett's famous lecture, in the version that I prefer that is rare on line.

So I thought I'd share it here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOrvGDRLT7A

[Newfie]

Thanks, I have seen it before but this is a better format.

For anyone who has NOT seen this I highly recommend it. I can be life changing. And it is just so elemental and common sense.

Impossible to refute.

Cheers.

[mos6507]

The demographic-shifters do refute it. Whether you buy the refutation is up to you. Certainly the biosphere has already told us in no uncertain terms that we're in overshoot even if we just stay at 7 billion, let alone the 10 that we're projected to reach not long from now.

[Newfie]

I don't know what a 'demographic-shifter' is but the math is simple. I suspect the 'demographic-shifters' are simple too.

[furrybill]

Being the rabid tree-hugger that I am this is the reason why I see the coming Doom as having a silver lining. Post-Peak, global warming, debt problems, concentration of wealth in fewer and fewer hands, you name it. It all adds up to lots of people dying, hopefully in the billions. There'll probably be quite a bit of environmental damage in the short-term as people try to feed and heat themselves, but in the long term a significant die-off will be a boon to Mother Earth...

[Pretorian]

Yes it will be pretty good. And the sooner the better. As long as I get a hiding spot somewhere safe, that is.

[Oakley]

Yes it will be pretty good. And the sooner the better. As long as I get a hiding spot somewhere safe, that is.

Strange how our minds work. Ron Paul commented a few days ago that people come to his office to tell them they support balancing the federal budget, but beg him not to cut the programs that affect them.

Although Dr. Bartlett does not address negative growth rates, just like positive growth rates have doubling periods, negative growth rates have halving periods. If oil production declines at 3.5% is will be half in 20 years. Since oil producers have pulled rabbits out of hats (nitrogen or salt water injection, slant drilling) to accelerate production, I expect that the decline rate, when it comes, will be greater than the Hubbert curve would predict, maybe even double digits. Imagine if the decline rate turns out to be 10% which would produce a 7 year halving period; that would not be a pretty picture.

[Pretorian]

Yes it will be pretty good. And the sooner the better. As long as I get a hiding spot somewhere safe, that is.

Strange how our minds work. Ron Paul commented a few days ago that people come to his office to tell them they support balancing the federal budget, but beg him not to cut the programs that affect them.

You think that is strange? Now that's strange! That's 101 of human nature. Wouldn't you throw off a cliff somebody else if you could and if it would fix the problem? And if you wouldn't, may I ask you to come a bit closer toward me.. closer.. closer...

PS I at least am willing to roll my dice--with precautions , of course, but I am willing.

[joewp]

Being the rabid tree-hugger that I am this is the reason why I see the coming Doom as having a silver lining. Post-Peak, global warming, debt problems, concentration of wealth in fewer and fewer hands, you name it. It all adds up to lots of people dying, hopefully in the billions. There'll probably be quite a bit of environmental damage in the short-term as people try to feed and heat themselves, but in the long term a significant die-off will be a boon to Mother Earth...

Which is why George Carlin says don't worry about the planet, the planet is fine. The people are fucked. I'm not sure I want to be around when billions start to die off within a few decades. It's not going to be much fun for the survivors either, if there are any.

Prof. Bartlett has been doing this presentation for over 30 years. It seems nothing has changed in spite of the overwhelming evidence that constant growth in a finite environment is impossible. It seems that all we can do is sit back and enjoy our popcorn while it all unravels.

[Pretorian]

Over 30 years?! So now, with your help, its the end of his gig?

But seriously what would you choose from that list on the right to put the numbers down? I mean there is no some magic flu, all things are pretty groovy there.

[Ayoob]

Back to the Gorge, in ten years or less.

[americandream]

The demographic-shifters do refute it. Whether you buy the refutation is up to you. Certainly the biosphere has already told us in no uncertain terms that we're in overshoot even if we just stay at 7 billion, let alone the 10 that we're projected to reach not long from now.

At which point, another 3 billion will be consuming at our levels and the planet will really be a cesspit.

[kiwichick]

from populationmatters.org

http://populationmatters.org/attenborough-rsa-speech/

[Newfie]

Slight problem with link.

http://populationmatters.org/attenboroughs-rsa-speech/

[mos6507]

Which is why George Carlin says don't worry about the planet, the planet is fine.

If by planet you mean the rocks, sure. If you mean the rest of life on the planet, George was a little overly optimistic, because as we go down, we're taking a huge percentage of complex life down the tubes with us, which is far more of a tragedy than just us "going away" as he calls it.

I don't see the earth becoming some neo-Eden for Bambi and Thumper with 6'+ of warming, etc... It will be a lot of single-celled life and some bugs and probably little else, and considering that the sun is middle-aged, I doubt anything much more interesting would crawl the surface before it's game over.

[Newfie]

Well, he was trying to make a point. Which he did. Can you think of anyone who was more succesful at making the same point to the general audience?