[spot5050]

If you had $10k now in cash and had to put that money aside for 10 years, where would you put it?

[peripato]

If you had $10k now in cash and had to put that money aside for 10 years, where would you put it?

You forgot one;

Nowhere, as you cannot eat any of that shit.

[Pretorian]

"Had to" ? Are they locking you up? In that case I suggest a first class air-fare to Tahiti.

[SilentRunning]

If you had $10k now in cash and had to put that money aside for 10 years, where would you put it?

You forgot one;

Nowhere, as you cannot eat any of that shit.

Ah, but the right kind of property can be used to grow food.

[peripato]

If you had $10k now in cash and had to put that money aside for 10 years, where would you put it?

You forgot one;

Nowhere, as you cannot eat any of that shit.

Ah, but the right kind of property can be used to grow food.

True. But you'd better know before TSHTF how to grow food consistently, otherwise you're f$%ked! Just like all preparations, this take time and much effort. Something the average Joe is either incapable of, or unwilling to do.

Otherwise be like me, whose tried the food growing approach several times over the years and failed. Buy up two identical lots of long-life food stocks and other durable items and lock them away in a secure, air-conditioned, rented storage facility.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Buy up two identical lots of long-life food stocks and other durable items and lock them away in a secure, air-conditioned, rented storage facility.

I understand buying inflation hedges. I do that and have all my adult life, both with general equities and natural resource funds (emphasizing crude oil and PM's). This hedging includes a stash of both gold and silver coins as insurance against the kind of nonsense going on now. If the dollar goes bust, you have something of value when the "new" dollar is issued, and something to trade short term if there is moderate economic panic and even chaos.

What I DON'T get is the idea of doing massive food storage in a "rented storage facility". I presume this is in a city or town. If things get SO BAD that you can't get food in grocery stores -- is the plan to have some huge security force with MANY guns to protect you and your food? If not -- I don't understand the point, unless you expect to grab this stuff and bug out to your doomstead before things get THAT bad(?)

I guess I understand the doomstead thing -- but again, the roving bands of hungry folks -- you may shoot 1 or 20 or even 200, but how you actually protect your resources if "the end" comes for the economy where everything breaks down is beyond me, if you live anywhere REMOTELY close to a town. (The big gangs of really bad guys will eventually notice all the bodies and know someone has something worth protecting. Will your gang have more guns than theirs?)

Maybe I am missing some sort of condition where things get BAD but not so bad people are actually attacking each other over the remaining food? (But then again, I keep thinking that in that case, I can get it in the stores, even if it is relatively expensive and I have to choose canned vs. fresh or can't get the variety I'm used to).

I guess I can't wrap my head around the likely survivable Mad-Max scenario.

[Outcast_Searcher]

To answer the question, I choose "several of the above".

To me, the strategy that has worked best for over 30 years is asset allocation -- not panic and make short term 100% bets.

So, I'd go all of the above EXCEPT property, bonds, and cash. A high yield savings account from the likes of ING and American Express can still be had conveniently, paying about 1%, instant access to your money electronically, and FDIC insured. $10K is too little to be talking about property like a doomstead, IMO.

Now if you're talking property like a few weeks of canned goods, a good generator, a good shotgun and pistol and ammo for personal protection if there is some kind of short term panic/riot, that's different. I assumed real estate when you listed property.

[Cloud9]

What about buying the farm?

[peripato]

Buy up two identical lots of long-life food stocks and other durable items and lock them away in a secure, air-conditioned, rented storage facility.

I understand buying inflation hedges.
<snip>
What I DON'T get is the idea of doing massive food storage in a "rented storage facility". I presume this is in a city or town.
<snip>
I guess I can't wrap my head around the likely survivable Mad-Max scenario.

Yes, I have done some of this too. Bought PM's, have cash, some treasuries. But this scenario is regarding where to put an extra 10k - if you have it to spare. I'm fortunate, sale of a home and a good redundancy means I have some choices. One of which is to insure food supply, which is easily achievable with less than 10k and should be top priority. The other stuff is an added bonus, if you can afford it and presume it will still have any meaning in the future.

The rented facility is guarded 24/7. It is vermin and climate controlled, with generator backup and relatively inexpensive for long-term lessees.

If you notice the trajectory most developed countries are heading along and this is already well advanced in Europe and the United States, it's not difficult to surmise that these will be 3rd world countries within 10 to 15 years. With bread lines, lack of health care, poorly paid jobs for those in the formerly middle class lucky enough to have them, escalating violence but with the state apparatus still firmly in control - for now. Security will be one of the last things to disappear, on an institutional or personal level, I believe, under the slow descent into hell scenario.

In the original Mad Max movie this was exactly the situation the anti-hero Max was faced with as the modern world - law and order, ebbed away. Breakdown occurred in stages - not all at once. Is it so difficult to imagine this in the not too far distant future, with everything that's happening now? The unravelling of the social contract between the governed and their governments, which is accelerating? Why would you not want to be prepared for that in as many ways possible?

[ColossalContrarian]

I picked cash but property doesn't seem too bad either. I think patience for another 14 months is key. My opinion is that gold is too high and will pull back below $1100 but that's just a wag.

I would buy guns to actually. They hold their value very well.

[Pops]

The correct answer depends on the individual.

Personal assets and abilities decides the how of action, an assessment of the current/future situation and individual concerns/goals decides the what and when.

Just exactly like every self-help book has ever advised:

Make an assessment of where you are today: your assets and abilities, obligations and liabilities and a forecast of the future you believe in

Create a list of concerns and desires and a plan to deal with each

Prioritize your short/medium/long term goals and begin work

Constantly review progress and conditions and adjust

If really bad things happen on a global scale, you won't be able to preserve today's typical lifestyle no matter where you stash money. And if really good things happen, it likewise will not have mattered much where you invested your money.

I guess I'm saying it is better to develop a resilient life - there is no perfect portfolio.


But, to answer the question, I'd keep it in cash & savings simply because things are unsettled right now.

[the48thronin]

the right kind of food can be stored for 10 years... and the price will go DOWN? Yeah right.

[Narz]

Buy up two identical lots of long-life food stocks and other durable items and lock them away in a secure, air-conditioned, rented storage facility.

And then when TSHTF you just move in there & live in the shed with your food for five years until the zombies starve? Where will you take a crap?

Honestly, I can't think of a worse way to spend $10K. And when TSHTF I'm assuming the A/C will cut off anyway.

I voted property. Of course you can't buy much with $10K so maybe I should have voted cash. I'd be a little nervous not to be able to touch cash for 10 years though. I'd probably just save the cash, keep it liquid & hope I have enough time to plan what to do with it.

[patience]

I didn't vote. IMHO, It isn't practical to leave an investment in one thing for 10 years, with the world situation as fluid as it is today. The old "buy and hold" investment strategy only works in times of stability and growth, unless one is very lucky. I believe that the answer is to dance from one thing to another in slow steps, as one thing becomes more advantageous than another, this applying only to "investment funds", not one's basic existence.

I agree with Pops. Maintain resiliency--there is no perfect portfolio.

[spot5050]

But, to answer the question, I'd keep it in cash & savings simply because things are unsettled right now.

I'm going the other way. I voted for gold. I'll post the names of the winners in ten years, if I'm still around.

The reason I asked the question and am interested in peoples answers is that governments are printing money again, thereby screwing anyone with savings. If you have a savings account that pays 1% per anum and inflation is 6% per anum, your savings are losing their value by net 5%. That means your savings will halve in value every 14 years.

On the other hand, if you are £10k in debt and paying 2% interest on the debt, with inflation at 6% your debt would be falling in value by net 4% per anum. That means the value of your debt would halve every 17.5 years.

In those circumstances, remarkably it's better to be in debt than in credit.

Many governments have enormous debts and pay very low interest rates on their debts. Those governments are printing money to deliberately create inflation because in doing so, they reduce the value of their own debts. Unfortunately in the process they make it pointless for the rest of us to put money aside for a rainy day.

As a kid I was encouraged to save money. In 2011 that advice is bad advice.

[cephalotus]

Shares: 10k is not enough to diversify, so the risk is high. If you want to speculate and can stand a massive loss...

Bonds: Not currently

Property: Sure, if it is useful today. If not: You can always buy later if you have cash...

Gold: Way to expensive now.

Cash: Will give you flexibility. That's what I would do, if 10k is all that you have. You can pay the new car, if the old gets broken...

Savings account: only very low interest rates. I would prefer the flexibility of cash. Also interest rates will most likely raise sooner or later (inflation!)

[evilgenius]

As soon as the investment side of things corrects to the actual level of money in the money supply in the wake of so many home mortgage defaults then all assets, including gold, will take a tumble. Cash is the only safe place to be in such a time!

It is debt which creates more money in the money supply. The defaulting on debt contracts the money supply. Right now there is way too much money mis-allocated in investments. That money needs to find its way to the street via a reorganization of how business appreciates labor, where consumers can gradually get hold of it. The quickest and best way is through a tax redistribution from the truly wealthy to the economy. Tax them and they will not have as much to invest. Less money on the part of the rich to invest will mean a marginal rate of growth in investment which may be negative. To balk here invites a whole host of crash scenarios.

[Pops]

As a kid I was encouraged to save money. In 2011 that advice is bad advice.

Yea, I agree. I hate to sound like a doomer but most everything seems different right now - even OF2 admitted today the economy isn't expanding - or even recovered!

I've never thought much of gold simply because it's value is limited to what the gold guy is willing to pay, whereas cash money is, well, cash money - can't get more "fungible" than that.



Looks pretty high as an investment but hey, lots of people have lots of money there so who am I to say? I guess I pretty well agree with JM Greer (archdruid) that if bad things happen it is going to be impossible to preserve "wealth" in any fashion so best to use it to learn a different way forward.


Anyway, good luck, bump up this thread in 2021 and we'll talk about what happened!

[spot5050]

>>bump up this thread in 2021

I'll post results in 10 years if I'm still around.

[AgentR11]

I've never thought much of gold simply because it's value is limited to what the gold guy is willing to pay, whereas cash money is, well, cash money - can't get more "fungible" than that.

The point of having some gold is to put some cushion between yourself, and the valuation of your particular currencies. The gold guy on the corner is willing to pay X, because a larger financial player is willing to pay him X+100; its not that the gold guy cares to hold much gold. A larger financial player will pay X+100 because that gold can be bought and sold internationally, and can just as easily be turned into Euro or Yen or Baht as it can dollars. Thus, its value is as real as it gets, and probably more reliable than any individual nations currency.