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Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

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Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 20 Aug 2011, 18:39:22

Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

We’re headed for extinction via global climate change

It’s hotter than it used to be, but not as hot as it’s going to be. The political response to this now-obvious information is to suspend the scientist bearing the bad news. Which, of course, is no surprise at all: As Australian climate scientist Gideon Polya points out, the United States must cease production of greenhouse gases within 3.1 years if we are to avoid catastrophic runaway greenhouse. I think Polya is optimistic, and I don’t think Obama’s on-board with the attendant collapse of the U.S. industrial economy.

Apparently — too little, too late — a couple people have noticed a few facts about Obama. This “awakening” might explain why his political support is headed south at a rapid clip.

...

We’re headed for extinction via environmental collapse

Nature is bankrupt, just like Wall Street and the USA. Thanks for playing, but you lose. The banksters on Wall Street “win.” But only in the short term. In the long run, we’re all dead (as first stated by John Maynard Keynes).

Among the consequences of taking down more than 200 species each day: at some point, the species we take into the abyss is Homo sapiens (the wise ape). The vanishing point draws nearer every day. Our response, in the industrialized world: Bring on the toys. Burn all fossil fuels. Harvest the rain forests and strip-mine the soil. Pollute the water, eat the seed bank.

And, most importantly, figure out how we can make a few bucks as the world burns.

...

We’re headed for extinction via nuclear meltdown

Safely shuttering a nuclear power plant requires a decade or two of careful planning. Far sooner, we’ll complete the ongoing collapse of the industrial economy. This is a source of my nuclear nightmares.

When the world’s 442 nuclear power plants melt down catastrophically, we’ve entered an extinction event. Think clusterfukushima, times 400. Ionizing radiation could, and probably will, destroy every terrestrial organism and, therefore, every marine and freshwater organism.


...

Meanwhile, back on Wall Street

The Securities and Exchange Commission is busily covering up Wall Street crimes, just as they did during the last presidential administration. And, as it turns out, they’ve been performing this trick for two decades. Finally, though, the S&P is taking the U.S. to the woodshed.

The S&P knows what the media and politicians know: U.S. national debt isn’t really $14 trillion and change, as we’ve been led to believe. In fact, it exceeds $200 trillion. And, back when it was a mere $10.5 trillion, it exceeded the value of all circulating currencies as well as all the gold ever mined. It cannot be paid off, ever. The response will be default. With luck, it’ll happen quickly and completely, thus sending us directly to the new dark age (with the post-industrial Stone Age soon to follow).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-three-paths-near-term-human-extinction


Interesting what he says about the nuke plants. I made that same point on this forum back when we were talking about Fukushima -- when collapse starts, WHAT HAPPENS TO ALL THE NUKE PLANTS? In a collapse of civilization, nuclear plants won't get safely shut down and the waste safely stored. They'll just be abandoned.

On the road to collapse, before the nuke plants are abandoned altogether, we'll see more meltdowns. Think Chernobyl -- that happened in they dying days of Soviet empire. Probably safe to say Chernobyl didn't have the best funding and state of the art operation. As collapse ensues, systems fall apart, people get sloppy. You can see this in North Korea; they've had famines before, but now the *soldiers* are going hungry too. What happens when a nuke plant or nuke missile crew hasn't eaten for two weeks?

The author's other two points are that capitalism itself is collapsing, and he sounds like Cid Yama on the runaway warming doom.

So pick your poision guys.. three ways to collapse.. runaway warming doom, econodoom, or nuke doom, maybe all three. And this guy didn't even mention peak oil! :|
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Novus » Sat 20 Aug 2011, 19:37:59

The 4th horseman of the Apocalypse is Peak Oil. All of this doom is charging right at us. Wall Street is a numbers game where they try to paper over the losses stemming from the looting of society. This numbers game will continue until Peak oil and Climate change will force the numbers game to come to an end. This comes when there is no longer enough food to feed everyone and no longer enough oil to run the Industry and no amount of paper printing can change that. This will be a Peak Oil and Climate change triggered event. At that point civil society ends and it is every man for himself. Some Nuclear plants will be abandoned on the spot while others will be run haphazardly with no maintenance until they explode. Then we have our mass extinction event.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby diemos » Sat 20 Aug 2011, 20:19:41

Novus wrote:Some Nuclear plants will be abandoned on the spot while others will be run haphazardly with no maintenance until they explode.


And most will be shut down with active cooling for two years until the spent fuel is ready for dry cask storage. Then it will be stored.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_cask_storage
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby americandream » Sat 20 Aug 2011, 20:29:30

Novus wrote:The 4th horseman of the Apocalypse is Peak Oil. All of this doom is charging right at us. Wall Street is a numbers game where they try to paper over the losses stemming from the looting of society. This numbers game will continue until Peak oil and Climate change will force the numbers game to come to an end. This comes when there is no longer enough food to feed everyone and no longer enough oil to run the Industry and no amount of paper printing can change that. This will be a Peak Oil and Climate change triggered event. At that point civil society ends and it is every man for himself. Some Nuclear plants will be abandoned on the spot while others will be run haphazardly with no maintenance until they explode. Then we have our mass extinction event.


Very possibly. If the level of political acumen is low on the planet, very likely.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 20 Aug 2011, 20:31:16

The banksters on Wall Street “win.” But only in the short term.


The root problem underlying most of these extinction scenarios is that humans are programmed to value short-term gratification over long-term considerations. 95% of human thought goes into short-term issues; and only a tiny percentage of human energies is geared toward long-term issues.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Novus » Sat 20 Aug 2011, 21:49:05

diemos wrote:
Novus wrote:Some Nuclear plants will be abandoned on the spot while others will be run haphazardly with no maintenance until they explode.


And most will be shut down with active cooling for two years until the spent fuel is ready for dry cask storage. Then it will be stored.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_cask_storage


That requires non-bankrupt utilities and infrastructure in place and 20 years of planning to shut down all 440 nuclear plants world wide. If the economy collapses and governments default most nuclear plants will end up like Fukushima or Chernobyl or worse.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Fiddlerdave » Sat 20 Aug 2011, 22:10:06

It would be good to factor in the heavy desire by locals to keep a nuclear plant operating in the midst of collapse when the immense infrastructure needed to keep coal and natural gas power plants functional may be inoperable.

Trains, ships, and the refined petroleum to operate power plants other than nuclear may be very hard to get, so the nuclear power plants could be kept running by local forces until overrun by forces that would have no idea how to keep the power plants going.

Very many organized nuclear plant shutdowns are unlikely.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby diemos » Sat 20 Aug 2011, 22:45:53

Novus wrote:That requires non-bankrupt utilities and infrastructure in place and 20 years of planning to shut down all 440 nuclear plants world wide.


The Plan:

1. SCRAM the reactors.
2. Keep cooling on for 2 years.
3. Drain water.
4. Remove core.
5. Put in dry casks.
6. Move dry casks to desert.
7. Abandon plant.
8. Abandon casks.

Not a particularly large effort.
Doesn't require an elaborate plan.
Might have some unfortunate side effects in a 1000 years or so but no immediate Armageddon.

If you're worried about people disturbing the waste in a 1000 years then deliberately contaminate the area around the casks so that anyone who strays onto the site will quickly die.

The legend of "the forbidden desert" that no one ever comes back from will keep people away. Not that there's a lot of people in a waterless wasteland.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Novus » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 01:48:58

diemos wrote:The Plan:
1. SCRAM the reactors.
2. Keep cooling on for 2 years.
3. Drain water.
4. Remove core.
5. Put in dry casks.
6. Move dry casks to desert.
7. Abandon plant.
8. Abandon casks. ...

I am NOT worried about the next 1000 years. I am worried about the next 10 to 20. That plan assumes BAU maintains itself and that we start the shutdowns Today. Remember there are 440 of these pants that need to be shut down while we still have the resources to carry out that plan. Realistically they need to start shutting down today before BAU comes to an end.

A Post BAU shut down would look something like this:
- SCRAM will be forced under major duress from government default and economic crisis and fuel shortages.
- Utilities who run the plants need debt to run their operations like every other business so if their is hyper inflation going on they will be forced to shut down.
- Running the cooling system after SCRAM requires outside electrical grid
- If the grid is down then cooling would have to be done with diesel generators
- A few unpaid workers will watch the plant for a little while probably until the diesel runs out
- After that it is Fukushima or worse
-
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 01:52:32

diemos wrote:1. SCRAM the reactors.
2. Keep cooling on for 2 years.
3. Drain water.
4. Remove core.
5. Put in dry casks.
6. Move dry casks to desert.
7. Abandon plant.
8. Abandon casks.

Not a particularly large effort.
Doesn't require an elaborate plan.


Nuke plants would be maintained up until the point they can't anymore. They're never going to be preemptively shut down and the waste safely stored.

This list you made there actually is "a particularly large effort." It's a particularly large effort just to get veggies from Mexico or Chile to someone's table in New York City. We don't see the supply chain as all that complex because it's never failed and we're so used to it.

But if it fails.. if even nuke plant workers haven't eaten for two weeks and there's chaos in the streets.. the 8 point plan you laid out will be impossible.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Cog » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 07:28:48

From a purely American point of view, we could eke out an existence, albeit not one that represents BAU, for quite some time on the 5 mbd that we produce. As long as that meets the needs for food production, riots and unrest will be localized and brutally put down. If climate change wrecks our ability to grow food with that limited US oil production then all bets are off and we will rapidly descend to the Stone Age.

As has been mentioned, oil is behind everything we consider business as usual. IMO the current economic slow down started when oil reached sustained prices of above $95/bbl. Even our attempts with QE1 and 2 couldn't change the effect that high priced oil has on our economy.

I'm not a believer in fast crash barring nuclear war. Just the same grinding down punctuated by crisis after crisis. If this grind down is slow enough humans can adapt to a lower energy lifestyle.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Cloud9 » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 08:32:45

Extinction Level Event and social break down is not the same thing. We lost agriculture for a couple of years in much of the world in 536 a.d.

http://www.ees1.lanl.gov/Wohletz/Krakatau.htm

While this event was the end of the world for millions, it was not the end of the world for all. While most of us agree that living in a place like Miami would be fraught with dangers should the lights go out; the assumption that some people will not survive that event is not supported by history.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby diemos » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:38:13

Novus wrote:- Utilities who run the plants need debt to run their operations like every other business so if their is hyper inflation going on they will be forced to shut down.
- A few unpaid workers will watch the plant for a little while probably until the diesel runs out
-


An existing, operating nuclear plant is a cash cow. Most of a nuclear plant's costs are upfront capital costs.

I see exactly the opposite. The plants won't crash because BAU fails. Since the marginal cost of electricity from an existing plant is essentially zero they'll be kept in operation until they literally fall apart from age.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby ian807 » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 11:31:49

diemos wrote:I see exactly the opposite. The plants won't crash because BAU fails. Since the marginal cost of electricity from an existing plant is essentially zero they'll be kept in operation until they literally fall apart from age.

And as they literally fall apart, then what happens? All the uranium politely stops putting out those pesky neutrons? Nothing melts down, leaks, or creates intermittent explosions to throw it all up into the air, as happened at Fukashima? The death throes of a nuclear plant in a decaying society unable to care for them any longer does not promise to be either consistent or harmless. No prior culture had this type of threat on this scale. There are a lot of nuclear facilities in the world and I seriously doubt that each and every one will be retired gracefully and harmlessly.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby diemos » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 11:53:37

ian807 wrote:And as they literally fall apart, then what happens?


Bad things. Very bad things.

ian807 wrote:There are a lot of nuclear facilities in the world and I seriously doubt that each and every one will be retired gracefully and harmlessly.


Me too. They could be. But they won't.

Not because of any technological limitation but because it is just not our nature to choose to do so.

But then that's the core irony underlying everything that we talk about on this site. There's no technical limitation stopping us from turning the world into a paradise. It's just not our nature to ever choose to do so.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 19:56:59

There were three possibilities listed. Why focus on just this one?
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby peeker01 » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 20:15:16

Nonsense. I love the 3.1 year thing. Like his science is accurate to the month.
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby JohnRM » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 22:24:15

Relax, everyone. Everything is going to be okay. Yes, we are on the verge of a great change for our entire civilization, but we will perservere. There will be some pain and many may perish in the interim, but we will make it. We will adapt. We will find a way to carry on, even with modern industrial civilization. This experiment is not over, yet.
"The world is my country, all mankind are my brethren, and to do good is my religion." -- Thomas Paine
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Re: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sun 21 Aug 2011, 23:37:20

Sort of a "Rah, Rah, cockroaches got nothing on us humans!" speech, JohnRM? :wink:
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