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QE3

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QE3

Unread postby bratticus » Mon 20 Jun 2011, 09:13:21

Bloomberg FX Survey Reveals Skepticism on Regulations & QE3
Bloomberg / June 14, 2011


Foreign Exchange leaders polled at Bloomberg FX11 Summit ...

... Quantitative Easing - There will not be a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), said nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of those polled; while 29 percent said there would be a QE3 ...


Third Time's a Curse: QE3 and Lehman
Bo Peng / Seeking Alpha / June 16, 2011


... Now, two weeks before the end of QE2, has it sunken in that QE3 is not coming, at least not so easily? ...

... The risk is, like the Treasury in the Lehman case, the Fed has prematurely spent its ammo. There's no political appetite unless and until there's a real disaster. I'm talking a Dow < 10,000 type of disaster, regardless of the cause. The adversity has been vividly demonstrated by the outspokenness of hawks in the Fed and the outrage stirred by Bernanke's "no cost" comment, not to mention the transitory inflation not caused by the Fed. ...


FORGET WHAT YOU HEARD: Nomura Explains Why There's No QE3 To Rescue You
Business Insider / June 18, 2011


Despite the growing chorus of people predicting QE3, it's still a longshot.

Nomura rates guru George Goncalves explains why the conditions that were in place last year -- when QE2 was introduced -- just aren't here this time.
  • -Flation risks still seem more tilted to inflation over deflation (see the below chart).
  • Based on what we've heard from various Fed-heads, there's clearly a lot of dissent internally.
  • Criticism would also be much more intense from overseas, given perceived connection between QE and weak dollar/high commodities.
  • According to Bernanke, what makes QE "work" is the stock of purchases, not the flow of purchases, which means technically the program doesn't end when the bond buying comes to an end.
  • Despite the talk, the market does not anticipate more QE, as evidenced by weakness in "risk" assets.
...


Bernanke May Face ’Self-Induced Paralysis’
By Rich Miller / Bloomberg / June 20, 2011


... By all but ruling out another cycle of bond purchases, Fed officials have left themselves with little in the way of policy options to respond to slowing growth and rising unemployment. This raises the risk that the U.S. will remain saddled with what Bernanke himself has called a “frustratingly” sluggish recovery that leaves millions of Americans out of work.

“I worry that QE3 will be hostage to QE2,” said Vincent Reinhart, a former director of the Fed’s monetary-affairs division who is now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “That may lead to that self-induced paralysis” in further easing policy to aid the economy.

Fed officials, who begin a two-day meeting tomorrow to plot monetary strategy, are betting the slowdown will prove short- lived and growth will pick up from July through December as shocks from Japan’s earthquake and an oil-price surge fade. ...
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Re: QE3

Unread postby bratticus » Mon 20 Jun 2011, 09:45:37

No interest rate hike during the upcoming FOMC meeting - Adam Narczewski
NASDAQ / June 20, 2011


... Adam Narczewski also doubts that the quantitative easing program will be extended after QE2 finishes at the end of June: "Despite talks about QE3, I do not think it will be implemented unless recession is back but I do not take that scenario into account right now." ...
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Re: QE3

Unread postby bratticus » Mon 20 Jun 2011, 23:05:52

So many QE3 nay-sayers. It will be interesting either way now if there is or isn't a sudden QE3.
Roberts: QE3? Don't expect even "a hint" of it
MarketWatch / June 20, 2011


... MarketWatch Radio's Larry Kofsky that even "a hint" of QE3 is not likely. ...


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Re: QE3

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 22 Jun 2011, 09:37:19

QE2 Lite Kick-Off? FOMC Preview
By YohayElam / benzinga / June 20, 2011


The FOMC is unlikely to announce a third program of quantitative easing, but will probably kick off the buying of maturing assets. This QE2 Lite program will likely be received positively by the dollar, but this also heavily depends on the words and the tone of Bernanke in the press conference . FOMC Preview with the two most important scenarios. ...
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Re: QE3

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 14:49:16

Bank of England pumps more cash into economy to support recovery
Sven Egenter and David Milliken / Reuters / February 9, 2012


... The central bank said on Thursday it would buy another 50 billion pounds of assets - mostly government bonds - with freshly printed money, taking the total to 325 billion pounds, as economists had expected. The BoE also left its key interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.

... This time around, a majority of analysts polled by Reuters had penciled in a 50 billion pound injection over three months.

Who are they kidding? The sales of the government bonds will put new money into the hands of those who will turn around and send it to China by purchasing securities there. We will see another round of China food inflation. It will be visible as a new RJA bubble. The only question I have now is when is the exact time it will start and the exact duration of the cash injection? All I have now is the schedule about the release of the schedule:
The minutes from the two-day Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be released in two weeks, but economists will get an earlier steer when BoE Governor Mervyn King presents fresh quarterly inflation forecasts next week.

50 billion pounds is about $78.6 billion USD. The rate at which they release this less the rate at which China "puts on the breaks" by fiddling with interest rates will affect the size of the bubble. Another consideration is whether there will be any concurrent programs by other nations that add to the hot money.

QE2 was around $600 billion USD from November 2010 to (supposedly) June 1, 2011 but there were indications that the fixed amount of money was released too quickly and ended in May 2011.

There's been nothing left in England to invest in for a while now and sending the money to China is a well known response to that.
China's "Hot Money" Problems
MF Martin / July 21, 2008


... There is no formal definition of “hot money,” but the term is most commonly used in financial markets to refer to the flow of funds (or capital) from one country to another in order to earn a short-term profit on interest rate differences and/or anticipated exchange rate shifts. These speculative capital flows are called “hot money” because they can move very quickly in and out of markets, potentially leading to market instability. Many economists maintain that the rapid outflow of “hot money” first from Thailand and then from other Southeast Asian economies was a significant contributing factor to the onset and severity of the East Asian Financial Crisis of 1997.
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Re: QE3

Unread postby sjn » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 17:34:55

They don't really care where the money goes, in fact having it go into Chinese food inflation is all to the good, after all it keeps domestic inflation down. The point is to keep UK gov interest rates low, by buying up gilts the guarantee a buyer reducing the supply at auction and keeping market rates lower than they otherwise would be. This is the only way the BOE can defend the 0.5% base rate, otherwise the bond market would set it for them.
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Re: QE3

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 19:13:32

sjn wrote:They don't really care where the money goes, in fact having it go into Chinese food inflation is all to the good, afterall [sic] it keeps domestic inflation down.

Are you certain? When you buy all your junk from China you are exposed to the rising price of Chinese goods due to inflation in China. Oh wait, I keep on forgetting that inflation has nothing to do with the prices of things people buy.
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Re: QE3

Unread postby sjn » Sat 11 Feb 2012, 15:33:41

babystrangeloop wrote:
sjn wrote:They don't really care where the money goes, in fact having it go into Chinese food inflation is all to the good, afterall [sic] it keeps domestic inflation down.

Are you certain? When you buy all your junk from China you are exposed to the rising price of Chinese goods due to inflation in China. Oh wait, I keep on forgetting that inflation has nothing to do with the prices of things people buy.

Certain, no. I'm speculating that they really don't care. Do you think the political and financial elites in the UK establishment are all that concerned about a rising price of Chinese goods? Probably, if anything, it's perceived as a benefit to the UK since it makes domestic production more competitive versus Chinese imports.

Inflation and deflation can be a very personal effects. The whole point of macro financial policy is to decide who experiences which!
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