[Anvil]

Hi every one i had this idea whilst watching On the edge video and no i didnt get the idea from crazy old max ranting on about oil shortages. But from the guy he was interviewing said something really interesting to do with Chinese oil consumption. He said that it didnt make sense to him that china didn't take a bigger share of the energy pipe away from America by increasing the value of its currency. To be able to afford to buy energy from other countries at a cheaper cost to cover its resent short falls in electricity supplies to consumption. This then got me thinking about what the long term impacts of shortages of cheap fossil fuel will have on Chinese consumers and businesses. And i think i know what the Chinese consumers and businesses will demand from the their government is a cheap and reliable sources of cheap energy and Chinese governments answer will be buy our clean renewable energy products. These demands play into the hand of a canny Chinese government whose policy is to develop clean renewable technology through using the largest subsidies and direct investment in the world to become independent of fossil fuels to prepare for peak everything and get rid of external price pursuers of fossil fuels shortages have on it economy.

The chinese government has the problem=answer and solution to the long term probem all worked out in the end from my perspective. China inflicts short term pain to get long term gain from its economy.

So what do you guys think am i right or wrong in by rather off the bat theory that trys to add deeper meaning to current events?

[dolanbaker]

And i think i know what the Chinese consumers and businesses will demand from the their government is a cheap and reliable sources of cheap energy and Chinese governments answer will be buy our clean renewable energy products.

No Chance! The Chinese have a near global monopoly on many of the rare-earth minerals that are used in the better renewable energy solutions, plus they have a huge resource in cheap labour.

Plus a number of "partnerships" with western companies that have turned out to be fronts for intellectural theft, steal the ideas and replicate at "home" then dumping the partner.

The Chinese will make their own products.

[Shaved Monkey]

The richest man in China (is an Australian)
solar power magnate says where the country is heading ,they wont be buying technology products from anywhere,they will make their own.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/11 ... ichest.php
The simple maths is you have x amount of people to get x amount of geniuses that will invent/create something good.
China has potentially more geniuses than most places just based on population statistics, then add central Government money driving the search for research/inventiveness, rather than simple capitalist supply and demand model that requires a profit incentive.

[bratticus]

He said that it didnt [sic] make sense to him that china didn't take a bigger share of the energy pipe away from America by increasing the value of its currency.

What 2008 history class text book have you been reading? Here in 2011 things are a bit different now.

Economists See PBOC Hiking Interest Rates In June Or July -Poll
Dow Jones newswire via WSJ / June 17, 2011

... The central bank announced increases in its benchmark lending and deposit rates on Feb. 8 and again on April 5, following two such hikes in 2010. ...

Two interest rate hikes in 2010 plus two in 2011 is four interest rate hikes.
Four, Four PBOC interest rate hikes--Mu-Hu-Ha-Ha-Ha!


How can you call China keeping their currency devalued when they did that?

[astalavista_b]

China has huge coal reserves that they could not use much of them. They have some plans to use them to produce electricity in order to fulfill their demand.

"With a shortage of domestic oil and an automobile market that's now the world's biggest, China has begun a large-scale program to transform its abundant coal resources into motor fuels. It's already home to the world's largest coal liquefaction plant--a facility in Inner Mongolia that reached its full capacity last year and can now pump out a million gallons of diesel fuel per day."

http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/26052/

[bratticus]

China has huge coal reserves that they could not use much of them.

ORLY?

The Chinese Coal Monster - running out of puff
by Euan Mearns on November 20, 2010

In July of this year I wrote a story called The Chinese Coal Monster drawing attention to the fact that China would soon account for 50% of global coal production and consumption. 10% per annum growth in Chinese coal is clearly unsustainable and I posed the question "How long can this go on?"

An article published in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week called China's Coal Crisis suggests the answer to this question is not much longer. ...

[astalavista_b]

I checked the Wiki that it says that China has left 35 years to finish its coal reserves. However they want to diversify their electricity production even it causes huge coal imports. China's coal import tripled from 40 million(2006) to 152 million (2009). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal#World_coal_reserves

That's how they are trying to cope with their huge energy demand. Since China is also one of the top oil importer, the only reason to make such plan can be to diversify their energy resource.

[GoIllini]

Regardless, long run, they are going to have to buy their food from the US. That has always been the US's strength.

The US is fine here. We sell them corn at $7.50/bushel; they sell us back $15 DVD players. If they jack the prices up to $20 on DVD players, we either institute an export tax to jack corn up to $10/bushel or make our own $18 DVD players or stop buying new DVD players for a while. Given geography, the natural inelasticity of food demand, and a quick look at the game theory for two nuclear-armed states' militaries, China can't necessarily do the opposite.

The world's most valuable commodity isn't uranium, gold, or oil. It's food. We have 35% of the world's arable land and (ignoring expensive fruit imports from Latin America) export most of the world's grain. Russia has already stopped exports this year. If we were to play 1/3 as mercantilist with our grain exports as China did with its rare earth elements, we could turn them into the biggest free-trade boosters since Adam Smith. But we choose not to. We are a country run by (alternating) free-market capitalists and be-nice-to-your-neighbors liberals, and we to keep choosing to play fair with countries that choose to play unfair.

[Sixstrings]

Regardless, long run, they are going to have to buy their food from the US. That has always been the US's strength.

But what about Africa? That whole massive continent is essentially undeveloped. The Chinese are buying farmland left and right.. I think their long term plan is for an African breadbasket.

We have 35% of the world's arable land and (ignoring expensive fruit imports from Latin America) export most of the world's grain.

Well that's good news American Big Ag, but that's moving toward automated corporate megafarms, not much benefit to individual Americans. Whereas Chinese making those DVD players actually have a job.

Also..

How will climate change and water depletion affect our agricultural output? If the worst climate change scenarios are true, then the midwest could go desert and prime farmland will move north to Canada and Russia.

[bratticus]

Regardless, long run, they are going to have to buy their food from the US. That has always been the US's strength.

But what about Africa? That whole massive continent is essentially undeveloped. The Chinese are buying farmland left and right.. I think their long term plan is for an African breadbasket.

OMG! They'll end up with all the coffee farms there too! Real coffee farms too, not filthy canned coffee.

[stephankrasner]

Regardless, long run, they are going to have to buy their food from the US. That has always been the US's strength.

Actually world food production is also hitting a number of ecological walls. Peak Oil (obviously), Peak Water, and Agricultural Destruction (monocrops and frankenfood). Until the sustainability of Keynesian economics is considered debunked by the general population, the destruction of our environment will not stop, and neither will the march of the world population over the cliffs edge. If you think people like this are going to change... well... Let's just say they will be a dying breed soon enough.

[Anvil]

The Chinese know that they have run up against peak water why do you think they are diverting the rivers of Tibet for? Just for electricity i think not. They india nation is destined to die from lack of vision (to control there population) and the making of to many enemies in the name of there so call democracy in the name of the USA. The Chinese have also invested the largest amount of money into alternative energy (in the world) and shored up there supply chain in energy rich nations of central Asia and other energy rich enemies of the USA imperialistic bullying in a bid to survive peak energy. Has the USA shown any ambition in the area of renewable energies sense the time of Cater. I think not, therefore it is with not much regret that i say the USA is also a failing nation of huge imperialistic ambitions and lack of forward think vision. With plenty of enemies from its brutal reign of blood by the sword as the sole super power of the world to laugh at its down fall.
The multi-power world is coming soon mark my words.

[GoIllini]

But what about Africa? That whole massive continent is essentially undeveloped. The Chinese are buying farmland left and right.. I think their long term plan is for an African breadbasket.

Well, I wish China the best of luck there- they'll need it, at least in the next couple of decades. The most agriculturally productive region is Zimbabwe, which is run by a gang that makes their own business leaders look as honest as Confucius. In reality, if we formed OGEC with Canada, Argentina, and Brazil, and Russia continued to refuse to export grain, we could cause serious problems for China if they keep hoarding resources.

Well that's good news American Big Ag, but that's moving toward automated corporate megafarms, not much benefit to individual Americans. Whereas Chinese making those DVD players actually have a job.

I happen to work on the "big corporate" side of things, and you'd actually be surprised. Wisconsin and North Dakota make corporate ownership of farmland illegal- I believe you also have to be a state resident to buy it. Regardless, long run, as fewer people land jobs, fewer people get married and have kids. The fact is that the US will likely be a somewhat older and smaller population country with more wealth in 30-40 years. What is so bad about that? There will not be some gigantic underclass of starving people or corporate slaves as folks here have always purported; these people will not be born due to the weak economy.

How will climate change and water depletion affect our agricultural output? If the worst climate change scenarios are true, then the midwest could go desert and prime farmland will move north to Canada and Russia.

This will take hundreds of years- perhaps a problem for our great great grandchildren. By then, they probably will have built the GRAND canal project. This is assuming that starting tomorrow, not another drop of water goes into the Great Lakes and all the worst fears of the climate change folks are realized and Lake Michigan/Huron/Superior evaporation losses double to 2 feet/year due to evaporation from a warmer climate. Yes, it's impossible to rule out something worse, but it's impossible to rule out getting hit by a bus tomorrow, too.

Regardless, what's more important than what happens in the US 300 years from now is what happens in the US in the next 50. Russia has a lot more not-quite-as-friendly neighbors than we do and has a tendancy to restrict food exports. There will not be an 8-month growing season in the Northwest Territories anytime soon. We need to form a consortium of American food-exporting economies and stick it to China , Iran, and Venezuela (all food importers).

[GoIllini]

Regardless, long run, they are going to have to buy their food from the US. That has always been the US's strength.

Actually world food production is also hitting a number of ecological walls. Peak Oil (obviously), Peak Water, and Agricultural Destruction (monocrops and frankenfood). Until the sustainability of Keynesian economics is considered debunked by the general population, the destruction of our environment will not stop, and neither will the march of the world population over the cliffs edge. If you think people like this are going to change... well... Let's just say they will be a dying breed soon enough.

Yes, but in the meantime, during our lifetimes, the US is going to get rich off of the food shortages if that's the case. There's a thousand feet of freshwater in the Great Lakes and it is not like we will be losing 15 feet/year to evaporation. Even the Aral Sea, in the middle of a vast desert, only lost a couple feet per year. In reality, it will be a very gradual shift taking hundreds of years and local civil wars and famines very far away will ensure that our great grandchildren will have plenty of room to move to where the rain winds up falling.

Look no further than OPEC- if the demand curve is inelastic enough- like for food or oil- you make more money by producing less. The "resource scarcity" is absolutely terrible for the developing world- certainly MENA and probably central/southern Africa, India, and China, but it will be a total bonanza for Midwestern farmers with access to water. Global warming will be a very, very good thing for the US, especially if we can manage the process. And there will be plenty of room for middle-class farmers. There just won't be as much room for residential construction workers, mortgage brokers, and welfare recipients to have children.

[stephankrasner]

With plenty of enemies from its brutal reign of blood by the sword as the sole super power of the world to laugh at its down fall.

If the United States Falls, no one in the world will be laughing. China may have gotten rid of it's short term U.S. debt, but I doubt if will find anyone to buy off the other 95% of the long term stuff. If the U.S. Became unable to pay it's debts China would suffer, thus they wouldn't be able to pay off THEIR debts. In fact almost every country owes other countries debt that is over 100% of GDP. The loss of a major money sinkhole like the United States would cripple the world economy, including the chinese economy. I doubt the Chinese could go very long before hitting their ecological walls anyway.

People need to realize that the problem is not the shortages (oil, money, arable land, water, etc.). The shortage tells us that the system isn't working. The Chinese leaders like the U.S. leaders believe that infinite expansion is possible. It's not, and the dream of an eco industrial complex is a fantasy. They aren't going to have it and neither are we.

[GoIllini]

People need to realize that the problem is not the shortages (oil, money, arable land, water, etc.). The shortage tells us that the system isn't working. The Chinese leaders like the U.S. leaders believe that infinite expansion is possible. It's not, and the dream of an eco industrial complex is a fantasy. They aren't going to have it and neither are we.

Well, it's possible if you have an infinitely expanding carrying capacity, which I'll admit is a ridiculous assumption. That said, the fact is that if we get fusion working or if we get a space elevator working and can do solar via sattelites, earth's carrying capacity will expand enough to allow another 100 years of 3-4% economic growth, perhaps more. I think this really gets back to the fact that innovation drives the economy. When we run out of ideas, it will stop growing.

[stephankrasner]

Yes, but in the meantime, during our lifetimes, the US is going to get rich off of the food shortages if that's the case.

Fantasy. The Industrial agra sector is in big trouble, especially in the United States due to monocropping and GM food. Monocropping is very efficient, because it allows for high yields and kills off diversity in pests. The problem is that it also kills off the pollinators because there is nothing for them to eat in a monocrop. In fact bees have to be trucked in and systematically inbred in order to have pollination, and then they just let the bees starve afterward. This has led to a bee shortage and a weakening of the bee community which if left unchecked will kill monocropping and the high yields it once provided. GM food amplifies the problem because GM food was created for monocropping and pretty much kills off any bugs in the process including pollinators.

You mention water, how is all that water going to be trucked around the country if oil isn't cheap, let alone, shipping it to countries on the other side of the world affordably?

This will take hundreds of years- perhaps a problem for our great great grandchildren.

You will feel the effects of the industrial economic fallout long before your grandkids do. Anyone who looks at how we consume today and think it can go on for another 30-40 years is insane.

[GoIllini]

You mention water, how is all that water going to be trucked around the country if oil isn't cheap, let alone, shipping it to countries on the other side of the world affordably?

The way it has for thousands of years- evaporate off of Lake Michigan, land in fields. Or the market will figure it out and create a lot of jobs in the process. Folks said the same thing about pipeline capacity for natural gas fracking a few years ago; surely building some simple water pipelines can't be more complicated than midstream natural gas infrastructure.

You will feel the effects of the industrial economic fallout long before your grandkids do. Anyone who looks at how we consume today and think it can go on for another 30-40 years is insane.

Not really worried. We had our 80 year crash three years ago, 1/2 of our people got laid off, we lived. You slog through this kinda stuff, move on, and then start getting some more interesting projects to work on. So there will be an 8000-year or 8 million year crash on top of this? Fair enough, let's tack on a few standard deviations along with some skew. Ok, we'll make it through, and I've got a hunch midwestern middle-class farmers are positioned perfectly for this.

What is the big deal? We have hundreds of years of natural gas. As long as we keep the fracking in Texas deserts, there's really no harm done.

We can't worry about this stuff- we just have to position the US to either take advantage of it or expand the planet's carrying capacity visavis fusion. Incidentally, it would render China's spending on renewables moot and render Ahmadinejad an annoyance more on the level of Fidel Castro.

[kiwichick]

goillini; have you got any of those drugs going spare?

[kiwichick]

2008 was just an entree

99% of people , at all levels, are still in denial and time is rapidly running out

we possibly could pull up if we took rapid and radical action, but it looks increasingly like we won't