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You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

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You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Loki » Wed 18 May 2011, 21:58:52

I read a fascinating old history article the other day about the collapse of the English economy in the 14th century. A nice dose of historical context, my paternal ancestors probably lived through this.

In the 1310s and 1320s England suffered famine, typhoid, livestock dieoff, inflation, economic decline, and an oppressive aristocracy that literally stole food from the poor and gave it to the rich ("To seek silver for the king, I sold my seed" goes one song from the period). A series of crop failures due to bad weather led to famine. Many of the poorest, who were subsisting on 1 or 2 acres, were pushed off their marginal lands. Oxen (the main “tractor” of the day) and sheep died in droves in various disease outbreaks. Food shortages were widespread, and the poorest simply dropped dead.

THE EXPANSION OF THE TWELFTH AND THIRTEENTH CENTURIES IS A commonplace of economic history. Substantial population growth brought rising land values, rising corn prices, and falling real wages. Pressure on the land led to a considerable extension of the area of cultivation as woodland, fen and waste were reclaimed for the plough. With a population of possibly more than five millions by the turn of the fourteenth century, the countryside of England may have been as full as at any time before the eighteenth century. Equally commonplace is the contraction of the later middle ages as these trends were all reversed. In an era of falling population, wages rose as corn prices and land values dwindled. Arable dropped out of use, much of it never again to be tilled, tenements fell vacant, villages were deserted, and encroaching woodlands in some areas took partial revenge for the earlier victory of the plough…

It once seemed obvious: the Black Death of 1348-9 was the clear divider between expansion and contraction, a freak epidemic which cut the population by at least a third. But since the last war economic historians in Western Europe, notably in England Professor M. M. Postan, have come to argue that the seeds of the population decline and agrarian contraction are to be found in the very period of expansion, that this expansion had the makings of its own nemesis. The plough was forced to take over poor, marginal soils which after a while brought diminishing returns; and as the very limits of cultivation were reached, the colonization of new land more or less petered out. Yet all this while population had been growing and the poverty-stricken rural proletariat of landless and near-landless increasing its numbers. By the early fourteenth century population had outgrown resources…”


The result? Famine and mass suffering. The author writes that in “some areas Malthusian causes seem to have been in operation. The drying-up of all available sources of colonizable land, falling crop yields from exhausted soils, proliferation of smallholders on the verge of starvation, and declining opportunities resulting in a drop in marriage- and birth-rates could all have played their part in some places....”

Poor people ate what they could find, and if they couldn't find anything resembling food, they died in the streets:
Trokelowe claimed that even horse-meat was too expensive, and he and other writers referred to the poor being forced to eat dogs, cats and other "unclean things". Rumours of cannibalism - of people stealing children to eat them - may have been exaggerated but they testify to the stark horror which this period of extreme famine impressed upon the memories of contemporaries….The bodies of paupers, dead of starvation, littered city streets.


Things were really bad for a decade or so, got sort of better for a while, then the Black Death hit in the 1340s, killing off a third or so of the population. Bring out your dead!

Makes our challenges 700 years later look a little less formidable, at least in the developed world. Imagine being the poor bastard born an English peasant in 1300. A lifetime of repression, famine, and pestilence to look forward to. Cue Monte Python skit.


SOURCE: The Great Famine and Agrarian Crisis in England 1315-1322 Author(s): Ian Kershaw Source: Past & Present, No. 59 (May, 1973), pp. 3-50
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 18 May 2011, 22:08:22

Loki wrote:Makes our challenges 700 years later look a little less formidable, at least in the developed world. Imagine being the poor bastard born an English peasant in 1300. A lifetime of repression, famine, and pestilence to look forward to. Cue Monte Python skit.


I was just watching a show on the little ice age earlier.. I forget if that had started up as of 1316.. but yes there was a period there where the West was just devastated from overpopulation then climate change ice age, that forced people to huddle inside more to keep warm and the rats sought shelter too and they had fleas with plague that had come over on rats aboard Asia trade ships and voila malthusian apocalyptic horror ensued.

The church officially blamed "witches" for the ice age catastrophe.. in one Swiss canton alone, a thousand people were burned at the stake for witchcraft in one year. And then you had the "flagellant" movement, bands of fanatics roaming from town to town moaning and whiping themselves bloody. Yup Loki, we don't know nothin' about real doom. :lol: On the other hand they didn't have to worry about nuclear war or nuke plant meltdowns.

The most grim reality of all is that die-off is good.. after all the plagues, suddenly there was plenty of land and resources to go around and the economy boomed and the Renaissance was born.

(incidentally there were earlier plagues from centuries before.. I think it was around 900 that the Byzantines nearly managed to conquer the fallen western roman empire. It was a horrifically bloody war and then the black death hit and just wiped everybody out. If not for that Byzantium could have held on to the conquests. Even the emperor got plague; he survived but was a bit brain addled thereafter).
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 May 2011, 14:39:59

I think two of the biggest threats are speculation and monocropping and both are setting up to happen pretty much as they did in Ireland in the 1800s - except this time on a global scale.

By the 1820s, 80 percent of all Ireland's land was owned by British and Scottish landlords, and 25 percent of all land was completely unused for any purpose except real estate speculation. Some 75 percent of what was used, was in grain or horse/cattle pasture, most of this for export by merchants under London's domination.
Link

We've all heard that speculators like George Soros are buying up farmland:
Adecoagro SA, the South American farmland venture backed by billionaire investor George Soros, raised $314 million from its U.S. initial public offering after pricing the shares at the bottom of the range....
Investing in Adecoagro is “a way to play the potential global shortage of food, especially in emerging markets,” Francis Gaskins, president of Marina del Rey, California-based IPOdesktop.com, said in a note today.
link

It's the "In" thing to do...
But on a recent afternoon, The Observer had a conversation of a different sort about agricultural pursuits with a hedge fund manager he'd met at one of the many dark-paneled private clubs in midtown a few weeks prior. "A friend of mine is actually the largest owner of agricultural land in Uruguay," said the hedge fund manager. "He's a year older than I am. We're somewhere [around] the 15th-largest farmers in America right now."

"We," as in, his hedge fund.
link

Image


---
And just like the Irish peasants we're dependent on just one variety of potato:
In the 1800s, the Irish solved their problem of feeding a growing population by planting potatoes. Specifically, they planted the "lumper" potato variety. And since potatoes can be propagated vegetatively, all of these lumpers were clones, genetically identical to one another.

The lumper fed Ireland for a time, but it also set the stage for human and economic ruin. Evolutionary theory suggests that populations with low genetic variation are more vulnerable to changing environmental conditions than are diverse populations. The Irish potato clones were certainly low on genetic variation, so when the environment changed and a potato disease swept through the country in the 1840s, the potatoes (and the people who depended upon them) were devastated.

http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrar ... culture_02

Maybe surprising maybe not, today half the potatoes grown in the world are "Burbank Russets" and you know why right? Because that's the potato Ronald Mcdonald prefers! I've read there are over 5,000 varieties of potato described, each Peruvian farmer is said to have had several different varieties to be used in specific spots on his plot, maybe shady or sunny side, wetter or droughty parts of his hillside.

Here are some other examples, this is worldwide:
    Six varieties of corn -> 46 percent of the crop
    Nine varieties of wheat -> half of the wheat crop
    Two types of peas -> 96 percent of the pea crop.
http://www.ucsusa.org/food_and_agricult ... tures.html


There are a lot of other problems but I think they will be mostly "solved" simply because we'll all come in even in the race-to-the-bottom and so eat much lower on the hog in the future and that will make what we do grow go much farther. It's even cheaper to eat the food we feed our food than buying a value meal if you can believe it.

So the logical solution is to help that process along and quit feeding our food (corn and beans) to the competition (hogs and chickens).
So quit buying meat/milk/eggs from the grain speculators and start buying grass based dairy & beef and raise a few hens on table scraps.
Quit buying industrial produce from chain stores and buy as much in season as possible from local guys at the farmers market or independent grocer if there are any left and maybe some funny sounding stuff in our own gardens.


http://soil.gsfc.nasa.gov/soilfert/npk.htm
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2 ... new-report
http://www.geol.umd.edu/sgc/lectures/biosphere.html
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 19 May 2011, 15:10:11

Here's some more on this famine:

The Great Famine of 1315–1317 was the first of a series of large scale crises that struck North Europe early in the fourteenth century. From the Pyrenees to Russia and from Scotland to Italy it caused millions of deaths over an extended number of years and marking a clear end to an earlier period of growth and prosperity during the eleventh to thirteenth centuries. Starting with bad weather in spring 1315, universal crop failures lasted through 1316 until summer harvest in 1317; Europe did not fully recover until 1322. It was a period marked by extreme levels of crime, disease, mass death and even cannibalism and infanticide.

During the Medieval Warm Period (the period prior to 1300) the population of Europe had exploded, reaching levels that were not matched again in some places until the nineteenth century (parts of France today are less populous than at the beginning of the fourteenth century). There was one catastrophic dip in the weather during the Medieval Warm Period that coincided with the onset of the Great Famine. Between 1310 and 1330 northern Europe saw some of the worst and most sustained periods of bad weather in the entire Middle Ages, characterized by severe winters and rainy and cold summers. Changing weather patterns, the ineffectiveness of medieval governments in dealing with crises and a population level at a historical high water mark made it a time when there was little margin for error.

To provide some measure of relief, draft animals were butchered, seed grain was consumed, children were abandoned to fend for themselves (see "Hansel and Gretel"), and some elderly people voluntarily refused food in order to provide nourishment needed for the younger generation to survive. The chroniclers of the time wrote of many incidents of cannibalism.

Historians debate the toll but it is estimated that 10–25% of the population of many cities and towns died.
Great Famine of 1315–1317

Sounds brutal.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby DomusAlbion » Thu 19 May 2011, 16:45:29

We in the West have managed to escape these normal cycles for so long that the consensus seems to be that it can never happen again in our fat & happy lands. I contend that most of us alive today will see a similar down turn in population in the West.
"Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
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"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 19 May 2011, 17:16:06

DomusAlbion wrote:We in the West have managed to escape these normal cycles for so long that the consensus seems to be that it can never happen again in our fat & happy lands. I contend that most of us alive today will see a similar down turn in population in the West.
Well, to continue the analogy of our current situation to the one above, I would say the developed nations are more like the rich that were hoarding food while the starving masses are more like the developing nations. If the developed nations fell so far that a quarter of their population died of hunger while cannibalism was rampant, I wonder what would even be left of the developing world at that point. Surely they would have hit that point long before the rich world did.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 May 2011, 17:33:02

I think the difference is today the ownership class essentially has no national allegiance, they are global. So the comparison to the British landlords owning the productivity of Ireland but having no interest in Ireland is pretty right on.

If Japan or whomever has the bucks to buy corn you can bet ADM or Cargill is gonna ship it right down the Mississippi no matter how many empty stomachs it passes.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 19 May 2011, 18:06:26

Pops wrote:I think the difference is today the ownership class essentially has no national allegiance, they are global. So the comparison to the British landlords owning the productivity of Ireland but having no interest in Ireland is pretty right on.

If Japan or whomever has the bucks to buy corn you can bet ADM or Cargill is gonna ship it right down the Mississippi no matter how many empty stomachs it passes.
That's not quite true. Food importing nations take predicted food shortages very seriously. So much so, that they started using their wealth to buy up fertile agricultural land in poor developing nations. Nothing says "good bye government" like a starving populace. Governments know this and will take great strides to prevent it. After the 2008 food-fuel scare, many rich food importing nations lost faith in the international food market and are taking steps to directly secure their food future, bypassing the market entirely.

Fifty million acres: gone! It’s a plot of land the size of half the farmland in all of Europe. One year ago, this tract belonged to its natives. Now, foreigners hold the deed. The scale of this landgrab is truly astounding. Nothing similar has taken place since Europeans carved up the subcontinent 200 years ago. Like a Thanksgiving Day turkey-carving gone wrong, Africa’s in-laws are helping themselves. During the past year, South Korea grabbed 1.7 million acres in Sudan. Saudi Arabia scooped up 1.2 million acres in Tanzania. China gobbled up 6.9 million acres in the Democratic Republic of Congo and another 5 million acres in Zambia. India plucked up a 99-year lease for over 1 million acres of farmland in Madagascar. Africa is selling the farm. These are just a few of the published deals, and they might represent just the “tip of the iceberg” in terms of what is actually happening under the table, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization says.

The recent wave of land sales is equivalent to one tenth of the entire area already under plow in Africa. China’s two land deals in the Congo and Zambia alone are roughly equivalent to the total area of Belgium. In fact, China now has greater land holdings in Africa than some African nations. But what is driving the massive landgrab in Africa? Food, fuel and fear. The world can’t live without food and fuel. And when those two are in short supply, you get fear. Thailand, Vietnam, China, India and even producer countries like Argentina imposed export curbs on rice to protect their own supplies. Russia and Ukraine imposed export bans on wheat. And Japan (a country that imports 60 percent of its daily food consumption) found out that no matter how much money it offered, it couldn’t buy what wasn’t available. Food riots broke out in over 20 countries around the world, including Haiti, Senegal, Yemen, Egypt and Cameroon.

According to De Shutter, about 80 percent of the purchased land will be earmarked for food production. However, the other 20 percent is expected to grow biofuel crops. China’s newly purchased 6.8 million acres in the Democratic Republic of Congo was acquired with the purpose of creating the world’s largest palm-oil plantation.

Food-importing nations were rudely awakened to the fact that international markets cannot be relied upon. During crunch times, the equation becomes every nation for itself, and countries are seeking to insure themselves. China, South Korea and India are taking predicted food shortages very seriously. Three times more international land was purchased or leased during the first seven months of this year than in all of 2008. The hope is that during the next food crisis, outsourced food production will ensure food security for investing countries. In exchange, Africa’s new colonists promise military equipment, infrastructure, schools, hospitals, roads, power plants and technology—the same sorts of things provided during Africa’s first colonial period.
Carving up Africa for Food and Fuel
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Nefarious » Thu 19 May 2011, 18:10:18

Pops wrote:If Japan or whomever has the bucks to buy corn you can bet ADM or Cargill is gonna ship it right down the Mississippi no matter how many empty stomachs it passes.


You don't think the government would step in and buy it in order to keep it on domestic shores?
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 19 May 2011, 18:21:18

Pops wrote:I think the difference is today the ownership class essentially has no national allegiance, they are global. So the comparison to the British landlords owning the productivity of Ireland but having no interest in Ireland is pretty right on.
In 1316 the English were ruled by a Franco Norman elite who did not speak English. England was merely the less well off nothern end of the Plantagenet empire and little but a source of revenue. It was not until 1417 that English was promoted as a language of government.

Here are the titles the plantagenets styled themselves with

Designation and details


Title Held Designation and details
Count of Anjou 870–1204
Count of Maine 1110–1203
King of Jerusalem 1131–1143
Duke of Normandy 1144–1485
Duke of Aquitaine 1152–1422
King of England 1154–1485
Lord of Ireland 1177–1485
Duke of Brittany 1181–1203
Lord of Cyprus 1191–1192
King of Sicily 1254–1263
King of Germany
and
King of the Romans 1257–1272
Prince of Wales 1301–1484
King of France 1340–1485
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 19 May 2011, 18:36:18

Pops wrote:I think two of the biggest threats are speculation and monocropping and both are setting up to happen pretty much as they did in Ireland in the 1800s - except this time on a global scale.
Ireland had sufficient food to feed itself. But it was corn and the liberal economic of the day said that the markets must not be interfered with.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_%28Ireland%29#Food_exports_to_England

The English civil servant in charge of Ireland, Charels Travelyn is on record with statements that come close to endorsing the famine as a genocide to reduce the Irish population.
Trevelyan described the famine as 'a direct stroke of an all-wise and all-merciful Providence', one which laid bare 'the deep and inveterate root of social evil'. The famine, he declared, was 'the sharp but effectual remedy by which the cure is likely to be effected... God grant that the generation to which this great opportunity has been offered may rightly perform its part...' This mentality of Trevelyan's was influential in persuading the government to do nothing to restrain mass evictions - and this had the obvious effect of radically restructuring Irish rural society along the lines of the capitalistic model ardently preferred by British policy-makers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_Charles_Trevelyan,_1st_Baronet

Similar attitude prevailed during the slightly later Highland potato famine. Amazingly at the time of the starvation Glasow was the worlds second wealthiest city. The highland famine was less severe as the region had experianced about 100 years of ethnic cleansing and depopulation.


Edited only 32% of Irish arable land was potatoes.
http://www.helsinki.fi/iehc2006/papers3/Vanhaute.pdf
Last edited by dorlomin on Thu 19 May 2011, 19:03:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 May 2011, 18:40:14

That's pretty interesting kub, but it seems to prove what I was trying to say, which is just because you live in a country with farmland or have money today doesn't mean you'll have your pick of the shopping cart forever.

Remember, we are the land of free enterprise, will whoever replaces the tea party stand for the US buying up farmland or grain and giving it away? Cutting ADM out of the deal? Privatize is what they are about, not nationalize.

We are in the very same place vis a vie nationalizing food as we are oil, our weak system is good on the way up when it's all about extracting resources for profit for a few but when it comes to making moves to securing supplies or preparing for shortage like China is doing on all types of resources, it's every man for themselves.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 19 May 2011, 19:20:04

Pops wrote:Remember, we are the land of free enterprise, will whoever replaces the tea party stand for the US buying up farmland or grain and giving it away? Cutting ADM out of the deal? Privatize is what they are about, not nationalize.

We are in the very same place vis a vie nationalizing food as we are oil, our weak system is good on the way up when it's all about extracting resources for profit for a few but when it comes to making moves to securing supplies or preparing for shortage like China is doing on all types of resources, it's every man for themselves.
More like every nation for themselves. China is using its new found wealth to ensure it keeps it's citizens stomachs full when the next food-fuel crunch rolls around. Meanwhile the disenfranchised poor in Africa are getting the shaft. Same old story, poor go hungry while the rich take the food from their own land.

Meanwhile Japan put its faith in free enterprise. "We have money, we will be able to buy food while the poor in Russia and Ukraine starve." Ooops. Russia and Ukraine halt grain exports. Japan comes knocking asking to buy food, talking about free enterprise. Russia laughs and says free enterprise? Sorry, we are more concerned with feeding our own people. I think you will find that attitude prevalent on the downward slope. Free enterprise ideals will take a backseat to feeding your people.

Regarding the US, it is in a rather good position on the topic of feeding it's own people. It's rich, has ample farmland, ample water resources, and has a rather good ratio of productive grainland per person. We don't have to go shopping for farmland in Africa like rich food importers do. I wonder if all of these land-lease deals will get torn up when the natives in Africa start to starve when they see their food getting shipped overseas to foreign lands. Regardless, I am just not seeing this predicted mass starvation in the US, not when they have 10x the amount of grainland per person as Japan or South Korea. And 10x the per capital GDP of China. I can't think of anything more destructive to the rich ruling class holding onto the reigns of power then letting the sheeple starve to death, especially when there is ample food to feed at least your own citizens.

Cropland scarcity has forced some densely populated Asian countries to import most of their grain. After several decades of shrinking per capita grainland, farmers in Malaysia now cultivate only 0.03 hectares of grain for each resident. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan each harvest less than 0.02 hectares. To make up for production shortfalls, these four countries currently import more than 70 percent of the grain they consume, leaving them vulnerable to supply disruptions.

Egypt is following close behind. It harvests 0.04 hectares of grainland for each of its 70 million people and imports over 40 percent of its grain. With the water from the Nile River now fully used, and with Egypt's population increasing by over 1 million annually, this share of imports will almost certainly climb.

Half of the world's annual population growth of 77 million people occurs in just six countries – India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. Each of these nations faces a steady shrinkage of grainland per person and thus risks heavy future dependence on grain imports. This raises two important questions. Will these countries be able to afford to import large quantities of grain as land hunger increases? And will grain markets be able to meet their additional demands?

These numbers are in stark contrast to those of the less densely populated grain exporters, which may have upwards of 10 times as much grainland per person. For Americans, who live in a country with 0.21 hectares of highly productive grainland per person, surviving from such a small food production base is difficult to comprehend.
Population growth leading to land hunger
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 May 2011, 19:32:27

kublikhan wrote:Regarding the US, it is in a rather good position on the topic of feeding it's own people. It's rich, has ample farmland, ample water resources, and has a rather good ratio of productive grainland per person. We don't have to go shopping for farmland in Africa like rich food importers do.

You're missing my point entirely, "We" don't have anything, that guy from NYC who runs a hedge fund does and he sells it to ADM who sells to the highest bidder.

All Japan needs to do is put up the money.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 19 May 2011, 19:49:46

Pops wrote:You're missing my point entirely, "We" don't have anything, that guy from NYC who runs a hedge fund does and he sells it to ADM who sells to the highest bidder.

All Japan needs to do is put up the money.
What do you think of this quote: "every society is only 3 meals away from a revolution"

Do you think the US government is going to sit back and do nothing as those hedge fund managers in NYC pad their bottom line selling food to Japan while the poor masses in the US starve to death? I find that scenario highly unlikely. I believe that even if the teaming masses in the US have no money and no food themselves, the government will provide them with at least enough food to prevent them from starving to death. They will do this to prevent a revolution.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby AdTheNad » Thu 19 May 2011, 20:11:56

kublikhan wrote:They will do this to prevent a revolution.

Only if they fear a revolution would work. If they decide the revolution can be put down easily they will keep doing what ever they want to fill their own pockets no matter who is hurt. This is clear to anyone who sees the prevalent mindset amongst the people in charge of America right now.
So the question is, do you think a revolution would work in America? You've got a lot of guns, but a lot of lazy brainwashed people and a widely spread out population. How many people would march on Washington?
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 19 May 2011, 20:56:10

vAdTheNad wrote:Only if they fear a revolution would work. If they decide the revolution can be put down easily they will keep doing what ever they want to fill their own pockets no matter who is hurt. This is clear to anyone who sees the prevalent mindset amongst the people in charge of America right now.
So the question is, do you think a revolution would work in America? You've got a lot of guns, but a lot of lazy brainwashed people and a widely spread out population. How many people would march on Washington?
Depends on the situation. Right now Americans, even despite the recent recession, are living pretty good lives. The gain/loss evaluation points to no revolution if things continue business as usual, especially given the lazy brainwashed nature of the people.

However in the scenario we were discussing about the famine in 1316, we had 10-25% of the population dying of starvation, cannibalism, infanticide, etc. The gain/loss equation points to not much to loss if the revolution fails. Even the best propaganda and brainwashing in the world would be hard pressed to convince people that they are not really starving to death, that is not really their neighbor's calf they are munching on.

I really don't see how it benefits the people in charge of America to starve the masses to death. People do funny things when starving to death. All of a sudden watching another rerun of American Idol doesn't seem all that appealing. I really haven't seen any good arguments put forth they would persuade me otherwise.
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby jdumars » Sat 21 May 2011, 00:50:38

I think about the implications of a serious cold snap, or geologic event that blocks out the sun for a period of years. What would this mean in terms of agriculture? Would there be a way to have agriculture function on any large scale in that sort of condition? My feeling is that it would be game over for civilization as people started starving on a massive scale.

I wonder if anyone has figured out a mitigation for this? Are we really just one large volcanic explosion away from depopulation?

This scenario scares me more than just about any other. 8O
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 21 May 2011, 11:14:44

What will happen is they will face fillibusters until the food has been shipped out, and a large segment of the population had already met it's fate.

You know that. God probably told Lot, find compassion in just 1 Republican ...
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Re: You think we have it bad now? – the 1316 English famine

Unread postby dorlomin » Sat 21 May 2011, 14:06:57

jdumars wrote:I think about the implications of a serious cold snap, or geologic event that blocks out the sun for a period of years. What would this mean in terms of agriculture? Would there be a way to have agriculture function on any large scale in that sort of condition? My feeling is that it would be game over for civilization as people started starving on a massive scale.

I wonder if anyone has figured out a mitigation for this? Are we really just one large volcanic explosion away from depopulation?

This scenario scares me more than just about any other. 8O
Mushrooms and insects. As a short term emergcy all hands on the tiller type thing we can get protien and carbs from growing mushrooms and rearing insects using soils, dead wood and other such biological material. Also if the slaughter of much of the worlds animal stocks was ordered pretty quickly the meat could be stored and rationed while the food stuff stored as feed for the animals could be repurposed. You will be looking at getting 1500-2000 calories a day per person knowing that is starvation levels but well aware that the sun will return.

Your biggest issue is likely to be more like drought than food to be honest. A big volcano will cool the earth perhaps 5C (Toba\ Yellowstone type BIG). This is likely to see a lot less moisture in the atmosphere and hence water is far more likely to be the big killer than a reduction in light reaching the surface affecting the plants.

How many would die? Dunno depends on many factors. We would not lose all crops, just have big drops in yields.

Just thinking (some people are not going to like this) but knowing we will have massive droughts and dropped yeilds we could engage in a massive effort to get in as much wild meats as possible before the large herds died. Things like elephants and springbok in Africa, deer in the US and fisheries. Maximum capture before the cold and lack of plants killed them off, knowing in return it would take a decade or so of "no take" type policies for many populations to recover. There would be very subtantial amounts of calories available there.

It would be a few years before cats and dogs were a common sight again as well.
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