[Pops]

Saudi Arabia expects its oil production to hold steady at an average 8.7 million b/d to 2015, rising to 10.8 million b/d by 2030 and leaving the kingdom with 1.5 million b/d of spare production capacity, a senior Saudi oil official said in a research paper released Wednesday.

Platts
H/T http://ckm3.blogspot.com/ {a great blog}

I couldn't find the actual report

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-ar ... 95422.html

[Lore]

So, who is going to make up for the yearly 5% short fall as a result of the depletion rate? If the IEA projects 106 million barrels a day requirement by 2030, where will this come from? Tar Sands and Shale?

I hear the oil drums of doom!

[eXpat]

So, who is going to make up for the yearly 5% short fall as a result of the depletion rate? If the IEA projects 106 million barrels a day requirement by 2030, where will this come from? Tar Sands and Shale?

I hear the oil drums of doom!

Fear not, not only we have tar sands and shale at our disposal, we have too other resources such as abiotic oil and perpetual motion machines.
Everything is going to be just fine.

[Pops]

From the same story that I'm still digesting...
Here is ELM sometime between now and 2030...

"If this rate of growth continues in line with economic and population growth as well as demand for power generation, water and transport, then a larger proportion of production will be directed gradually toward meeting domestic demand, which is rising at a higher rate than expected average output growth, which will reduce the volume available for export," Moneef said.

This should put an end to the argument about their spare capacity because it's a moot point and really whether they have peaked or not is moot as well - whether it was 09 or 05 or 70-whatever I wouldn't hold my breath for 9.5 mb/d ever again.

Seems like a good plan from their standpoint - we're gonna pump 8-whatever till we need more ourselves. Let someone else be yer swing producer, if you can't pay the freight do without, whacha gonna do aboud-it?

[Serial_Worrier]

Guys, methane hydrates..... Who cares if we trigger the runaway global warming gun and become Venus? We must use fossil fuels at ALL costs!

[dinopello]

This article points out the unreliability of the production numbers from Saudi.

Although it seems to me the export amount over time would be easy to estimate from the tanker traffic.

[Sys1]

Well, it's obviously a statement in order to calm markets regarding oil. Speculation magnify oil scarcity just like an ecotax that kills faster our industrial way of life while Saudis don't earn a penny on it. "Mainstream, senior official, Saudi Arabia, plenty of oil".
All those words are here to tilt the good part of our brain.

They are scared by what is on the way. We have passed peak oil, that's why world economy is going down in flammes. They desperately try to earn time to achieve something we don't know (like a Dubai nuclear vault or some kind of new world order involving slaverism as a way to repay debt... Who knows).
IMHO, they currently trying to figure out a plan out of this mess.

[Pops]

Looking at Stanifords chart with 3 sources, the OPEC number looks like it is usually around the combined average, IEA is always higher and EIA is usually lower and usually IEA/EIA are quite a bit different.



http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/04/s ... ibyan.html

[Keith_McClary]

Here is ELM

Arab gas guzzling threatens global energy balance
APR 20, 2011
By Christopher Swann and Una Galani
The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

Oil consumption, boosted by car use and air conditioning, has risen by half in the past decade to an estimated 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. Saudi Aramco, the national oil group, reckons demand could reach 8.3 million bpd by 2030.

Currently, after exports and domestic consumption, Saudi has spare capacity estimated at 2.8 million bpd — a crucial buffer amounting to about 3 percent of global oil consumption. Aramco’s forecast suggests that could be fully absorbed by domestic demand this side of 2025.

Meanwhile, oil consumption in Kuwait is rising fast enough to start reducing exports within a decade, the Brookings Institution says. Even assuming some restraint, the Middle East is likely to be consuming 11 million bpd by 2035, up from roughly 6 million in 2007, according to the International Energy Agency — a rate of increase second only to fast-growing Asian economies.

Gas Guzzling Arabs.