[copious.abundance]

That's the EIA's estimate of the technically recoverable amount of shale gas in 48 major shale gas basins in 32 countries.

And it doesn't even include Russia, parts of eastern Europe, large portions of Asia (including the Middle East) and most of Africa!

CLICKY

Abundance - what a concept!

[Outcast_Searcher]

6.6+ quadrillion cubic feet. That's a lot!

That should certainly provide a BRIDGE between oil cost/depletion issues and green tech. Data like this, which seems to balance other issues like AGW, is why I remain a moderate, despite frequent displays of massive human stupidity.

Of course, now I guess PSTARR can tell us, once again, how it is impossible to use natural gas as a transportion fuel, since it would be somewhat less convenient than BAU with oil.

[meemoe_uk]

6622*10^12 / ( world annual consumption = 120*10^12 ) = 55.2 years supply at 2010 consumption rate.

[Sys1]

"technically recoverable"

I highlight this part because peak oil is not about how much oil is left but how much oil is cheap, aka with an EROEI largely superior to 1.
It's pretty weird that we have on this site old members posting again and again newb threads. If they really think oil is plentyfull and GW is an hoax, I can't even get why they waste their precious time on a conspiracy site like peak oil. They should just get in their SUV and start driving around here and there in Wallmarts, buying junk food and watching Hollywood movies with 3D glasses.
This crazy assumption of 55 years of oil (meaning for Joe Sixpack that everything will be fine for the next 54 years) is far more dangerous than admitting that our economy is already doomed. There is not any more such thing as business as usual.

[joewp]

55 years at today's consumption rate... of course everybody is expecting that to grow somewhat, I would imagine.

Well, if you have steady growth in the rate of consumption of that natgas, this is what will happen:

At 1 percent growth the resource will last : 44 years
At 2 percent growth the resource will last : 37 years
At 3 percent growth the resource will last : 33 years
At 4 percent growth the resource will last : 30 years
At 5 percent growth the resource will last : 27 years
At 6 percent growth the resource will last : 25 years
At 7 percent growth the resource will last : 23 years
At 8 percent growth the resource will last : 22 years
At 9 percent growth the resource will last : 21 years
At 10 percent growth the resource will last : 20 years

So just 5% growth per year will halve the time that resource will be exhausted.

Of course, we know you can't pump it all out at ever increasing rates, so that can't happen. We know it will peak at about half that time and start to go down.

In light of these plain facts, OF2 just seems so shrill, doesn't he?

[vision-master]

This thread has a funny odor to it?

[Keith_McClary]

Wow! It's all over the place!

spread very thinly.

Compared to conventional O&G, which is concentrated in a few tiny patches:

It's called:


or:

[americandream]

That's the EIA's estimate of the technically recoverable amount of shale gas in 48 major shale gas basins in 32 countries.

And it doesn't even include Russia, parts of eastern Europe, large portions of Asia (including the Middle East) and most of Africa!

CLICKY

Abundance - what a concept!

If this is true, one would reasonably be expecting to see some unwinding of the many long positions in oil in due course, as in by the end of the year at the latest, and oil settling in some long term trading range.

If this does not transpire, these assets are cleary not tenable.

[copious.abundance]

If this is true, one would reasonably be expecting to see some unwinding of the many long positions in oil in due course, as in by the end of the year at the latest, and oil settling in some long term trading range.

If this does not transpire, these assets are cleary not tenable.

This is natural gas, not oil.

[copious.abundance]

55 years at today's consumption rate... of course everybody is expecting that to grow somewhat, I would imagine.

[...]

In light of these plain facts, OF2 just seems so shrill, doesn't he?

In light of the actual facts, it appears joewp doesn't have the facts correct. From the link:

Fact #1: 2009 Natural Gas Market - Consumption: 106.7 Tcf
Fact #2: Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources (in basins studied): 6,622 Tcf
Fact #3: Proved Natural Gas Reserves: 6,609 Tcf

There is probably some overlap of "proved reserves" with the "technically recoverable shale gas resources," particularly in the US and Canada, but in the rest of the world the shale gas phenomenon is in its baby stages, or not even started at all. So you first do:

6,622 + 6,609 = 13,231 Tcf total resources. Maybe round it down to 13,000 Tcf to take into account the fact that much of the proved reserves in the US and Canada is already included in the technically recoverable shale gas resources. So you get . . .

13,000 / 106.7 = 121.8 years of consumption at 2009 rates.

But we're not done. Notice the map from the document which Keith posted above: There are large areas of the world which were not assessed, including known hydrocarbon-rich areas such as the Middle East and Russia. So the 13,000 Tcf and 121.8 years is conservative. Bump up those numbers to take into account the un-assessed geography, and then you can realistically do your little exercise taking into account increased consumption rates.

Now, who is the shrill?

[americandream]

If this is true, one would reasonably be expecting to see some unwinding of the many long positions in oil in due course, as in by the end of the year at the latest, and oil settling in some long term trading range.

If this does not transpire, these assets are cleary not tenable.

This is natural gas, not oil.

Which is why I used the adjective "some" oil longs. I would expect verification for any substantial additions to the energy asset base to be seen, very visibly, in oil, by in effect imposing a resistance ceiling (not reversal of trend) on its current climb, as it must. Anything less would signify a fizzle in prospects.

[CuriousCarl]

Forget fossil fuels fellas. The future of energy is Thorium. A clean green nuclear fuel that is even more abundant than natural gas, and provides 200 times the energy as uranium with ZERO emissions and ZERO chance of a meltdown. 8 tablespoons of Thorium can power an average home for 50 plus years at less than half the cost of what an average American family spends on gasoline. For more on Thorium check out this link or google it.

http://www.ans.org/pi/ps/docs/ps78.pdf

What's really sad is that our government has acknowledged Thorium as a preferred fuel since 1959, but never pursued it because it cannot be used to make atomic weapons! And we have the nerve to chastize Iran and other countries for the same thing we have already done ourselves! The good news is that every nuclear reactor that uses dangerous uranium can be converted to use Thorium in less than one week. Thorium is half the cost of Uranium and 600 times more plentiful. But sorry, can't use it to kill people - damn!

[americandream]

Forget fossil fuels fellas. The future of energy is Thorium. A clean green nuclear fuel that is even more abundant than natural gas, and provides 200 times the energy as uranium with ZERO emissions and ZERO chance of a meltdown. 8 tablespoons of Thorium can power an average home for 50 plus years at less than half the cost of what an average American family spends on gasoline. For more on Thorium check out this link or google it.

http://www.ans.org/pi/ps/docs/ps78.pdf

What's really sad is that our government has acknowledged Thorium as a preferred fuel since 1959, but never pursued it because it cannot be used to make atomic weapons! And we have the nerve to chastize Iran and other countries for the same thing we have already done ourselves! The good news is that every nuclear reactor that uses dangerous uranium can be converted to use Thorium in less than one week. Thorium is half the cost of Uranium and 600 times more plentiful. But sorry, can't use it to kill people - damn!

If the private sector could have turned a decent dollar from it, it would have been harnessed and developed. I can think of many energy projects that went to capitalsation and flopped for simply being unworkeable in practice. Investor equity invariably flushed down the drain paying for lavish offices and perks.

[Frank]

If someone can figure out how to extract that shale gas w/o poisoning water and generating so much pollution then maybe we're onto a decent transition fuel. However, as Josh Fox ("Gasland") puts it so eloquently (I'm paraphrasing): "it's a desperation move - getting gas by breaking rocks". Even if there really is 100+ years total supply I suspect oil will peter out before then and with growth in the 5+%/year range we still only have a couple of generations worth of the stuff. Oh yeah, what's the EROEI anyway?

The fossil fuel age is OVER folks - today or 40 years from now, it doesn't much matter. The sooner we transition the better. Yes I know that life will change, but it's going to happen if we plan for it or not - your choice...

[Keith_McClary]

Now, who is the shrill?

You're certainly shrill. (Perhaps you mean "shill".)

How many square feet are the coloured blobs on the eia map above?
How many feet between drilling locations?
How many feet of gas pipeline, access road and water pipe to connect them all?

I don't think wars will be fought over this stuff.

[kildred590]

6622*10^12 / ( world annual consumption = 120*10^12 ) = 55.2 years supply at 2010 consumption rate

Not that much though,cos you have to use quite a lot of that oil to extract and refine the oil in the first place.
I think it's about 1 barrel of oil to get 3 barrels ; 2 net. So it's two-thirds of that figure (35 years approx ?)

[Serial_Worrier]

So we've got a few decades worth before exhaustion. Why the joy OF2?

[seenmostofit]

So we've got a few decades worth before exhaustion. Why the joy OF2?

I think he was only talking about the shale gas. In the US. There is plenty more regular conventional natural gas, shale gas in other places, and then the gas hydrates as well. So we'll all be dead and gone before natural gas has the same type of running out problem that oil production has.

[Lore]

So we've got a few decades worth before exhaustion. Why the joy OF2?

I think he was only talking about the shale gas. In the US. There is plenty more regular conventional natural gas, shale gas in other places, and then the gas hydrates as well. So we'll all be dead and gone before natural gas has the same type of running out problem that oil production has.

It doesn't run out, like oil, it just becomes too expensive to obtain. The cost of extraction goes ever higher as the energy and resources used go up in price or become unavailable. Also, as the energy itself becomes more ubiquitous in use the market constraints of supply and demand will also increase the price.