[Sixstrings]

Crude Back At $100, Highest Since June 15, Going Much Higher Courtesy Of European Monetization Start

Courtesy of the IEA which earlier loudly announced 'No More SPR Releases' (although like the ECB earlier announced it would not accept defaulted Greek debt as collateral only to reneg, this is total bullshit), and another massive taxpayer funded iteration of EFSF monetization-infused moral hazard, crude is back to $100. Since the EFSF will very soon be expanded to over $1 trillion and since this is nothing less than Europe's version of QE, and paradrops money that just like the Fed's own daily POMOs will ultimately find its way into the market, as holders of toxic Greek debt shift their assets into risk holdings, we expect crude to surge to $110, then $120, then $130 and so forth until another global depression has to be called in. And, naturally, the same with every other hard asset that can not be diluted.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/crude-back-100-highest-june-15-going-much-higher-courtesy-european-monetization-start

Hard to know what to blame anymore..

Is it peak oil?

Is it from all the money printing / "quantitative easing?"

The collapse of globalist capitalism and bankster algorithmic financial products / shenanigans / wholesale theft?

Or maybe all the above?

I dunno, but oil's up again.

[Cloud9]

Systemic collapse has many symptoms, but it is oil that is the blood of the beast.

[Fishman]

Excellent posts Six and 9. We all have our opinions. It certainly looks peak oil as the causative agent to me, with QE more as the whipped cream on top. Honestly, that is more of opinion than data driven. Prep resources are certainly getting more expensive. Basic 10/10/10 fertiizer (I prefer organic Espoma products) has nearly doubled over the last 2- 3 years.

[Pops]

You're still watching landlocked WTI. Louisiana Light (oil on the GOM available for shipment) has risen more or less steadily from about November of last year to average about a $20 premium to WTI - same as Brent.
I can't link the chart

Expect WTI to take a big jump ($20?) next year when pipes to the oceans are completed from Cushing and Alberta.

[Bill Hicks]

BofA stated yesterday that Brent Crude will be $175 by 2012. Even if the Brent-WTI spread stays around $20, that would mean $5 gas in the U.S.

[Cog]

The American economy can't take $4 gallon gasoline much less $5. We will spiral down into demand destruction before we get there. My call is we will never see $135/bbl Brent much less $175/bbl.

[Sixstrings]

BofA stated yesterday that Brent Crude will be $175 by 2012. Even if the Brent-WTI spread stays around $20, that would mean $5 gas in the U.S.

Inflation, inflation everywhere.. even China. I read the other day they've released their national pork reserves after already having released provincial reserves, to help with out of control food prices.

The interesting thing about peak oil that none of us foresaw was this inflationary component, and how much the peak oil collapse story would play out as economic collapse. It's a double whammy.. oil going up, $175 by 2012 would be 75% inflation. That kind of oil price spreads to the whole economy, now add in all this monetary printing press inflation. What a mess.

Most concerning is if Zerohedge is right and the EU is about to go the full Ben Bernanke and crank up the presses. The EU alone could ramp up worldwide inflation as much as the Fed did.

[Pops]

I'd be surprised to see $150 oil for any length of time, same with $4 gas. 'Course I've been wrong before.

This is inflation adjusted one year average price:

[Sixstrings]

Actually I've long assumed we'd see a new version of the early 1970's stagflation, a consequence of USA peaking (1972) and the 1973 Arab oil embargo/crisis. The combination of high unemployment and inflation confused economists and political analysts at the time, and today few understand it was a consequence of oil depletion.

The 70's was before my time, but from what I've read things are looking like the "days of malaise." So how do we get out of it? The Reagan Revolution was a one-shot deal.. globalization and getting women into the workforce brought some initial growth that lasted on up through the Clinton years and petered out in the dubbya years.

But now the offshoring is complete, we don't have anything left to offshore. We're already at max efficiency with millions of jobless and wages that have been stagnant for a decade. Everyone is talking cuts, not growth. The old solutions won't work again, give corps and the rich more Reagan-style tax cuts and they'll just invest it offshore. So while this is like the Carter years, I don't see how we get out of it this time.. at the end of the day, there's nothing an American can do that an Asian can't.

I'm cool with pinning all this on peak oil, but on the other hand Apple products employ one million Chinese but only 50,000 Americans. That's an offshoring problem, not a peak oil problem.

(seriously guys how is there ever going to be recovery.. the country is already full up on McDonalds and Starbucks and suburbs. Mexicans pick the veggies, machinery and robots do the rest. A lot of people point to "information" jobs, but what does that mean.. tens of millions writing seo optimization nonsense articles? Take a look at elance, Indians and Pakistanis will do it for less)

[Sixstrings]

No really. Look at outsourcing from an energy perspective. We in the USA and most modern 1st world countries need a crap load of petroleum just to live, and eat, and drink. The Chinese don't.

The irony of it all is that the only solution for Globalization Doom and Environmental Doom is if Peak Oil Doom would hurry the hell up already.

[Fishman]

My word, I think we almost have a consensus here. Pstarr, I have to say the energy perspective comment is one of the most astute I have read here on peak oil in some time. Perhaps we can compete with our creativity (please don't attack that statement, I understand its failings)

[Geodesic]

Add this into the mix and we get $500. oil.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/op ... 34786.html

There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict", Baer explained.

[babystrangeloop]

There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran]

Better hurry up.

Report: Egypt Wants to Cancel Gas Agreement
Egypt’s Petrol Minister seeking to cancel gas supply agreement with Israel, ask for a higher price, says report in Egyptian media.
by Elad Benari / Arutz Sheva / July 21, 2011

... The source said that Egypt will demand that the company should raise the value of the deal with Israel to $10 billion. The source also hinted that the recent attacks on the gas pipeline to Israel in the Sinai will continue unless implementation of the agreement in its present format is halted.

The pipeline has been the target of repeated attacks, the latest one having occurred last week. It was the fourth time since February that the pipeline had been attacked.

Infrastructures Minister Uzi Landau said after the latest blast that it signals a further erosion of “goodwill” from Cairo.

“Economic ties between Egypt and Israel are eroding,” Landau said, warning that the result of the blasts will be a hike by approximately 20 percent in the cost of electricity, as the Israel Electric Corp. is forced to use expensive diesel fuel as a substitute for natural gas from Egypt. ...

[Quinny]

I too look at life through 'crude' tinted lenses and despite all the protests that this and previous downturns were not caused by resource squeeze think the evidence is stacking up in our favour. Back in the 70's I was a young teenager and keen scientist & mathematician arguing the fact that we couldn't keep growing forever. I was of course ignored and ridiculed.

My uncle is a very experienced business person who I have spoke to about PO and his only rebuttal is that the human race is very resourceful (sic) when it comes to solving problems. When people quote facts about the housing bubble, the derivatives trading and the currency printing etc being the cause of economic problems, I see these simply as the results of such 'resourcefulness' on the behalf of TPTB.

TPTB have to keep kicking the can down the road. What politician would get elected on a manifesto of less jobs and economic contraction? What CEO would keep his position with a strategy of less sales next year?

My big worries are that this ponzi scheme carries on till the 'Cree' quote from Joe becomes reality and the environment is fubar or/and resource wars devastate the planet.

The only hope is that the 'resourcefulness' is re-directed towards real solutions to the problems we face and that some kind of weird science like cold fusion helps solve the energy problem AND we move towards permaculture based food production AND our economic and political systems evolve into ones where 'powerdown' is acceptable AND population control becomes and accepted way of life. I'm not naive enough to think that the 'greed' motive can so easily be overcome, but live in hope that people will understand that sharing and conserving the riches we possess is more important than stealing wasting and consuming them.

My 'crude' tintied glasses though force me into a position where I believe fear trumps hope and we really are past PO being a problem and we are now in PO as a prediacament territory.

[ki11ercane]

Add this into the mix and we get $500. oil.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/op ... 34786.html

There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict", Baer explained.

Somewhere on here years ago I bet someone that Israel will never attack Iran, and vice versa. I think I am still winning.

Never ever, EVAR, going to happen.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Back in the 70's I was a young teenager and keen scientist & mathematician arguing the fact that we couldn't keep growing forever. I was of course ignored and ridiculed.
...
The only hope is that the 'resourcefulness' is re-directed towards real solutions to the problems we face and that some kind of weird science like cold fusion helps solve the energy problem AND we move towards permaculture based food production AND our economic and political systems evolve into ones where 'powerdown' is acceptable AND population control becomes and accepted way of life.

You are mathematician...
So lets put some numerical values on such combination of developments.

So from the perspective of what we know about nuclear physics chances of successful scalable cold fusion are in range of 1%, much less in fact but lets give here some benefit of doubt.
Don't be confused by current Rossi's scams or attention seeking exercises.

Chances of moving towards permaculture by other means than default are in range of 10%.

Chances of voluntary embracing of powerdown I would also estimate to be in range of 10%.

Population control as an accepted way of life on the West (Chinese styled one, not an atomic war) again it is in range of 10%, perhaps less.
You should note that Chinese are beginning to consider abandoning their 1 child policy due to mounting concerns about population imbalances.
Prerequisite on the West would be to accept powerdown (but not a default version of that), and that still leave the issue open (chances 50/50 for it to be tried).
So you are ending with ca. 5%.

So now we have 1% x 10% x 10% x 5% = 0.0005% chance to succeed.

Prepare yourself for chaotic disassembly of modern civilization, Western values and style of life.
Coming soon into theater near you...

[Quinny]

I unfortunately have to agree with you EU. Suppose the emotional part of me longs for an E-Cat or something similar to be true. In fact not just something, but anything. Logically I can only think we are FUBAR.