bratticus wrote:Best friends?
The Peak Oil Crisis: Peak Oil Elasticity
By Tom Whipple / FCNP / May 4, 2011... last week the Kremlin banned gasoline and diesel exports from Russia to alleviate domestic shortages sending gasoline prices in Germany to a record $9.10 a gallon.
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Nice that you found and posted them. I picked the story when it was out of press in Russian in the beginning of May, was going to translate and post it, but then lost it and thought that it was too late afterwards. Not sure that the German thread is the best place to post it, it could fit better in the Russian thread, or Export Land model, or Gasoline Shortages or something alike.
As to the story - this is actually more of wrangling between the government and the oil companies. The government wants to keep the internal prices low, the oil companies want to maximize the profit and find loopholes to sell the oil products in the international market, where the prices are higher. The oil companies' clever tricks result in shortages in the domestic Russian market. The government discovers the loopholes and closes them, the oil companies whine and complain about it and so on.
I am not sure about the specific impact on the German market, but probably Germany is not alone in feeling the impact of a reduced supply in the international market. Oil is a fungible product, so arguably Germany can buy oil products elsewhere to compensate for the reduced deliveries from Russia.
If however the Russian side violated contractual obligations by unilaterally curtailing the export to Germany, then it is certainly no good. The German side may then seek redress by invoking the relevant contractual clauses, presumably. In any event, upsetting the Germans this way would be short sighted, but I do not know the details. Most likely Putin managed their expectations somehow, keeping in mind the story with ceasing the gas exports to Ukraine couple years ago. If there is a German story discussing this than it would be interesting to read it.
Anyway, oil and oil products are fungible, unlike natural gas. You would not invest zillions in order to keep an underwater gas pipeline empty.