[Sys1]

As an old peakoiler (I'm here since 2005), I was always interested by the "big picture". I think the most powerful document I ever read in my life was Richard Duncan Olduvai theory. It's incredible how clear, simple and desperate is this gauss curb telling the fate of mankind. From caverns to the moon... and from the moon to caverns.

This document I read on "theoildrum" is very interesting in how peak oil can be stretched to peak everything and how a simple law affect complex systems like our civilisation. I think this document could be used as a way to inform people about what is going on, about the reason of the so called "crisis".

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7924

[Pops]

I'm an old dieoff.org guy too, here is what I think of as "Duncan's" chart, updated through last year.

TOE by the way...


Here is one showing the various components overlaid showing how those miracle modern replacements of coal & gas are taking over from oil. Notice how the amount marked "Other" will not grow to take over for fossil fuels because it can't in a declining economy. I'm anxious for the BP report to come out next month.




Duncan's forecast:

THE PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI GORGE
Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D.1
Pardee Keynote Symposia, Geological Society of America. Summit 2000, Reno, Nevada
November 13, 2000

ABSTRACT
The Olduvai theory has been called unthinkable, preposterous, absurd, dangerous, self-fulfilling, and self-defeating. I offer it, however, as an inductive theory based on world energy and population data and on what I’ve seen during the past 30 years in some 50 nations on all continents except Antarctica. It is also based on my experience in electrical engineering and energy management systems, my hobbies of anthropology and archaeology, and a lifetime of reading in various fields.

The theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production (use) and world population. The details are worked out. The theory is easy. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030.

World energy production per capita from 1945 to 1973 grew at a breakneck speed of 3.45 %/year. Next from 1973 to the all-time peak in 1979, it slowed to a sluggish 0.64 %/year. Then suddenly —and for the first time in history — energy production per capita took a long-term decline of 0.33 %/year from 1979 to 1999. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. More to the point, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.

Should this occur, any number of factors could be cited as the 'causes' of collapse. I believe, however, that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an 'epidemic' of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks — worldwide. Briefly explained: "When the electricity goes out, you are back in the Dark Age. And the Stone Age is just around the corner."

The Olduvai theory, of course, may be proved wrong. But, as of now, it cannot be rejected by the historic world energy production and population data.

1Institute on Energy and Man

5307 Ravenna Place NE, #1

Seattle, WA 98105

[email protected]

http://dieoff.org/page224.htm

Other factors remaining constant, culture evolves as the amount of energy harnessed per capita per year is increased, or as the efficiency of the instrumental means of putting the energy to work is increased. … We may now sketch the history of cultural development from this standpoint.

Leslie White, 1949
"White's Law"

[sparky]

.
Do not assume an even response for every country or economic regions

There is probably going to be a spread from the rock bottom and stay there countries,
they will be OK with nowhere to fall
to the booming regions of West Pacific , suffering some stress
to the post industrial societies whose political stability will become increasingly brittle
their style of governance will mirror their industrial muscle with a good dollop of denial

[peripato]

I'm an old dieoff.org guy too, here is what I think of as "Duncan's" chart, updated through last year.

Duncan's forecast:

THE PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI GORGE
Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D.1
Pardee Keynote Symposia, Geological Society of America. Summit 2000, Reno, Nevada
November 13, 2000

I think even this chart is too optimistic. Once collapse ensues and it could happen at any time, what with the world being so hopelessly interdependent now, as in financially for example, collapse in one system will cause the disruption and collapse of many others leading to a very steep slide. Probably much steeper than this. Just look at food production in the western world for instance. Bloated populations, without the means to fend for themselves, completely dependent on massive supply chains for fertilisers, pesticides, machinery, distribution (just to name a few things) AND all reliant absolutely, one way or the other, on OIL.

And each year we add another 70+ million mouths and annihilate 30+ billion barrels of oily stuff. Staggeringly frightening...

[radon]

A dissenting view, not regarding the article (which is good), but regarding the widespread use and abuse of the "entropy" concept.

1. The entropy concept should be applied where it belongs to - in thermodynamics, energy physics, energy industry. Nevertheless, it has been used and abused in any area that you might think of, mostly wherever the people could see that their productive activities in one place create a mess at another - meaning potentially everywhere. Such use is barely better than that of the "invisible hand" concept which the OP article mocks as "angels pushing".

I remember a few years ago one poster on this website declared that the US was the center of universe and therefore it would always be in a good order, while the rest of the planet, under the law of the ever-rising entropy, should duly descent into chaos to ensure compliance with that law. The gentleman had immigrated to the US at one point, and apparently was in a constant need to rationalize his immigration decision, possibly because the US economy went a little tough those days. So he invoked the angel of entropy to advance his noble rationalization cause. He might well prove right at the end as regards the outcome, but his entropy concept was no better substantiation for his prognostications than any alike "scientific" theory such as arians supremacy.

2. The entropy law applies to closed systems, i.e. those that do not exchange energy with any media outside these systems. Planet Earth is not a closed system. It receives energy from external sources, primarily from the sun, but also from other sources. It emits energy into outer space - we blame AGW on the human activities leading to retention of a fraction of this emitted energy.

The fossil fuels themselves are a concentration of the sun's energy.

The waterfall in the article always moves downwards and - yes, may not move upwards due to, in some measure, the law of non-diminishing entropy. Nevertheless, there is a force that ensures continuous supply of the water to the waterfall. This force is the sun that ensures evaporation and precipitation.

The sun creates lots of chaos and entropy rise somewhere in the outer space in order to ensure that here on Earth we have a highly organized biosphere capable of supporting humans with their little gray cells and a unique ability to create order from chaos. Since the ultimate price of the diminishing entropy on our planet is already being paid handsomely by the sun in the outer space, the entropy law, strictly speaking, does not require that this price has to be paid here on Earth too.

The invocation of the angel of entropy may be just a convenient excuse for behaving like bacteria on petri dish and failing to employ the little gray cells and humans' wonderful self-organizing abilities, sponsored by our benevolent sun.

At the very least, the entropy law, strictly speaking, does not provide such an excuse and exemption from responsibility.