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Lake Powell To Be Full Again

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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 11 Mar 2022, 13:24:49

vtsnowedin wrote:
Newfie wrote:EU,

When we have excess traffic we build more roads to cope with the traffic. But that causes more development, which causes more traffic. So in effect you are not building roads to cope with traffic but to encourage development.

Same with the damns.

Coping would mean learning how to live within your means.

Being an old road and bridge builder I have always found that to be a false or backward argument against building better roads. The traffic is there because people want to get from point A to point B. People don't take a new road to find out what is on the other end, they already know. The road serves the demand that is already there . It does not create that demand.


When I first came to California in 1978, I visited the Imperial Valley area. It was empty, but had a brand new double five-lane highway that paralleled the mountain range alongside (that you couldn't even see given that the smog in LA would fill the entire valley). Now those same highways are congested with cars (and huge trucks) during most of the day and the entire imperial valley is filled with houses.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 12 Mar 2022, 11:18:07

jedrider wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Newfie wrote:EU,

When we have excess traffic we build more roads to cope with the traffic. But that causes more development, which causes more traffic. So in effect you are not building roads to cope with traffic but to encourage development.

Same with the damns.

Coping would mean learning how to live within your means.

Being an old road and bridge builder I have always found that to be a false or backward argument against building better roads. The traffic is there because people want to get from point A to point B. People don't take a new road to find out what is on the other end, they already know. The road serves the demand that is already there . It does not create that demand.


When I first came to California in 1978, I visited the Imperial Valley area. It was empty, but had a brand new double five-lane highway that paralleled the mountain range alongside (that you couldn't even see given that the smog in LA would fill the entire valley). Now those same highways are congested with cars (and huge trucks) during most of the day and the entire imperial valley is filled with houses.


What you guys are describing is, metaphorically speaking, essentially the same argument that revolves around the topic of equity. Jordan Peterson argues, basically, for how new roads will only encourage new growth. Those who continually find themselves on the short end of resources, having to constantly do work arounds for the lack of it, are arguing for a different form of equality than how everybody who doesn't share their need keeps voting "no" when road and other infrastructure spending comes up on the ballot.

It used to be that we lived in a Republic. That means that we elect these representatives, and trust them to make these sorts of decisions. If people got offended, they could raise it to a new level, but it was difficult to do it. Nowadays, it is easier. That's both bad and good. It does mean that people have to know more. It does mean they have to pay attention to details they never had to before, when they could trust that their representatives weren't just trying to represent one faction of the electorate.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 12 Mar 2022, 12:54:41

evilgenius wrote:What you guys are describing is, metaphorically speaking, essentially the same argument that revolves around the topic of equity. Jordan Peterson argues, basically, for how new roads will only encourage new growth. Those who continually find themselves on the short end of resources, having to constantly do work arounds for the lack of it, are arguing for a different form of equality than how everybody who doesn't share their need keeps voting "no" when road and other infrastructure spending comes up on the ballot.

It used to be that we lived in a Republic. That means that we elect these representatives, and trust them to make these sorts of decisions. If people got offended, they could raise it to a new level, but it was difficult to do it. Nowadays, it is easier. That's both bad and good. It does mean that people have to know more. It does mean they have to pay attention to details they never had to before, when they could trust that their representatives weren't just trying to represent one faction of the electorate.


Yes, politics has certainly changed in the USA. Now it is 'divisiveness' and 'knee-jerk reactions' that is running the show. No room for argument. Perhaps it is because we now live in a nation of isolates in front of our entertainment devices who, largely, see no purpose in their lives other than rooting for their team.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 17 Mar 2022, 06:50:55

jedrider wrote:
evilgenius wrote:What you guys are describing is, metaphorically speaking, essentially the same argument that revolves around the topic of equity. Jordan Peterson argues, basically, for how new roads will only encourage new growth. Those who continually find themselves on the short end of resources, having to constantly do work arounds for the lack of it, are arguing for a different form of equality than how everybody who doesn't share their need keeps voting "no" when road and other infrastructure spending comes up on the ballot.

It used to be that we lived in a Republic. That means that we elect these representatives, and trust them to make these sorts of decisions. If people got offended, they could raise it to a new level, but it was difficult to do it. Nowadays, it is easier. That's both bad and good. It does mean that people have to know more. It does mean they have to pay attention to details they never had to before, when they could trust that their representatives weren't just trying to represent one faction of the electorate.


Yes, politics has certainly changed in the USA. Now it is 'divisiveness' and 'knee-jerk reactions' that is running the show. No room for argument. Perhaps it is because we now live in a nation of isolates in front of our entertainment devices who, largely, see no purpose in their lives other than rooting for their team.


I think what you say is true. For me, it boils down to reason vs. experience. It used to be that any thinking person knew that they could never pick one or the other as being the ultimate means to gain wisdom. They function in tandem. Anybody who has ever made anything from scratch knows this.

You start with a plan. You try to implement it. You fail. You see where you went wrong. You change your plan. The essence of your plan may, or may not change. If you can't handle any change, though, you can't force the elements that conspire to make it fail to change. They are reality, not your plan, so to speak. But if you only rest upon the way things have always been, allow the elements to dictate to you how you will live, you will never experience what you can.

When people come at you from some "silo" they think they have everything figured out. They don't need to change anything. It's what both the Republicans, who use reason, and the Democrats, who espouse experience, are doing. As a consequence, they talk past each other. Everything each side says about what it holds dear being under threat seems real to them. But what their pet things are under threat from is not the other side, it is from the truth. The truth always lies in the middle.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 17 Mar 2022, 13:34:38

The human reactions you guys are discussing are well known. Some guy even did a lengthy 10 piece blog describing it quite well.

https://waitbutwhy.com/2019/08/story-intro.html

I was trying to Ibon to read this for about a year before he quit.

What I personally find so damn aggravating is that our political leaders know about this splitting and are both sides, abetted by the media, us it to manipulate us.

And we let them.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 17 Mar 2022, 15:29:45

Meanwhile, at lake Powell

March 17 2022
Lake Powell's water levels dip to new low, triggering worries about power production

PHOENIX – Water levels at drought-stricken Lake Powell have dropped below an elevation level water managers had fought to protect, dipping past a buffer meant to protect hydropower generation.

For the first time since water rose behind Glen Canyon Dam in the 1960s, the lake’s surface dropped below elevation 3,525 Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation said Wednesday morning. The dam can still produce electricity down to elevation 3,490, but shallower water reduces pressure and the power plant’s capacity, and further declines could damage the turbines.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 077078001/

Mankind: "We will conquer the desert and bend it too our will
Nature: "Actually I have other plans"
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 17 Mar 2022, 15:41:05

I love the way they measure it too.
"the lake’s surface dropped below elevation 3,525"

Very cunning, and hides the fact that there could be 100 feet of silt at the dam wall, making the depth, and volume, quite a bit lower than the average home owner in Phoenix would suspect. And that's what this is all about folks, keeping the dirty truth from the masses so they go blithely through their lives working 9~5 and consuming with no questions asked. When the SHTF then they will be told by a panel of experts "Well no one could have seen this coming"

I know all dams silt up and eventually become useless, siltation rates vary, for many reasons, but when levels get this low siltation becomes an important factor for a sixty year old dam.


Muddy Waters: Silt and the Slow Demise of Glen Canyon Dam
https://www.hcn.org/issues/43.6/muddy-w ... canyon-dam

The San Juan flows at about 10 percent sediment by volume. (Wet concrete, by comparison, is 30 percent sediment.) Though Glen Canyon Dam is 710 feet tall, its lowest outlet is 237 feet, which is how high silt must reach before the game is over. That silt is now creeping up the face of the dam at about four inches a year. Recent studies on Lake Powell show that the lower the water levels fall, the faster sediment moves toward the dam,
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 18 Mar 2022, 04:18:10

theluckycountry wrote:I love the way they measure it too.
"the lake’s surface dropped below elevation 3,525"

Very cunning, and hides the fact that there could be 100 feet of silt at the dam wall, making the depth, and volume, quite a bit lower than the average home owner in Phoenix would suspect. And that's what this is all about folks, keeping the dirty truth from the masses so they go blithely through their lives working 9~5 and consuming with no questions asked. When the SHTF then they will be told by a panel of experts "Well no one could have seen this coming"

I know all dams silt up and eventually become useless, siltation rates vary, for many reasons, but when levels get this low siltation becomes an important factor for a sixty year old dam.


Muddy Waters: Silt and the Slow Demise of Glen Canyon Dam
https://www.hcn.org/issues/43.6/muddy-w ... canyon-dam

The San Juan flows at about 10 percent sediment by volume. (Wet concrete, by comparison, is 30 percent sediment.) Though Glen Canyon Dam is 710 feet tall, its lowest outlet is 237 feet, which is how high silt must reach before the game is over. That silt is now creeping up the face of the dam at about four inches a year. Recent studies on Lake Powell show that the lower the water levels fall, the faster sediment moves toward the dam,

Thinking like a ruthless investor, I've taken a look at some of the water companies in the West. Phoenix looks like it could be set up to endure high prices for water. You wonder how much of that would be water company profits. I gotta say, though, the whole idea made me so uncomfortable that I quit looking.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 18 Mar 2022, 08:58:11

RE: Water Level
They are not trying to hide something, they are looking at the situation with a specific requirement. They need a certain amount of PRESSURE to properly operate the turbines. That is defined by the difference in height from the turbine to the surface of the water. They could run forever as long as the pressure is adequate. Power people look at pressure head, altitude.

An equally valid but different measure is VOLUME. You can run the pressure down very low and as long as you have volume you can water people, animals and plants. Silt reduces volume but not pressure. Farmers look at volume, acre-feet.

Until the silt covers the turbine intakes the power people are happy.
As long as there is water farmers are happy.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 18 Mar 2022, 19:28:01

As a river enters a lake or reservoir the velocity slows down and the silt that had been carried by the faster flow begins to settle out with the larger and heavier aggregates dropping out first and medium and lighter ones taking their turn. This is what builds a delta at the mouths of rivers like the Nile and the Mississippi. For a lake, like lake Powell only the finest clay sized particles would reach all the way to the dam face and many of them will pass on through the turbines on their way downstream.
But eventually there will be an accumulation and when it gets up to an elevation endangering the intakes to the turbine entrance gates they will just have to deal with it by dredging the silt and clay out using an airlift and depositing it on the shore. Not really a big problem and solution well known.
It might even be a good time to do some of this work as the low lake level reduces the energy needed to suck the silt up to the lake level.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 18 Mar 2022, 19:34:03

Newfie wrote:RE: Water Level

Until the silt covers the turbine intakes the power people are happy.
As long as there is water farmers are happy.

No the power people really want the water to be one or two hundred feet above the intakes as that determines the potential power generation.
And the city and suburbs are also very happy if there is water.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 18 Mar 2022, 20:32:10

Yeah, know that.

I was simply trying to explain the different points of view in how the lake is measured.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 18 Mar 2022, 20:36:53

Newfie wrote:Yeah, know that.

I was simply trying to explain the different points of view in how the lake is measured.

Understood.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 19 Mar 2022, 21:04:40

The southwest is undergoing Peak Water. And, we still have lawns!

Just an indication that when we reach Peak Oil, we'll still be driving.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 19 Mar 2022, 23:09:05

jedrider wrote:The southwest is undergoing Peak Water. And, we still have lawns!

Just an indication that when we reach Peak Oil, we'll still be driving.

Well some of us will.
That the military and the rich are still driving will be small consolation to the masses that are having to deal with doing without.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 21 Mar 2022, 04:34:48

jedrider wrote:The southwest is undergoing Peak Water. And, we still have lawns!

Just an indication that when we reach Peak Oil, we'll still be driving.

Not just that, but you can still buy a top loading washing machine! It takes the sort of attitude adjustment that works through the minds of all the people, so that they rush to do good rather than to serve their own self-interest. But what is good? That's the argument that the West has not been engaging. I think it has to do with understanding the juxtaposition of the individual vs. society. The answer to that question is different in Europe, for instance. That doesn't mean they have it right. It simply means they weren't afraid to even engage the question when the time came, like the US was.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 21 Mar 2022, 07:23:26

Something to that point. Good post.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 26 Mar 2022, 05:33:46

Newfie wrote:An equally valid but different measure is VOLUME. You can run the pressure down very low and as long as you have volume you can water people, animals and plants. Silt reduces volume but not pressure. Farmers look at volume, acre-feet.

Until the silt covers the turbine intakes the power people are happy.
As long as there is water farmers are happy.


Yes, and when the intakes are covered they can change to reporting the dams' level as a hedonically adjusted historic median based on computer modeled heights of water bodies on newly found planets orbiting the closest 25 G2 stars. Which will be just as useful for making future plans about water allocation.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 26 Mar 2022, 05:42:16

evilgenius wrote:Thinking like a ruthless investor, I've taken a look at some of the water companies in the West. Phoenix looks like it could be set up to endure high prices for water. You wonder how much of that would be water company profits. I gotta say, though, the whole idea made me so uncomfortable that I quit looking.

Well we all gotta make a buck, so I know where you're coming from. I don't invest in this sort of thing but I see dams etc as a critical dependency and I actively try and avoid those. One day these big dams may well run dry and you don't want to living in an area that is supplied by it when that happens. Life goes on of course but you'd get that rustbelt effect where most of the population will exit stage left.

Peak oil, peak dam capacity, peak minerals, peak food supply, it seems all the things mankind has built or exploited are coming to a head at the same time in history. Fascinating really.
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Re: Lake Powell To Be Full Again

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 26 Mar 2022, 08:02:41

LTG?
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